Monday Nov.28, 2022

🏈 Streamers’ sports-verse

A winning formula? (Jeff Spicer/Getty Images)
A winning formula? (Jeff Spicer/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Holiday travel can be stressful, especially when you’re trying to check your pet through TSA. Screening officers at JFK identified a live orange cat stuffed in a trolley. They weren’t feline it.

Stocks inched up for the short week after Fed officials suggested they might reduce the size of future rate hikes. Investors are eyeing Black Friday sales as the holiday shopping season kicks off.

Punt

The NFL and Amazon invest in sports-adjacent content to lure fans with “companion” shows

MVP of the season… “companion content.” Sports shows like Netflix’s “Drive to Survive” (about Formula 1 racers) have become hugely popular as younger sports fans seek new ways to engage. Now, more media giants are looking to capitalize on the companion-content craze:

  • Working overtime: This month Amazon struck a deal to stream games of high-school b-ball league Overtime Elite on Prime — and produce a companion docu-series.
  • Hail Maverick: Also this month, the NFL teamed up with Skydance Media (the studio behind “Top Gun: Maverick”) to make original sports content like docs and shows.

Getting in the game… is more important — and more expensive — than ever. As Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Disney, and Comcast-owned Peacock compete for streaming supremacy, they’ve struck pricey live-broadcasting deals with the NFL, MLB, and MLS to attract subscribers. The amount paid for US sports broadcasting rights surpassed $21B this year, a 26% jump from 2019.

  • Bidding bonanza: Netflix recently lost its bid for Formula 1 streaming rights to Disney, which lost a separate bid for Indian cricket rights.
  • Joining the little leagues: To save money, Netflix has reportedly considered streaming more niche sports like pro surfing and cycling.
  • More bang for less buck: For streaming titans, sports-adjacent content could bring the popularity of live sports without the big broadcasting price tag.

Adjacency = opportunity… because fans love to get up close and personal with their favorite stars. Social-media-adjacent businesses like OnlyFans, Patreon, and Cameo succeeded by giving superfollowers an exclusive peek (beyond the social page). Gaming-adjacent Twitch took off by giving fans interactive access to top gamers with livestreams. Streaming giants are betting on sports-adjacent content for the same reason: they know fans love getting an inside look.

Events

Coming up this week...

Like an Advent calendar… Instead of chocolate, the surprise is labor market #s. On Friday, the Labor Department will release unemployment data for November. In October, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% and stocks reacted positively (bad news = good news). While unemployment’s still near historic lows, we saw a fresh wave of layoffs this month, from Twitter to Amazon to Meta (Google might be next). But tech openings are still above prepandemic levels, and widespread layoffs across industries remain low. That could be changing: last week’s jobless claims hit their highest level since August.

Not-so-silver cloud lining… Shares of Salesforce, Snowflake, and Workday have lost nearly half their value this year as higher interest rates curb cloud spend. Salesforce's revenue rose 22% last quarter, but it cut its full-year forecast as the strong US dollar (and slowing demand) pressure profits. But as tech layoffs pile up, companies are still investing in cloud software to help them do more with less. Cloud spend is forecast to grow 21% next year, but analysts aren’t expecting breakthrough results when the cloud companies report this week.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Status-symbol cuffs are in… Despite global gloom, luxury jewelers like Cartier, Bulgari, and Tiffany are growing as branded bling booms. Last year the luxe jewelry market grew 7% from prepandemic totals. Bulgari’s planning to double production at its massive Italian jewelry factory, and Cartier is looking to open two new plants next year. Even fashion-focused Prada is launching its first jewelry collection. Branded pieces like Cartier Love bracelets are driving demand more than nameless gems.

FTX-tra messy… Lawyers for bankrupt crypto exchange FTX went to court last week to explain just how bad the company's books are. Think: a "substantial amount" of customers' crypto was stolen or is just straight up missing — that kind of bad. The Bahamian-based exchange owes $3B+ to its top 50 creditors (but hasn't publicly identified them). If they're institutional players (like crypto lenders), that bad debt could supercharge contagion. Meanwhile, customer funds remain frozen, and experts say sorting through FTX's mess could take years.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Bobs: The old Bob gets his old job: Disney icon Bob Iger shocked the entertainment industry by announcing his return as CEO (Bob Chapek is out). The surprise move proves brand makers are hard to replace.
  • Offside: World Cup host Qatar has kicked off controversy, from anti-LGBTQ+ moves to alcohol bans in stadiums. Despite vocal opposition, sponsors like Budweiser and Adidas aren’t willing to ditch one of the world’s top advertising opportunities.
  • Fitch: Abercrombie's back with a cologne-scented vengeance: Abercrombie and American Eagle shares soared last week after the tween-friendly retailers posted uplifting results as they overhauled inventories.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Taxing: Tax-prep services like H&R Block, TaxAct, and TaxSlayer reportedly sent users' info — in some cases names, incomes, and refund amounts — to Meta, which uses personal data to fuel its targeted ads biz.
  • Checked: The raises are coming: employers plan to increase salary budgets by more than 4% next year. But with inflation nearly at 8%, that bump might not be enough to boost purchasing power.
  • Spend: FTX and its then-CEO Sam Bankman-Fried spent millions on political donations and consultants. Recipients are now distancing themselves as SBF goes from "white knight" to pariah.

This Week

  • Monday: Cyber Monday. Earnings expected from Pinduoduo
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Intuit, Workday, CrowdStrike, and NetApp
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Salesforce, Snowflake, Hormel, Splunk, Okta, XPeng, Box, Victoria’s Secret, Petco, and La-Z-Boy
  • Thursday: Jobless claims. Earnings expected from TD Bank, Dollar General, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, UiPath, ChargePoint, and Asana
  • Friday: November unemployment data release. Earnings expected from Cracker Barrel

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of AB InBev, Amazon, Apple, Google, Disney, and Netflix

ID: 2611187

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