Thursday Jan.02, 2020

2020 = Year of the Electric Car (*maybe)

"_Anyone got an extra car cord I can borrow?_"
"_Anyone got an extra car cord I can borrow?_"

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TBD

Is 2020 the Year of the Electric Car? Tesla, VW, and Ford say yes (Honda disagrees)

Turn me on with your electric wheel... Mother Earth isn't a fan of burning gas — So is 2020 the year we switch to something else? The verdict is: a (strong) maybe. Carmakers spent the final week of 2019 humblebragging their future-focused electrification accomplishments.

  • Ford announced it's sold out of pre-orders for the first electric car it's actually serious about: Mustang Mach-E (this ain't no "compliance car").
  • Tesla just delivered its first 15 models produced in China, capping an insane under 1 year start-to-finish construction of its car-pumping Shanghai Gigafactory.
  • VW can't contain its e-citement, so it's accelerated its goal to produce 1M fully electric cars by 2023 instead of 2025.

Honda isn't convinced... The Boston Red Sox to Toyota's Yankees, Honda's experience with electric goes back to '99 (remember that salamander-looking Insight?). So its CEO is qualified to say he's "not sure" the world wants full-electric cars yet. Instead, Honda's focused on improving fuel efficiency with ybrid tech and won't go full electric "anytime soon."

Electric's 2 biggest issues = Price + Battery... If you haven't bought an electric car, it's probably because they're too expensive or you're nervous about running out of juice mid-ride (aka "range anxiety"). Carmakers know that — here are some ways they're trying to fix it:

  • Price problem: Analysts think e-cars won't be price-competitive until 2024-ish when battery prices fall more. Meantime, Tesla's China plant can produce cheaper, and tariff-free, for Chinese buyers.
  • Battery problem: Ford's Mach-E boasts a 300-mile option that 80% of pre-orders include. And VW is building a nationwide charging network so you can plug in mid-bathroom pitstop.
Taxed

Google is ending the ol' "Double Irish, Dutch Sandwich" tax elimination strategy

New New Year's Resolution... Stop using a sketchy international scheme with a charming name to sneak out of US taxes. Instead of going to the gym more, Google's parent company Alphabet will end its "Double Irish, Dutch Sandwich" tax minimization strategy in 2020 — they saved billions and only paid a single-digit tax rate on money earned outside the US through this ~~structure~~ loophole.

It sounds like a bar order, and reads like a Spring Break itinerary... but it's actually a perfectly legal travel route for money that won't trigger US income taxes or Europe's witholding taxes — and those happen to be most of Google's profits abroad. Here's how the cash moves:

  • The $$$ earned abroad is funneled to an Irish subsidiary ➡️ then moved to a Dutch holding company ➡️ then sent to an Irish shell company in Bermuda
  • That Bermuda part is key because the island has no corporate income tax — So that's where Google reports the income earned internationally.
  • $25B of Google's money made this voyage last year, up from $23B in 2017.

Tax policy can move economies... It isn't just that the corporate tax rate for US companies has been cut from 35% to 21%. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 now lets American companies bring back cash they made/hoarded abroad without paying additional US taxes. Now Google can bring back its billions in overseas cash to potentially invest in the US — or return to shareholders as dividends.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • NRD: It's "National Returns Day" — and UPS expects to ship back 1.9M gifts for it
  • Served: Uber and Postmates sue California over the gig-rights worker law, calling it unconstitutional (the law thinks your Uber driver earned full-tme worker status)
  • Designed: Amazon's HQ2 in Virginia will break ground soon — the outside looks brutally boring, but the parks around it are bask-worthy
  • Heard: China's Tencent Holdings leads a crew to acquire 10% of Universal Music, the music label behind The Beatles and Lady Gaga
  • Investigate: A US auto safety agency will probe a fatal Tesla crash that may have been tied to the autopilot function
  • Upcoming: Walmart's CEO thinks "virtual changing rooms" are coming before the end of this new decade

Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Google, Uber, Amazon, and Tesla

ID: 1046827

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales