Kylie Cosmetics may be worth much less than the media thought — but is it fraud?

My lipgloss is droppin'... Kylie Jenner was a human unicorn (aka, a billionaire) — she may have lost her horn. In August 2018, Forbes celebrated Kylie with a glossy cover as she neared billionaire status thanks to the success of Kylie Cosmetics. An exclusive distribution deal with Ulta, which sells Kylie's $29 Lip Kits at 1K+ stores, seemed to seal it:

• In March 2019, Forbes confirmed that the then 21-year-old beauty mogul was "The Youngest Self Made Billionaire Ever" (insert sad Zuck).
• In January 2020, Kylie brought home $600M after selling 51% of Kylie Cosmetics to 116-year-old beauty giant Coty.
• The deal was valued at a snatched $1.2B — Kylie still owned 49% of the company, adding around $600M in value to her $600M cash (quick math: billionaire).

The truth is more Matte than Glossy... Forbes just published an article titled "Inside Kylie Jenner's Web of Lies" (big tonal shift here). Financial filings from publicly traded Coty reveal that Kylie’s business is much smaller (and less profitable) than the media was led to believe:

• What the Jenners told the media: Kylie Cosmetics did $307M in 2016 sales, $330M in 2017 sales, and $360M in 2018 sales.
• What Coty revealed: Kylie Cosmetics did $125M in 2018 sales and $177M in 2019 sales.
• If the 2016/2017 numbers are true (the 2018 ones definitely aren't), Coty paid a fortune for a "high growth brand" whose sales shrank from $330M to $125M in one year — instead, Forbes thinks the tax returns it was shown as proof of value were likely forged.