Wednesday Jun.01, 2022

🛢️ Russia gets embargoed

Russia’s in for a crude awakening (Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
Russia’s in for a crude awakening (Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Don’t call it “le streaming”: France has banned the use of English gaming words in a bid to reduce the influence of tech companies. Esports will now be “jeu vidéo de compétition.” Even catchier: “jeu vidéo en nuage” (cloud gaming).

Stocks fell yesterday, capping a turbulent month of trading. The S&P ended May flat after nearly slumping into a bear market, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed another 2% in May.

Embargoed

The EU bans most Russian oil, but an insurance ban could hit Moscow where it really hurts

Crude crackdown… The EU’s planning its toughest restrictions on Russia yet, as Moscow enters its fourth month of fighting in Ukraine. Today EU officials are expected to greenlight their sixth sanctions package, which includes an embargo of Russian oil. Energy prices surged on the news, with Brent crude (aka: the international benchmark) hitting $120/barrel.

  • What’s included: A ban on Russian oil that comes into the EU by sea, which would be 90% of all oil imports by the end of the year.
  • What’s not: There’s an exemption for oil coming in by pipeline (the remaining 10%), a concession made for the landlocked Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic.

A trifecta of oil problems… could be about to spill over. While Russia’s war on Ukraine is already aggravating the global oil crunch, experts say an embargo could spur an even bigger ripple effect for insatiable energy markets.

  • In the US: The release of 1M barrels of oil a day from the strategic reserve hasn't been enough to temper soaring pump prices as summer travel szn kicks off.
  • In China: The loosening of Covid lockdowns in cities like Shanghai could supercharge demand as the world's second-largest oil consumer prepares to reopen.
  • Everywhere else: Refineries are already running at full capacity — and still struggling to meet demand.

Europe has another sanction up its sleeve… Russia’s still exporting oil to willing buyers like China and India (at discounted prices). One thing that could make that harder: cutting off the ability to insure tankers carrying Russian crude. The UK and EU — which control much of the maritime-insurance industry — are reportedly about to do just that. If Moscow can't insure its tankers, it’ll be effectively cut off from exporting oil by sea. Less oil on the market = even higher prices for the world.

Speed

“Top Gun” soars to a box-office record, proving the big screen’s back — for big franchises anyway

Tom Cruise to the rescue… 36 years after the original “Top Gun” premiered, “Mav” is back in the cockpit — and not a moment too soon for the movie biz. “Top Gun: Maverick” opened to $156M at the US box office, a new Memorial Day-weekend record. After being postponed several times because of the pandemic, “Top Gun” may signal a summer movie rebound:

  • Takeoff: Shares of Paramount, which produced the film, rose more than 1% yesterday, and shares of theater giants AMC and IMAX also jumped (before flattening out later).
  • Dad-nip: Most “Top Gun” watchers were older than 35 (and male), a shift from recent flicks like “The Batman” that were hotter with younger audiences.

It’s a big win for the big screen… The theater industry has come a long way since its 40-year sales low in 2020, but it will never again look like it did pre-pandemic. The reason: Hollywood studios have branched out their strategies beyond the theater.

  • “Day-and-date” is dead: Studios like Warner Bros. and Comcast’s Universal have released movies simultaneously in theaters and to stream during the pandemic. But the strategy angered talent and flopped at the box office.
  • The future’s mixed: Universal plans to release mass-market films in theaters (think: “Jurassic World”) and more niche flicks straight to streaming (think: a LeBron biopic that appeals to younger viewers).

The theatrical bar has been raised… Hollywood may push sequels and sure-fire hits to big screens, since iconic characters (Batman) and huge stars (Tom Cruise) are more likely to deliver returns on investment than new, unproven stories. But Paramount, Disney, and Universal also compete for streaming subscribers, not just theatergoers. So they may test out riskier films on their streaming platforms first, since a surprise streaming hit could yield subscriptions, or even a big-screen sequel.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Foxy: Foxconn, which assembles most of the world’s iPhones, had to pause production at some key China factories in March. Now the Taiwanese company says Covid lockdowns haven’t hurt iProduction as much as feared.
  • Sold: US home prices surged 20% in March from a year earlier, as buyers rushed to lock in mortgages before rates ticked up. But with mortgage applications now tumbling, the housing boom could be cooling.
  • Eur-ouch: It’s not just the US: eurozone inflation hit another record in May, with prices up 8% year over year. Germany saw the highest #flation figures, as Russian sanctions cut off energy and wheat supply.
  • Icy: Unilever, which sells everything from Dove soap to Ben & Jerry’s, will add activist investor Nelson Peltz to its board. Shares popped 10% on hopes he could help revive growth, as he did with rival P&G.
  • Ink: Virgin Atlantic has lifted its requirement for cabin-crew members to hide their tattoos under their clothes. The shift comes as Virgin seeks to hire 300 more flight attendants to meet surging global travel demand.

Wednesday

  • Pride Month begins
  • Earnings expected from NetApp, Chewy, MongoDB, and Weibo

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Disney, and Comcast

ID: 2225370

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.