Wednesday Sep.09, 2020

🧘‍♀️ Lululemon's big digital flex

"_So glad we drunk-ordered Lululemon last night_"
"_So glad we drunk-ordered Lululemon last night_"

Hey Snackers,

The Mysterious Seed Saga continues: Amazon just banned the sale of foreign seeds in the US after thousands of people received random seed packages from China. And you thought your dumbbells had finally arrived.

The Nasdaq dropped 4% as investors sold off Big Tech stocks, dragging down the market. Tesla shares plunged 20% for its worst single-day loss ever.

Stretch

Lululemon becomes an ecommerce company as online sales take over

Release the breath... Despite all evidence to the contrary, Lululemon doesn't need Soul Cycle to sell workout clothes. Spin studios and Equinoxes were closed last quarter (Lulu's worst nightmare). But the legging legend's sales surprisingly grew 2%, even though in-store sales fell. Instead of crying over germ-avoidant shoppers, Lulu made Lululemonade with ecommerce:

  • Online sales soared 157% as you ordered $90 leggings and yoga tanks for that at-home pilates workout (electric blue looks great over Zoom).
  • 61% of Lulu's total sales came from online, compared to just 25% during the same quarter last year. Lulu is officially a mostly-ecommerce company.

Luck happens when preparation meets opportunity... Before the pandemic, Lulu had already put in the work to flex its ecommerce muscle.

  • Preparation: Online sales already made up 33% of Lulu's total sales before lockdowns, making it well-positioned for a shift to full ecommerce.
  • Luck: The stay-at-home life mainly consists of chilling, working, and exercising — all things that can be done in Lulu's athleisure wear.

Lulu doesn't need 400+ stores anymore... It just proved it can grow as a direct-to-consumer company. Lulu's in-store sales plunged 51% last quarter, even as stores reopened. But online sales were strong enough to overpower those losses and deliver overall sales growth. Although Lulu is committed to continue opening new physical stores, it doesn't need them to make it into your closet. Its recent acquisition of at-home fitness company Mirror could hit closer to home (literally).

Electrify

Nikola stock soars 40% after GM makes a massive investment in its e-trucks

Didn't see this hookup coming... 111-year-old GM is investing big in e-truck maker Nikola. Nikola is a six-year-old hydrogen-fueled electric truck startup that plans to sell electric trucks (products delivered so far = 0). Since its IPO in June, the biggest news to come out of Nikola was that it started taking preorders for its 2022 Badger electric pickup. The biggest news now:

  • GM is dropping $2B for an 11% stake in Nikola. The investment isn't only financial — GM will actually be producing Nikola's trucks.
  • Nikola stock soared 40%. GM stock popped 8%. Nikola is now worth nearly half as much as GM, despite never having delivered a profit (or a vehicle).

Who got the short end of the gear stick?... At first, it seems like GM did. Not only is Nikola getting a $2B investment — it's also getting one of the world's most seasoned carmakers to crank out vehicles for it. Since Nikola went public, investors have been wondering whether it can actually deliver on the hype. With GM riding shotgun, they're feeling relieved. What does GM get?

  • A "hot" high-potential growth investment for its old low-growth company. Excitement for GM ended at the Chevy Corvette.
  • A sexy way to deploy its own e-battery and fuel cell systems. GM will be the exclusive fuel cell supplier for Nikola’s upcoming semi trucks.

The fastest way to scale is letting someone else do it for you... Designing a cool car is hard — manufacturing it at scale is way harder. GM brings the manufacturing expertise that young Nikola lacks. Tesla scaled on its own, but took 16 years to produce a respectable 100K cars/quarter and 17 years to deliver a full-year profit. Instead of building its own assembly lines and battery factories, Nikola can use GM's to scale faster and more cheaply.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Womp: Slack's sales grew 50% last quarter, but the stock plunged 20% because that growth rate was the same as the previous 2 quarters.
  • Popcorn: Spy thriller "Tenet" brought in $20M during US movie theaters' biggest opening weekend since the pandemic started.
  • WFO: Netflix CEO Reed Hastings calls WFH "a pure negative," while Google scraps plans for a 2K-person office in Dublin.
  • Vax: 9 drugmakers pledge to "uphold the integrity of the scientific process" in COVID vaccine development (throwing #shade at Russia).
  • Game: After many leaks, Microsoft begrudgingly confirmed it's launching its smallest Xbox ever for $299.
  • Locate: Apple is reportedly mass producing AirTags, little Bluetooth buttons you can stick on your stuff to locate it (yep, just like Tile).

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Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Lululemon, Alibaba, and Apple

ID: 1325725

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.