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Airlines help explain the market rally — and their stocks are soaring to post-COVID altitudes

Snacks / Thursday, June 04, 2020
"_You're in my middle seat_"
"_You're in my middle seat_"

Warren Buffett just spat out his Coke... Exactly a month ago, the investment legend sold Berkshire Hathaway's entire airline stake (at a $3.5B loss). Air travel was down 95% compared to 2019, and even long-term obsessed Warren gave airlines a vote of no confidence. But airline stocks have rebounded big since then:

  • Since May 5th, American Airlines stock is up 76%, Delta is up 59%, Southwest is up 45%, and United is up 62% — those are America's 4 largest airlines (and also the ones Berkshire sold).
  • As the economy slowly reopens, airline stocks (along with other corona-conomy losers) have been some of the biggest gainers.
  • The hype for homebound stocks like Zoom and Slack has chilled — shares of both companies actually fell after they reported high-growth earnings (when success becomes boring).

But it all flies back to the data... Investors are focused on a fresh uptick in air travel, a trend that airlines believe will continue as summer approaches.

  • On April 16th, TSA checkpoint data revealed that passenger volume was just 3.6% of last year's. On June 3 (aka 2 days ago), that number rose to 13.6%.
  • Airlines are adding more flights as demand picks up: American plans to fly 55% of its domestic schedule in July, up from 20% in May.

Stocks rally because investors focus on the future... And the latest airline data suggests a slow (but steady) return to normalcy. COVID-19 still has no tangible solution. Trade tensions with China are bubbling. Civil unrest is breaking out nationwide. But the Nasdaq 100 just hit a record high and the S&P 500 is down only 8% from its February peak — all because investors are focused on a more blue-skied financial future.

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