Wednesday May.20, 2020

🛒 Walmart's e-ssential quarter

_Essentials Club initiation_
_Essentials Club initiation_

Hey Snackers,

Ever wonder what to do when you're wearing a mask but also holding a plate of hot fries? Eating and mask-ing no longer have to be separate, thanks to this new remote-controlled mask that opens with your mouth. TBD whether it works for burgers, too.

Stocks dipped Tuesday, taking a breather from Monday's big Moderna-driven market rally. More on that below.

Vaccinate

Moderna gets closer to hacking COVID-19: a $27B biotech selling 0 products

Maybe she's born with it... Maybe it's $3B in funding. Moderna is a biotech company based out of Cambridge, MA (classic) that wants to hack coronavirus with its cutting edge tech. It raised $2.3B in funding, then shed its magical Unicorn cape to go public in 2018 (résumé item: Moderna had the largest biotech IPO — ever). On Monday, Moderna elevated markets with news that phase 1 trials for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate yielded positive results.

  • Over 100 coronavirus vaccines are currently in development around the globe — Moderna's is among the 8 front-runners that have started human trials (including Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer).
  • Moderna does things differently... Its bread and butter is mRNA, the messenger that sends protein-making instructions from our DNA to our cells (like a DM with a recipe for at-home Power Bars, except not at all).
  • Instead of using a weakened virus to make vaccines, Moderna is literally re-engineering mRNA to teach our cells how to make virus-destroying antibodies. If successful, this tech could be modified to target a wide range of viruses and diseases. But...

No mRNA vaccine has ever been approved for human use... Yet. But these gene-based vaccines can be developed more quickly than OG, established ones. Moderna's ambitious plan is to have its vaccine ready for emergency use as soon as this fall. The FDA gave it permission to start the 2nd phase of testing — Moderna's aiming to be in the 3rd/final round by July.

Moderna hasn't sold a single thing yet, but it's worth $27B... Moderna's got a lot in its pipeline, but no sell-able products to show for it (yet). But its pre-product cutting-edge tech is exactly what's getting investors excited — Moderna has almost quadrupled in value this year. Now it's making an opportune sale of new stock, hoping to raise an extra $1.3B — couldn't have timed it better.

Shop

Walmart's foot traffic falls, but sales soar: it's the "XL-Sized (e)Cart" earnings report

Padding required to make it through these aisles... Walmart, aka the largest US retailer, just unveiled a value-sized cartload of earnings. The numbers are for February, March, and April — half semi-normal, half full-blown pandemic. Walmart's corona-conomy success is far from shocking, but it tells an interesting story:

  • -5.6%: Walmart's foot traffic actually fell almost 6% compared to last year. Buuut...
  • +16.5%: Spending per transaction jumped, meaning Walmart carts were 16.5% fuller — shoppers visited less, but stocked up more.
  • +74%: Online sales soared, thanks to Walmart's meaty e-grocery operation— 3.2K locations were hot on curbside pickup, while 1.6K made delivery dreams come true.
  • +10%: How much total sales surged compared to last year. Despite the $900M the 'Mart dropped on COVID-related expenses (like hiring 235K extra workers), it still had a higher operating profit.

Like that 21+ ID card... Walmart's got a cool ID of its own — it's part of the "Essential Club," aka the group of businesses that are allowed to stay open during lockdown periods.

  • Like Walmart, Kohl's sells clothes, toys, and home essentials (like Walmart, because Walmart sells everything).
  • Unlike Walmart, Kohl's does not sell groceries.... That's why its sales for the same quarter tanked almost 44% — Kohl's 1.5K stores were shut for almost half the quarter. #Nonessential

The biggest 2020 stock driver: are you e-ssential?... There are two major components that influence a company's corona-conomy success, and Walmart checks both boxes:

  • Essentialness: When mandated shutdowns for non-essential businesses started, stores like Kohl's couldn't suddenly start slinging groceries to qualify to not have to close. And sales that would have happened at Kohl's probably happened at Walmart instead (again, because Kohl's was closed).
  • E-Readiness: Companies like Walmart, Amazon, and Target already had robust ecommerce platforms built out pre-corona (their stocks are trading near all time-highs). Companies that aren't as digitally-savvy suffered — Kohl's stock is trading at 1998 levels.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Faceshop: Facebook launches "Shops," a way for businesses to set up free storefronts on FB and Insta — the ecommerce push is real.
  • Switcheroo: TikTok snags Disney's Head of Streaming, Kevin Mayer, to be its new CEO — Mayer was a top contender for the CEO job at Disney (spoiler: didn't get it).
  • Canceled: Nasdaq moves to delist Luckin Coffee from trading, over a month after news that it faked its 2019 sales numbers (#FakeBrews).
  • Jackpot: Casinos in Louisiana and Mississippi reopen after a two-month closure — the lines have already formed.
  • Fly: Airlines have seen a small uptick in bookings over the past few weeks — Southwest says new bookings are finally outpacing cancellations.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Walmart and Luckin Coffee

ID: 1192392

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.