Wednesday Mar.11, 2020

🌳 Grove goes "tree-positive"

_Stitch Fixers gone wrong_
_Stitch Fixers gone wrong_

Hey Snackers,

Kirkland peanut butter and 36-packs of toilet paper aren't the only hot commodities at Costco: one value-savvy shopper just dropped over $600K on a diamond engagement ring.

The Dow rebounded up 1.1K points Tuesday after Monday's dramatic drop — hints of possible economic stimulus sent tech, travel, and financial stocks higher.

Strut

Stitch Fix falls 25% because we may have hit peak Fix

In need of financial stitching... Stitch Fix, the online personal styling service, just unveiled its earnings for the last quarter — far from glamorous. It's a fashion company trying to look like a tech company. You fill out a style quiz (modern or boho? Slim fit or athletic?) and Stitch Fix sends you monthly subscription boxes of ambitious clothes to push your looks envelope.

  • The population of Fixers jumped 17% over the year to reach 3.5M.
  • And it's a scaling up tech company that's actually profitable ($11M last quarter).

But its latest service reveals a problem... "Direct Buy." Instead of using Stitch Fix's proprietary, algorithm-enabled, human-curated style decision tool to hook you on a monthly subscription, Stitch Fix offers the option to just buy clothes from its online store instead. Direct. Just like other ecommerce sites. That undermines Stitch Fix's core service and could be a sign of an underlying demand problem.

It's struggling to move past early adopters... And that's why the stock is down 67% from its peak. Early adopters drive initial sales and growth for innovative new companies — then it's time to go mainstream. The true test of success is expanding beyond its early demographic. But 2 stats show that's not exactly happening for Stitch Fix:

  • To find new customers, Stitch Fix had to up its spending on ads — by 49% last quarter.
  • But customers spent less per "Fix" on average.
Sustain

Grove Collaborative is going plastic-free by 2025 — it's a "tree-positive" story

I want to break tree... The commercial use of tree, that is. Grove Collaborative is a consumer packaged goods unicorn offering sustainable products and a Millennially-pleasing website font. Grove elevates un-sexy basics — like toilet paper, trash bags, and fabric softener — by positioning itself as a positive force for the environment:

  • 'Tree-Free': How Grove describes its Seedling paper products (like tree-free TP) — they're made of just one ingredient: 100% Sustainable Bamboo
  • 'Tree-Positive': Grove offers the "first 'tree-positive' paper in the World" (don't bother Googling the term — we tried). A portion of every Seedling purchase goes toward tree-planting.

Grove just announced it's going Plastic Free by 2025... It's already plastic-neutral, which is the same idea as carbon-neutral — it pays to intercept plastic before it reaches oceans/landfills. It also offsets carbon emissions from its free shipping. To get plastic-free, Grove will gradually use more glass and aluminum. But here's what really fascinated us:

  • Bamboo: Grove is obsessed with it — bamboo paper, straws, cutting boards — even the $25 paper-towel holder has a bamboo handle (to hold your bamboo paper towels).
  • Bamboo is the fastest growing plant in the world (note: not a tree). While trees take around 20 years to grow back after harvesting, bamboo takes only 3 months – Grove also assures us) that no baby panda will be left hungry in the making of its paper.

Being "sustainable" is no longer enough for a brand... Supermarkets and drugstores already boast eco-friendly options like Seventh Generation or Method. Grove's brand stands for approachable sustainability — but its new aggressive commitment to tree-free-ness is what sets it apart. We're in an era of sustainable products right now (think plant-based meat) — Grove's focused on the next era: sustainable packaging. They're even working on shampoo concentrate to reduce plastic bottles.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Inmate: The state of New York engages prisoners to produce hand sanitizer as the shortage continues — Governor Cuomo thinks it smells like a "floral bouquet"
  • Zero: Trump pitches a 0% payroll tax rate for the rest of 2020 on coronavirus worries (less taxes paid usually means more spending)
  • Descend: United Airlines' US bookings plunge 70% as travelers avoid traveling
  • Sugar: Hostess launches Twinkie and Ding Dong-flavored iced lattes — TBD on when it'll launch ice-latte flavored Twinkies
  • Stay: Zumper raises $60M to double down on its apartment rentals platform
  • Ghosted: Some European airlines are flying near-empty 'ghost flights' — an EU law requires them to fly 80% of slotted trips to remain at major hubs

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from LG

ID: 1115749

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Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.