Thursday May.21, 2020

🛍 Facebook's big shopping bet

_It's like DIY Christmas_
_It's like DIY Christmas_

Hey Snackers,

Job posting for the extreme introvert (in case regular social distancing isn't enough): NASA is seeking "social isolation experts" to spend 8 months alone in a Russian lab. Since Russian labs are ideal getaway destinations, the applications are probably flooding in quick. Nyet.

Markets ticked up Wednesday — the S&P 500 snagged its highest close in over two months as all 50 states have now eased stay-at-home orders.

Shop

Facebook expands social media dominance with ecommerce: meet "Shops"

Hold the (i)Phone... This could be "Bezos is worried"-worthy. Facebook unveiled a new product letting businesses set up full-on digital storefronts across FB/Instagram. It's called Facebook "Shops" — unexciting name, but spicier than Shopify's newly launched "Shop" app (the "s" is key). Shopify isn't (openly) mad though — it's actually partnering with FB, providing its ecommerce tech/platform to help get Shops up and running:

  • In 2016, FB had 60M business pages and 4M businesses actively advertising — just imagine how many it has today (because we don't know). Take all those FB business pages racking up likes, and add all the Instagram brand pages dropping pastels in your feed.
  • Shops turns these business pages into digital storefronts — FB has already dabbled in ecommerce (with Marketplace and Checkout), but Shops is the whole shebang.

Let's see the receipts... Facebook couldn't have launched this at a better time. With businesses suffering from shutdowns (especially small ones), many who shrugged off the ecommerce life are now moving online out of necessity.

  • Businesses get: A free and easy way to turn their social media pages into storefronts.
  • Facebook gets: A "small fee" per purchase — a key revenue differentiator as its profit puppy ads sales decline during this recession.
  • It's very much in Facebook's interest to make sure businesses don't go under, so that these businesses have the money/reason to keep advertising on Facebook/Instagram.

Social media + ecommerce is a powerful duo... And Facebook is already a Master of One. Many of our purchasing decisions are influenced by the things we see on social, partly because it's where we spend so much of our time. And while Amazon is the master of ecommerce, it doesn't have 3B users scrolling through its feeds for #inspo.

Fix

Lowe's rides on "House Hype" to soaring quarterly sales: the DIY renaissance

The "House Hype" is real... Not to be confused with Tik Tok-famous Hype House, where teens with millions of followers dance in bathrooms. The "House Hype" refers to the period of time during which we realized we'd be spending all our waking and non-waking hours in one place: the house. One beneficiary of that period was Lowe's — the big home improvement retailer is doing the Renegade dance to some hype-y numbers:

  • Sales surged 11+% for the quarter as locked down people finally got around to fixing that door handle that's been loose for 12 years. "BRB honey, emergency Lowe's run for more decorative pillows" — the consequences of boredom (see: frog bread).
  • Online sales jumped 80%, as Lowe's pivoted to ecommerce — it rolled out curbside pickup to accommodate online demand, and its website saw triple-digit traffic growth in April.
  • Profit popped 28% compared to last year, as people realized the best time to DIY-home improve is when you're home 24/7.

But... Lowe's earnings probably would have looked very different (read: bad) if it wasn't blessed with an "Essentials Club" membership. Some retailers got it (cough, Walmart), some didn't (cough, Kohl's).

The House Hype might be over... Lowe's CEO warned that such high sales growth likely isn't sustainable, and that sales could be moderate going forward (Lowe's stock dropped 4% — there's only so many times you can repaint a kitchen). That's the challenging part of success: it makes it harder to impress investors in the next quarter. Plus, if the housing market suffers on the currently staggering unemployment rate, Lowe's may too.

Chat

Clubhouse hits a $100M valuation — and it only has 1,500 users

Ain't no crying in the club(house)... There's definitely no crying over at Clubhouse app, the buzzy new social media company that just hit a $100M valuation after raising $12M in funding. The audio app — which is still in beta — is currently only available to a select group of just 1.5K users (#exclusive). It's so stealthy that it doesn't even have a website yet.

  • It seems kind of like Houseparty, in the sense that you can spontaneously join a "room" of people for a live chat — but Clubhouse is all about that audio life.
  • As an audio-only social network, Clubhouse lets you tune into live conversations going on in "rooms" — for example, a discussion on how the pandemic is affecting prison inmates (led by rapper MC Hammer and venture capitalist Marc Andreesen).

The first rule of Clubhouse... Tell every reporter and celebrity about Clubhouse. The exclusivity, "novelty," and celebrity buzz behind Clubhouse likely helped it snag its latest funding round. TBD whether the app will survive past the hype.

  • While "audio social network" sounds like a fancy name for a phone call, Clubhouse has the potential to be a place where people tune into live conferences about topics that interest them (minus the hassle of a Zoom setup). But...
  • There's no lack of fad social apps that raised a ton of money on early hype, only to later drift into nothingness (even now-shutdown YikYak managed to raise $70M).

Exclusivity as a product... If Clubhouse isn't able to scale beyond its "exclusive" user base, maybe it can charge member fees. This membership-based model that leverages exclusivity worked on some "selective" social/dating apps (like Raya). It's the opposite of the free, "as many users as possible" ad-reliant strategy of social giants like Facebook and Twitter. But if there's no demand for the product, neither strategy will work.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Stream: Apple pays Sony $70M for streaming rights to a new Tom Hanks movie — it was scheduled to go to theaters in June, but will now go straight to Apple TV+.
  • Stars: Celebrity-taught classes startup Masterclass raises $100M to hit an $800M+ valuation.
  • Twitchy: Amazon releases its first original video game, "Amazon Crucible" — the 'Zon hopes the free big budget game will level up its play status (it has Fortnite-envy).
  • Chipper: The US gov moves to cut off chip supplies from Chinese tech giant Huawei, imposing restrictions on who can sell it chips made with American tech.
  • Track: Alabama, North Dakota and South Carolina will use Apple and Google’s COVID-19 tracking tech in statewide apps.

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Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Shopify, Sony, and Amazon

ID: 1193755

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Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

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Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped