Wednesday Apr.01, 2020

😤 Amazon's Ultimate Stress Test

"_I repeat, this is not a drill"_
"_I repeat, this is not a drill"_

Hey Mealers,

In case you haven't heard, we're changing our name from Robinhood Snacks to Robinhood Meals — we'll begin covering long stories stuffed with so many negligible details, you'll feel like you just downed an entire Thanksgiving feast (plus a side of jargon) once you're done. Join us on this journey to a more calorie-dense course. Estimated read time: 6 hours, 23 minutes.

Just kidding, happy April Fools' Day. Now back to reality: the market wrapped up a brutal quarter yesterday — highlights include the fastest fall into a bear market ever, the S&P's most volatile month on record, and the Dow's worst 1st quarter in history. In other news...

Strike

Amazon's ultimate stress test causes cracks from both sides: workers and customers

This is not a drill... Amazon is going through an ultimate, real-life stress test right now. The delivery giant is coming in especially clutch during these stuck-at-home months (feels like an era). And it's feeling the stress from from both sides:

  • Overwhelming demand from customers is straining its supply chain and getting Prime subscribers riled up on delayed orders + unavailable products (try ordering Lysol wipes). Amazon's site traffic was up 32% from last year with almost 640M weekly visits. From Feb 20-Mar 23, Home/Kitchen sales alone surged 1,861%.
  • Worker unrest is exacerbating the stress, as workers demand better pay and health protections for dangerous conditions. As many as 1/2 of workers haven't shown up to jobs at some warehouses because of lacking masks/sanitizers. On Monday, warehouse workers on Staten Island staged a walk out (and Amazon fired the lead organizer). Yesterday, some of Amazon's Whole Foods employees staged a "sick out," demanding hazard pay.

Safety vs. demand... The more demand there is from customers, the more Amazon really needs its workers to be ready, able and willing to work.

  • But this overwhelming demand comes with stressful situations for workers, like reports of working overtime in close contact without adequate health protections.
  • "Essential" workplaces are all struggling with some form of this, as they juggle supplying essentials to the stuck-at-home masses with ensuring worker safety.

Amazon can get through this — little guys might not... Despite the strain, Amazon's main businesses are thriving right now — AWS cloud computing is booming on WFH demand and orders on Amazon.com are matching holiday season levels. So it can swing making changes to adapt:

Conference

Zoom is more popular than ever — but now it's got some major privacy issues

With great power, comes great responsibility... Video conferencing service Zoom has skyrocketed in popularity, riding the wave of the virus-induced mass WFH situation. But even the most popular video conferencing app in the school has issues (and more than a few bullies) — we'll get to those later:

  • Zoom added more users in the first 2 months of this year than in all of 2019, racking up 2.2M new monthly users by the end of February.
  • Now it's taken the Homecoming crown for the world's most popular iPhone and Android app.
  • Zoom stock is also making friends — its share price has more than doubled since late January while the rest of the market has dropped over 20%.

But Zoom has some (not so hidden) vulnerabilities... And Zoom's privacy fails are getting more heat now that it's really relevant:

  • Last year: Zoom had a security flaw that let hackers hijack your webcam.
  • Last week: Vice reported that Zoom was sending users' data to Facebook, without really telling them about it, even if they didn't have a Facebook account (sketch).
  • Now: "Zoombombing" incidents — professional Zoom meetings get crashed by, say, a naked person shouting profanities. They're surging.
  • So: NY's Attorney General just sent Zoom a letter saying her office was "concerned" about this seemingly lax security.

Zoom should've overreacted to privacy concerns... but it didn't. Privacy is Big Tech's #1 threat right now — Zoom is sort of newly initiated to the Big Tech Club, so it doesn't seem to be as sensitive to this. Privacy ambiguities don't fly for big services used by millions of people (Mark Zuckerberg can tell you all about this). Zoom didn't show investors a real effort to hunker down on privacy — its stock is down 8% over the week.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Wanted: Video-chat app Houseparty offers a $1M bounty to whoever finds the individual(s) who started a "smear campaign" that alleges the app was hacked.
  • Augment: Facebook strikes a deal with UK display-maker Plessey to co-produce new Augmented Reality tech (like AR glasses).
  • Build: President Trump says he wants to leverage low interest rates to pass a long-awaited infrastructure bill, suggesting up to $2T for the building of roads, bridges, etc.
  • Protect: Under Armour says it will manufacture and donate 500K facemasks for medical workers at the front lines of the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • Closed: Simon Property, the largest US mall owner, furloughs 30% of its employees — they'll have to take an unpaid leave of absence.
  • Drop: Xerox drops its bid for a hostile takeover of HP, according to #PFWTM (people familiar with the matter).

Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales