Hey Snackers,
Started from recession now we here.
- March 9th, 2009: The S&P 500 closes at 676 points — the lowest level of the Great Recession.
- Today: The S&P 500 is above 3,200 points — The market has nearly quintupled since that financial crisis.
Instead of looking back, your Snacks team snagged some champagne early and brainstormed our boldest wishful business predictions for 2020 based on 2019's trends (+ our imaginations).
#1
We wish Apple would acquire Tesla (if Tesla stumbles), bringing us the iCar
Tesla's New Year's Resolution... is fit for a black belt, Jedi Master, and Head Boy/Girl at Hogwarts. Elon Musk's electric car company always sets insane goals, but 2020 looks particularly crazy for Tesla:
- Scale production at the new Shanghai Gigafactory.
- Deliver the first Model Y crossover SUVs (it's been on pre-order since March).
- Succeed in China (Earth's biggest electric car market), despite America's ongoing trade war.
- Build a 4th Gigafactory near Berlin.
Tesla stock is at an all-time high... thanks to a surprise profit last quarter (despite broken window-gate). But Tesla is polarizing, and the stock could quickly turn south if Tesla's win streak goes on the fritz. If shares fall 50% (that's happened before), then Tesla would be worth $39B. That's where Apple comes in. Hear us out:
- Apple has $206B in cash as of its last quarter.
- Creation of an Apple car was rumored for decades, but hasn't happened.
- With iPhone sales declining, there's a perfect parking spot for the iCar on Apple's income statement.
- Plus, the 2 companies' HQs are just 9 miles apart (ETA to conference room is 9 minutes).
What about Elon?... If Tesla got acquired by Apple, Elon Musk would probably need to let Apple's CEO take the wheel. But Elon's leadership has been critical — he published the Secret Master Plan in 2006 and Part Deux in 2016. Apple would bring financial stability to Tesla, but possibly downshift Elon's revved up ambitions.
#2
We wish Chipotle would eliminate restaurants and go pick-up/delivery only in 2020
You'll never have to hear 'Guac is extra' again... Chipotle should become the 1st major US restaurant chain to eliminate tables and make every store offer pre-order pickup/delivery only. We could stuff a burrito and rip the tinfoil with reasons why:
- Digital saved Chipotle: Its online sales for pickup and delivery nearly doubled last quarter.
- Space costs $$$: Physical Chipotle restaurants are mostly empty during the mornings and 2pm-5pm when you're not barbacoa-hangry.
- New guy: The new CEO came from Taco Bell with a taste for fresh ideas (carne asada was all him). We're betting things can get wilder.
Convenience is taking over retail... In department stores, Target's stock is at a record high largely thanks to curbside pickup. Walmart is committed to "delivery unlimited" subscriptions at 1,400 locations (and grocery curbisde pickup, too). Now we're noticing retail convenience spill onto food:
- Over half of your 2020 restaurant spending is projected to be outside the restaurant (aka delivery/pickup).
- Last year's $10.2B consumer splurge on 3rd party delivery apps led to ghost kitchens: delivery-only restaurants — customers can't even see the place.
- Starbucks is testing its 1st ever pickup-only store.
Eliminating tables will be Chipotle’s differentiator... It's facing fresh fast-casual competition from Sweetgreen, Cava, and Shake Shack. Plus, fast food is upgrading (McD's is dropping $6B to renovate its stores). Going table-free isn't just a profit move or PR stunt — it's how Chipotle can stand out in a saturated world of quick quality food options.
#3
We wish Amazon would unveil "naked" shipping to crush cardboard waste
It's getting hot in here... So take off all your packaging. Billions of packages shipped each year means billions of tree-made cardboard boxes. Since Amazon launched "The Climate Pledge," a goal to meet the Paris Climate Agreement 10 years early, we wish it would offer naked shipping.
Think outside the box... To get net zero carbon by 2040, Amazon needs to spend money. It's ordered 100K electric delivery vans and is investing $100M in planting trees. Amazon already offers Prime shipping, "Now" 2-hour shipping, and "No-rush" shipping. Time to add "naked" shipping to the mix:
- No box within a box: Reduce the number of boxes by letting certain packages get shipped in their native packaging (just slap on a label).
- Incentivize it: Give customers $1 off to "go naked." That's because it saves Amazon money (the boxes) and helps achieve its Climate Pledge.
- Set an example: Naked isn't always appropriate — A Rolex needs the anonymity of a brown box. But with customers craving "naked-eligible" $1-off items, producers may make their native packaging naked-friendly, (like Tide already has).
Carbon neutrality isn't profit neutrality... Most economists agree that greenhouse gases pollute, but most governments don't tax/limit them like they do other pollutants. That means Amazon is voluntarily taking care of Mother Earth with its Climate Pledge. Here's how it could affect profits:
- Negatively: Amazon already pays 85 workers to optimize packaging. Now it's got to pay for the $1 naked incentive and for a potential increase in stolen/damaged items.
- Positively: Sustainability commitments can create brand love (we see you, Patagonia). Preventing trees from getting sawed down to box toilet paper can build customer loyalty.
What else we’re Snackin’
- Work: Most ridiculous job titles of 2019
- Tech'd Up: 13 biggest tech failures of the decade
- Charge It: Consumers overspend by $7,400 a year (online shopping and subscriptions are big culprits)
- Oops: Stocks soared this year, but half of millennials missed out on gains
- Resolutions: Ignore the "Hustle Pushers" and find professional and personal fulfillment
This Week
- Monday: Earnings from NIO
- Tuesday: Earnings from Pivotal Software
- Wednesday: Markets closed for New Years Day
- Thursday: Earnings from Pier 1 Imports
- Friday: Earnings from Lamb Weston Holdings
Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon and Tesla
ID: 1045550
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