Wednesday Jan.25, 2023

💊 Amazon Prime pills

Adding pharmacy to cart (Igor Golovniov/Getty Images)
Adding pharmacy to cart (Igor Golovniov/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Breakfast with a side of fresh cash? An Indiana McDonald’s accidentally gave a customer a bag filled with $5K instead of his McMuffin. The man returned the money, went viral on TikTok, and said he was rewarded with a month of free McD’s. Someone call John Quiñones.

Stocks closed mixed yesterday as investors digested earnings from corporates like Johnson & Johnson and 3M. Next up: all eyes are on tomorrow's fourth-quarter GDP data.

RX

Amazon unveils a $5/month unlimited meds subscription as retailers race into pill delivery

A pack of migraine meds… with your monthly TP delivery. Amazon’s doubling down on its pharmacy biz with a new prescription-drug subscription. Prime members can now buy unlimited meds (and get ’em delivered to their doorstep) for a flat fee of $5/month — no insurance necessary. The subscription (dubbed “RXPass”) offers 80 medications for everything from high blood pressure to anxiety. Amazon’s targeting people who are juggling numerous prescriptions: 150M+ Americans take one or more of the drugs included in the RXPass.

  • Look back: Amazon bought online pharmacy PillPack for $750M in 2018 and splurged nearly $4B on membership-based health-clinic chain One Medical last year.

  • Pill pack: So far only 14% of prescription customers know about Amazon’s PillPack online pharmacy, but over a third say they plan to switch pharmacies in the next year.

Getting crowded… Nearly half of US adults take two or more meds daily, and a quarter say it’s difficult to afford the treatment they need. Now retailers are scrambling to get more prescription business. In 2021 Walmart added prescription discounts to its Walmart+ membership program. Mark Cuban’s discounted Cost Plus e-pharmacy attracted 1.5M customers just a year after launching. Meanwhile, CVS and Walgreens have ramped up their prescription offerings with features like mobile ordering and delivery. Amazon’s big differentiator: offering many drugs at one flat rate.

Old roads can open new paths… Amazon’s been moving into healthcare for years, but has yet to make a big mark in the $500B pharmacy retail space. Now it’s using its “old road” strengths (think: 168M Prime subscribers and a massive delivery network) to get ahead. Its bid is promising: nearly two-thirds of brick-and-mortar pharmacy customers have a Prime account.

Word

Microsoft reports slowing growth and a rare profit drop, but is still investing billions

Soft landing… Microsoft kicked off Big Tech earnings yesterday on an upbeat note. Shares of the software titan spiked 4% after it reported (slightly) better-than-expected earnings, courtesy of solid cloud growth. Microsoft’s cloud-computing unit — aka: the second-largest cloud biz after Amazon’s AWS — grew revenue by 31% from last year, a slowdown from previous quarters. Investors were uplifted by the small earnings beat, but Microsoft’s reality is not so suite:

  • Far from Excel-ent: Total sales grew at the slowest pace since 2016, and profit dropped for the first time in eight years (from $18.7B last year, to $16.4B).

  • Iffy Outlook: Last week Microsoft said it was slashing 10K workers to prepare for a recession as the remote-work boom wanes.

New year, new me… Microsoft is the first of the Big Tech Five (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) to report. In 2021, they demolished earnings with jaw-dropping records. In May of that year, Microsoft posted its strongest revenue growth since 2018, while Apple and Amazon delivered quarterly records. This year, it’s a different story:

  • The remaining four of the Big Tech Five are also expected to release lower quarterly earnings as demand slows, recession fears grow, and layoffs abound.

When the going gets tough, get more going… Even as cloud and PC demand slows, Microsoft’s not backing down from big spending: it just announced a multiyear, multibillion-dollar investment in ChatGPT maker OpenAIand is still aggressively trying to complete its $69B acquisition of gaming company Activision Blizzard. By doubling down on generative-AI tools and gaming, Microsoft’s hoping to energize growth with new tech.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Walmore: Walmart, aka America’s largest employer, said it's raising its minimum wage for store staff to $14/hour. The goal: attract and retain workers in a still competitive job market.

  • Googopoly: The Justice Department sued Google, saying it has a monopoly over online advertising tech. It's the fifth govt antitrust suit against the search giant since 2020, and aims to make Google sell off its ad tech.

  • 3Miss: 3M announced it's laying off 2.5K employees as demand for disposable face masks sags. The Minnesota biz manufactures everything from Post-its to Scotch tape to "forever chemicals."

  • Vaxing: Johnson & Johnson said its quarterly earnings dropped 25% as global demand for its Covid vax sank 57%. Still, sales of its over-the-counter meds like Tylenol got a boost during flu season.

  • Whynance: Crypto exchange Binance said it was a "mistake" to keep customers' funds and collateral for its tokens in the same digital wallet. Meanwhile, regulators said exchanges shouldn't mix their crypto with customers'.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Tesla, Abbott Labs, AT&T, Boeing, NextEra Energy, Kimberly Clark, Levi, and IBM

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Apple, CVS, Google, Microsoft, Walmart and Tesla

ID: 2699644

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Latest Stories

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spin. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

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Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.