Monday Aug.23, 2021

🍎 Apple's 10-year evolution

_2031 vibes: "Find My Planet" [mikkelwilliam/E+ via GettyImages]_
_2031 vibes: "Find My Planet" [mikkelwilliam/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Elon's SpaceX is hiring a “Spaceport Mixologist" to whip up space-themed cocktails at its Texas rocket factory. We'll wait for the "International Space Station Mixologist" position to open — if the $450K space flight is covered.

Stocks fell for the week after the Fed suggested it's leaning toward rolling back its easy money policy. Over the weekend, a judge ruled that Prop 22 is unconstitutional. Prop 22: the ballot measure passed by CA voters that classifies gig drivers as independent contractors.

Anniversary

10 years of Tim Cook: how Apple and Big Tech have evolved and taken over the market

Post-turtle neck era... Tomorrow marks the 10-year anniversary of Tim Cook becoming Apple's CEO, replacing founder Steve Jobs. Jobs was a creative visionary who pioneered the revolution from the PC to mobile era. Cook has been more of an operational magician. But how has the tech giant changed under his reign? A big part of it is Cook's ability to scale.

  • #s: 72M iPhones sold in 2011, vs. an estimated 240-250M in 2021. Since 2011, the number of App Store apps has more than quadrupled to 2M today.
  • Top-selling smartphone: In 2011, it was the Samsung Galaxy SII — the iPhone 4 ranked 4th. In 2021, the top-four sellers are all iPhones.
  • Value: In 2011, Apple hit a $337B market cap, surpassing Exxon to become Earth's most valuable company. Today, it's worth $2.5T — still the most valuable.
  • Products: In 2011, Apple unveiled the new iPod touch and iPod nano (#RIP). In Cook-era 2015 we got Apple Watch, followed closely by AirPods.

Tim Cooking in the kitchen... iPhone is still the core of Apple, and brings in more than half its sales. But Apple's biggest shifts under Cook have been scaling services and elevating privacy.

  • Services: In 2011, Services consisted mainly of iTunes, App Store, and iCloud. Now, Apple's self-feeding ecosystem has expanded to include TV streaming, fitness, games, and even a services bundle, launched last year.
  • Privacy: Apple has become a leader in privacy — from Face ID to the latest iOS upgrade, which lets users decide whether to let apps track them for ads. But it's recently received unprecedented backlash over a new anti-child pornography measure.
  • Through the App Store and its consumer-friendly devices, Apple has also contributed to the growth of other tech giants. About that...

Tech has taken over the market... When Jobs was CEO, the top five most valuable companies in the Fortune 500 were: Exxon, Apple, Microsoft, Chevron, and Berkshire Hathaway. Now, the top five most valuable companies are all tech: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook — and they make up 23% of the S&P 500's total value. Tech companies have contributed to an explosion of wealth. Think: jobs, apps, and soaring stock prices. But their immense scale and power has raised concerns among lawmakers and consumers, leading to growing antitrust measures around the world today.

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

Drop the triple-shot latte... The cost of coffee beans has jumped 43% so far this year. An unusual frost in Brazil — the world’s #1 coffee producer — is contributing to soaring java prices. Companies know that consumers hate paying extra for the same products. Now, some java giants may consider "swapflation" to deal with rising costs. AKA: swapping out popular arabica beans for cheaper, but less premium, robusta beans. We could see it in other products, too.

Powell's party... might be nearing its end. To help the economy, the Fed has added trillions to the money supply through bond-buying sprees. That brought us near-zero interest rates during the pandemic, which helped boost spending. Think: lower rates for mortgages, credit cards, and business loans. But as the US economy recovers and prices continue to rise (#inflation), the central bank is considering pulling back on its economy-supporting policy later this year.

Events

Coming up this week...

Loose-fit jeans = the new sweatpants... Retailers like Gap and Nordstrom boosted online sales last year, even though total sales slumped. As we leave behind pandemic PJs and return to stores for "going out" fits, clothing retailers have a shopportunity to boost sales online and IRL. We’ll see how that's panning out when Gap, Nordstrom, Abercrombie, and Urban Outfitters report earnings this week.

Dollar stores are on a roll... but it's not toilet paper. Last year, Dollar Tree and Dollar General thrived as we stockpiled TP, detergent, and $2 Cool Whip. But sales slumped last quarter, failing to keep pace with last year’s panic purchasing. Still, the dollar dynasties are doing better than they were pre-pandemic. We’ll see if they can keep the good times rolling — even without TP — when they report earnings on Thursday.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Brakes: A new investigation into Tesla's Autopilot feature may force the EV giant to stop “rounding up” in its marketing.
  • Meta: Facebook launched a Sims-like VR office that opens the door to a metaverse future (not just for work).
  • Block: US lawmakers are calling for a ’Tok block after China took a stake in TikTok's sister company.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Calculate: How much you need to earn to make a living wage in your area.
  • Read: The 50 best sci-fi and fantasy books of the past decade.
  • Work: How to land a job you don't feel qualified for.
  • Laugh: The link between happiness and a sense of humor.
  • Do: The #1 piece of advice for young workers, according to LinkedIn (and Jeff Bezos).

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from JD.com and Palo Alto Networks
  • Tuesday: New home sales. Earnings expected from Intuit, Pinduoduo, Best Buy, Nordstrom, and Urban Outfitters
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Salesforce, Royal Bank of Canada, Autodesk, Ulta Beauty, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Zuora
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from TD Bank, Dell, Dollar General, HP, Peloton, Dollar Tree, J.M. Smucker Company, Gap, and Abercrombie & Fitch
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Big Lots

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Google, and Amazon

ID: 1793185

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Markets

Carvana’s stock is sometimes up, sometimes down, always volatile

Shares in online car seller Carvana surged some 34% yesterday, continuing their recent resurgence. That rebound has made the father-son duo behind the company some $11B since late 2022 — a period when the stock was dropping as much as 40% in a single day, and was teetering on the verge of insolvency as creditors explored options to restructure its debt.

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

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$110B

Apple announced a massive $110B boost in share buybacks — the biggest of all time. That’s even higher than the $90 billion analysts expected. For context in the last 12 years Apple spent a total of $650 billion buying back its own stock. The entire S&P 500 did $795 billion last year. That certainly softens the blow from a 4% decrease in revenue.

Ozempic, Wegovy drive Novo Nordisk profits up

Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell on Thursday, as investors digested the latest hard numbers from the maker of heavily-hyped drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

For the record, sales of both continue to explode, though sales of Wegovy, which more than doubled to kr. 9.8B, came in about 10% below analyst expectations. Ozempic sales, which slowed, actually were better than expectations.

In Danish currency terms, Q1 profit jumped 28% for the company, which is based in suburban Copenhagen. Novo Nordisk’s market value of roughly $570 billion is now larger than the entire Danish economy.

Luke Kawa
5/2/24

Short sellers are getting squeezed on Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix

Shares of Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix were ripping Thursday morning.

These companies don’t have too much in common from a business operations standpoint — one makes batteries, another needs batteries, and one sells furniture and rugs that really tie the room together.

What they do have in common right now though: traders were betting on their shares to fall, and each released quarterly earnings reports either after the market closed on Wednesday or on Thursday morning that weren’t as bad as feared, in one way or another.

As of mid-April, short interest as a percentage of equity float for these stocks ranged from 26% (Wayfair) to 31% (Enovix), according to exchange data.

Betting against two of these companies had paid off so far this year, with Carvana being the exception. Shares of the used-car retailer were up 78% heading into Thursday’s session versus Wayfair (-14%), and Enovix (-47%). For comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 5.8 percent year-to-date.

Hat tip to Tom Hearden, senior trader at Skylands Capital, for bringing this to our attention.

World

Japan's yen is lassoed to the dollar, for better or for worse

What happens in the US economy doesn’t stay there: the Fed’s choice to keep interest rates unchanged could increase pressure pushing down the Japanese yen. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell held interest rates steady at a two-decade high. 

Before sticky interest-rates were announced, the yen on Monday flirted with (but didn’t quite hit) a 160:1 conversion rate with the US dollar. It’s widely thought that Japanese authorities intervened to prop up the yen by buying yen and selling dollars. But the suspected trading spree barely budged the yen’s value, which is the weakest it’s been vs. the dollar since the ’80s. 

ÂĄ157 to $1

Japan’s especially sensitive to US interest-rate decisions because its own rates are ultra-low. The problem: investors buy yen at low borrowing rates but quickly convert it to another currency for higher returns. 

Even just the anticipation (more like dread) of rate-cut delays has contributed to the yen’s slide. When it comes to when the Fed expects confidence to rise enough to slash rates, Powell on Wednesday left investors on read with a big “IDK.”