Wednesday Feb.03, 2021

📦 Bezos is out

_The king of ecommerce yields his throne_
_The king of ecommerce yields his throne_

Hey Snackers,

First, there was toilet paper and Clorox wipes. Then, there was baking yeast. The latest impossible-to-find product: Grape-Nuts cereal.

Stocks jumped yesterday ahead of earnings from Amazon and Google (spoiler: blowout numbers). Meme stocks like GameStop and AMC suffered major drops from last week's highs, but are still significantly up for the year. Speaking of...

Halt

The NYSE halts trading on some meme stocks — so we're breaking down trading halts

OG Wall Street... Yesterday, the New York Stock Exchange temporarily halted trading on GameStop (five times) and Koss (twice). Investors across brokerages couldn't buy or sell those stocks for around five minutes (each time). The 230-year-old NYSE is one of the two major stock exchanges in the US, along with the much younger Nasdaq.

  • Despite the halts, GameStop shares plunged 60% yesterday, and Koss dropped 43%. These companies have been in the limelight, but the NYSE actually halts trading on individual stocks nearly every day.
  • BTW: Exchange halts are different from trading restrictions by brokerages, which can also pause trading of certain securities. Viral stocks like GME are still being restricted by some brokerages.

Why so halty?... There are three major reasons that exchanges press "Ctrl + halt + F" on trading.

  • Stock swings: Sudden price swings can trigger halts for single stocks, or for the entire market. In March 2020, we had the first market-wide trading halt since 1997. "Circuit breakers" kick in when the S&P 500 plunges a certain percentage from the previous day. Depending on how bad it is, trading can be paused for 15 minutes or the entire day. GME and KOSS were halted yesterday because they quickly moved outside their "price bands."
  • News event: Exchanges also halt single-stock trading in anticipation of major announcements (like a scandal or merger). That prevents insiders from trading on privileged info before everyone else finds out.
  • Regulatory reasons: The SEC can make exchanges suspend trading of a stock if they suspect something fishy — think: Luckin Coffee accounting fraud.

Trading halts are there to protect investors... They act as a check on impulsive emotional reactions. Selloffs can result in panic, which can cause a cascade effect that could lead to a stock (or the entire market) crashing. Since new circuit breaker guidelines were implemented in 2013, the market hasn't plunged more than 13% in a day — a hopeful sign of halts' effectiveness. Halts also level the playing field between reactive investors and those who aren't up to date on the news. They can prevent insider trading and other illegal transactions at the expense of other investors.

CEO

Bezos steps down after Amazon's biggest quarter in history

Way too lit for a Tuesday... Amazon dropped two major bombshells in its 2020 fourth quarter earnings yesterday. First, the numbers: the Zon brought in a record-smashing $125.6B in sales, up from $87.4B in the same quarter of 2019. That's even more than Apple (aka: the most valuable company on Earth) did in sales last quarter. Profit more than doubled from a year earlier to $7.2B (smaller than Apple's — but still massive).

The bigger story... While Amazon's numbers are eye-popping, we're not shocked that Earth's biggest online retailer had a blowout holiday quarter... during a deadly pandemic. The real surprise: Jeff Bezos is stepping down as CEO.

  • C.E.Out: This year, AWS CEO Andy Jassy will be taking Bezos' place as Amazon's leader. Bezos will become exec chairman, focusing on “new products and early initiatives" — like his space baby Blue Origin and The Washington Post.
  • Part hero: In his 27 years leading Amazon, Bezos revolutionized the way we shop, made convenience a standard, and created jobs for 1M+ people.
  • Part villain: Thanks to him, purchasing with the click of a button is a lifestyle. But that has also hurt Main Street, killing brick-and-mortar mom & pop shops who can't compete.

"A yawn is the greatest compliment"... that an inventor can receive. That was Bezos' mic drop blurb post-announcement. From 1-Click ordering, to two-day shipping — 20 years ago, we couldn't have imagined these being a norm for us. Bezos’ point: if you do innovation right, then the extraordinary becomes the ordinary. Investors also yawned at Bezos leaving, with the stock barely budging after-hours. It's a vote of confidence that the empire he built is strong enough to stand without him front-and-center.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Addict: Alphabet's quarterly sales jumped a smashing 23% from a year earlier, driven by strong ad growth from YouTube and Google.
  • Vax: Pfizer speeds up its delivery schedule to provide 200M Covid vaccine doses by May instead of July (thank you).
  • Spacey: Rocket startup Astra is going public via a SPAC merger at a $2.1B valuation, after a successful space launch in December.
  • Gassy: Exxon lost a whopping $20B last quarter. But the stock jumped since investors think the WOAT is over.
  • Packing: UPS delivered a record $24.9B in quarterly sales thanks to higher shipping fees and extra-high holiday volumes.
  • Buddy: Ford and Google partner on a six-year deal that's not as random as it sounds. Google will provide in-car connectivity services.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Spotify, PayPal, and Sony

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Uber, and Google

ID: 1508667

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Latest Stories

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.