Thursday May.28, 2020

📸 YouTube gets Insta-Zucked

Instagram: "_Beautiful day in Ibiza... also link in bio for this CBD wine_"
Instagram: "_Beautiful day in Ibiza... also link in bio for this CBD wine_"

Hey Snackers,

Important Unicorn update: scientists finally recorded the mystical sounds of the "Arctic Unicorn" (aka, the narwhal). The narwhals' whistles and clicks paired with the crackling sounds of glacial fjords make for a relaxing aquatic track (waiting for the Narwhal ASMR channel).

Markets rallied again on hopes for smooth economic reopenings across the US — the Dow closed above 25K for the first time since March, and the S&P 500 made it back above its 200-day moving average.

Stream

Instagram will share ad revenue with influencers for the first time ever

Less CBD lotions on your Insta feed... Something we can all get behind. And it might happen now that Facebook-owned Instagram is adopting YouTube's money-maker strategy: ad revenue sharing with content creators. It starts with IGTV, the one Instagram feature that you (probably) never use:

  • IGTV: Instagram launched the video app back in 2018 to compete with YouTube. You can use it separately, or directly through the Insta app to watch/upload up to 1 hour of video.
  • Insta will start running ads on IGTV, then give creators a 55% cut of revenue from their vids (Google has the same split for YouTube creators — #Zucked).

This is a first... In 2019, Instagram made $20B on the ads it placed in your feed and between friends' stories — that accounted for 25% of Facebook's total revenue. But Instagram has never shared ad revenue with creators before (even though creators drive usage):

  • "Influencer marketing" is the main way creators can monetize their Insta followings — eg: "casually" posing with a tub of protein powder or an oversized watch in the Maldives.
  • "Revenue sharing" on IGTV gives influencers a 2nd (and possibly much larger) money-making stream for their personal brands.

It's all about the user-generated content... Creators follow the ad bucks. By intro'ing revenue-sharing, Instagram may woo more famous creators onto IGTV. More popular creators = more popular content = more users = more ad money for Facebook. If Instagram's 1B+ users start tuning into IGTV to see their favorite YouTuber, Alphabet (YouTube's owner) is in a Zuck load of trouble.

Preserve

The Unicorn that won't expire: Apeel raises $250M for food preservation

Bringing sex apeel to food waste solutions... Apeel Sciences is like an anti-aging cream, but for your avocados. And it just hit a $1B+ valuation after raising $250M from investors like Oprah, Singapore's government, and Katy Perry (waiting for the invite to the investor conference);

  • Today, 40% of food grown goes to waste, according to Apeel. And it's worse in the corona-conomy: with restaurants and colleges closed, milk is being dumped and veggies are turning to mulch.
  • Apeel offers a food-preserving solution: Its proprietary plant-based product acts like a 2nd peel on your fruit's skin, slowing water loss and oxidation (aka, rotting). That can triple shelf-life of produce - so far this year, Apeel saved 20M pieces of fruit.
  • The catch: Right now, it's only "apeeling" avocados, asparagus, lemons, and limes. Eventually, it could expand to the wider world of fruits and veggies.

You can't buy Apeel (directly)... Apeel's customers are big grocery chains like Kroger that are looking to shrink their "shrinkage" — aka, how many fruits they have in store vs. how many they can actually sell (no one wants the mush avocado). By reducing food inventory that gets wasted, Trader Joe's can save big money.

"Is this avo apeeled?"... If consumers start to ask that question, Apeel has won. Brand labels matter — if shoppers associate Apeel with 3X shelf life, it could gain consumer love (and even more investor $$$). Slapping a label on it for consumers like you and us could boost sales for Apeel, retailers, and fruit producers.

Drive

Amazon might acquire a self-driving tech company to help automate deliveries

"Disneyland on the streets"... What Zoox wants to bring to the world — and don't call it a robo-taxi or self-driving car service: Zoox wants to build "an advanced mobility service." In 2018, the self-driving car company (sorry) hit a $3.2B valuation. Now, it might get acquired by Amazon ... but reportedly at a lower value.

  • Zoox tried to differentiate itself by bringing the triple whammy of autonomous vehicles together as one: self-driving, electric, taxi. That brought in big investment bucks. But now...
  • Bigger competitors are going for that same hat-trick: Uber acquired a self-driving startup, GM snatched up Cruise Automation, Google's Waymo started testing self-driving taxis, and Tesla has said electric robotaxis will be ready this year.

Amazon might get Zoox at a discount... Investors aren't so hot on Zoox anymore now that all these bigger, better-funded companies are going for the robotaxi gold. Amazon is seizing the moment to level up its driverless tech ambitions, without having to build anything from the ground up. Zoox gets some much needed cash, and Amazon gets some much desired tech.

If automation is involved, Amazon is probably interested... Amazon is all about speed, effectiveness, and cost. Where it can cut out expensive humans for tireless robots, it likely will.

  • In 2012, Amazon paid $775M to acquire robotics startup Kiva Systems — now it has 10K of their robots in warehouses fulfilling orders (and potentially saving it billions).
  • Last year, Amazon invested $530M in self-driving tech company Aurora Innovation — by acquiring Zoox, Amazon could get even closer to its goal of having driverless vehicles deliver its goods.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Bubi: Mobile-first Quibi adds AirPlay streaming in hopes that'll attract more viewers — people aren't Quibi-ing while subway-ing (and advertisers want to bail).
  • Magical: Disney plans to reopen its Florida Magic Kingdom on July 11th, followed by Epcot on July 15th (with limited attendance and mandatory mask-wearing).
  • Electric: GE sells its lightbulb biz for $250M, dropping its last direct link to consumers.
  • Off: Boeing will lay off nearly 7K workers this week for a total of 12K job losses, but it's also re-starting 737 production.
  • Rent: Advantage files for bankruptcy, just a few days after its rental car peer Hertz did the same (both formerly private equity owned, both left heavily indebted).

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Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Alphabet and Amazon

ID: 1199130

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World

Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
Power

$2T is the new $1T

Alphabet’s phenomenal earnings yesterday was enough to push the search giant’s market cap beyond $2 trillion, joining the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24
Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).