Tuesday Feb.11, 2020

🤔Groundhog Day for Slack & IBM

_IBM becomes Slack's biggest customer (again)_
_IBM becomes Slack's biggest customer (again)_

Hey Snackers,

Happy Tuesday — especially to this man who just came back to solid ground after 78 days in a wine barrel on a pole after breaking his own Guinness World Record for "living in a barrel at the top of a pole."

US stocks climbed to start the week — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs.

Work

Slack soars on news that IBM is its biggest customer — falls on exact same news

When they congratulate you for something that happened years ago... Thanks, I guess? Slack stock jumped 18% Monday after Business Insider reported that it snagged IBM as its biggest client. Huge win, since IBM has 350k employees.

Then, trading of Slack stock was strangely halted... Then, this announcement from Slack cleared up the situation: "IBM has been Slack's largest customer for several years..." Slack shares fell 8% after hours. Here's how Slack's relationship with IBM has blossomed:

  • 2014: Some IBM teams start using Slack, testing the GIPHY and emoji-filled waters of the messaging platform (which launched in 2013).
  • 2016: Slack partners with IBM's AI tool Watson to improve that friendly Slackbot (and allow Slack developers to make other AI bots).
  • 2019: IBM has expanded its usage of Slack over time, and (according to Business Insider) decides to go "all in."
  • 2020: Slack's relationship with IBM goes public/official. Kind of old news, but the BI report lifts Slack shares. Moral of story: all of IBM's employees use Slack now.
  • Either way, IBM's usage of Slack validates the app's potential with massive corporations, instead of just start-up-y startups.

A mutually beneficial relationship... Being chosen by one of the world's largest corporations is a big win for Slack, and its partnership with IBM has prepared it over the years to tailor to larger customers. IBM, on the other hand, is a 108-year-old. When developers at Slack-using startups see IBM's chatbot integrations, they might be more inclined to champion the tech IBM's trying to sell them.

Close

Brandless shuts down after failing to build a brand without a brand

Building your brand... is not just a LinkedIn gimmick. SoftBank-backed Brandless, the ecommerce company that sold frill-less, sustainable grocery/homegoods products for $3 each, is shutting down. In 2017, Brandless launched with direct-to-consumer single versions of almost everything — minimalist basics from organic cashew butter to cruelty-free moisturizer, with no brand on the label. Then:

  • July 2018: SoftBank's Vision Fund (which also financed Uber, WeWork, and Wag) invests $240M, valuing Brandless at around $500M.
  • January 2019: Brandless begins raising its prices beyond $3, introducing higher-priced products like baby and pet food.
  • October 2019: Tries to expand its products into brick-and-mortar retail stores.
  • February 2020: Goes out of business.

End "the brand tax"... That was Brandless' thesis: Make products cheaper for consumers by saving on marketing costs. Because if a product's not splurging millions on branding, you can give that $$$ back to customers. But Brandless didn't have enough word-of-mouth and customer loyalty to survive in the highly competitive direct-to-consumer market.

Companies are built on brand... Brand is so important that it often overpowers actual quality, price, and reason. Buying an $80 candle doesn't really make sense — but it somehow clicks if it's from Anthropologie or Goop. Especially for direct-to-consumer companies, where you're not seeing the product on a store shelf, branding is crucial (from Allbirds shoes to Warby Parker shades).

Grub

Popeye's had an awesome year, and its brother Burger King is jealous

Praising the favorite child... Restaurant Brands International is a Canadian holding company, and also the parent of Burger King, Popeyes, and Tim Hortons. But RBI was especially proud of Popeyes, which outshined its siblings this year with a surge in sales.

  • Burger King opened the most new locations in 20 years, but sales were up barely 3%.
  • Tim Hortons' performance "did not reflect the incredible power of our brand," according to RBI — sales were down 4% (Sorry, mom).
  • Popeyes sales jumped 34% driven by its viral fried chicken sandwich, which was sold out in 2 weeks and caused a chicken shortage that took months to re-supply. The proud parent called Popeyes' poultry dish "iconic" and a "game changer in every way." Thanks, mom.

RBI is latching onto trend foods... Popeyes Chicken Sandwich, like the Baby Yoda of food, was a huge win for RBI. Last quarter, the Impossible Whopper drove Burger King US sales up 5%. But trend foods aren't always successful — Tim Horton's Beyond Breakfast sandwich was killed off after less than a year.

Profit-wise, RBI could do more... It's underperforming compared to Yum Brands, the owner of KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell. Yum is the Lyft to RBI's Uber — both own 3 huge fast-food chains. And they both had about $5.5B in sales last year — but Yum made almost 2X the profit. RBI needs to boost sales and/or lower costs to super size its profits to Yum's levels.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Not Extra: Chipotle offers free guacamole to reward members who reach 'Guac Mode'
  • Print: Xerox sweetens its offer to buy HP to $34B, hoping to persuade shareholders
  • Oh: Facebook might have to pay the IRS over $9B in taxes because of its Irish subsidiary
  • Vicky: L Brands is getting close to selling Victoria's Secret to a PE firm — the deal could be announced next week, according to PFWTM (people familiar with the matter)
  • Rough: Schick's owner, Edgewell Personal Care, gives up on buying Harry's after the FTC sued to block the $1.4B acquisition last week (Harry's is disappointed)

Sign up for Robinhood, our commission-free investing app, and get a free stock. Already on Robinhood? You'll still get a free stock for getting a friend to sign up (they'll get one too).

Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Slack

ID: 1086552

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Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

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Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
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The FTC vs. Big Handbag

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Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.