Friday Nov.01, 2019

Apple's Wearables = 1 Starbucks

"_Why are you no longer subscribed to my streaming network?_"
"_Why are you no longer subscribed to my streaming network?_"

Hey Snackers,

Candy hangovers are real too. We're survivors.

Before daylight savings messes with your mornings (FYI, this Sunday), investors are focused on the big October Jobs Report that arrives today — it could've been affected by last month's GM strike.

Remake

Wearables are the surprise MVP of Apple's latest earnings report

iPhone is too good... You're not replacing/upgrading your pocket's best friend often enough, and that's a problem for Apple. But now it's found 2 saviors. 1 was expected, 1 is a surprise:

  • Services (sales up 18% last quarter): You knew about this one — Apple's made $46B over the past year in sales of iCloud, Apple Music, etc. And (starting today) Apple TV+.
  • Wearables, Home, and Accessories (up 54%): Apple's AirPod and Apple Watch division is living its best life — it's grown over 50% for two-straight quarters.

Apple's side hustles are entire companies... That Wearables division has the same sales as Starbucks. Services is bigger than Delta. And since 3/4 of Apple Watch sales are 1st-time Watch buyers, there's room to grow. But Apple's getting greedy — CEO Tim Cook thinks new $249 noise-cancelling AirPod Pros complement the regular ol' $159 Airpods. He thinks you should buy both.

That explains Apple's "record high" situation... iPhone sales have boringly dipped for four-straight quarters, but Apple's stock has never been higher. It's creatively replaced its lost biz with a new one focused on covering your body real estate with Wearables. As a reward, Apple's enjoying its $1.1 trillion market cap — making it the most valuable public company in the world (again).

Chew

Dunkin' pops 6% because it's onto the grand slam of fast food

Whip out the celebratory Boston Creme... Dunkin' shares rose 6% after its earnings report — the stock's tripled over the last 5 years as it dropped the "Donuts" from its name to focus on getting America to run on it. Investors are rewarding last quarter's commitment to the 4-part grand slam of chain restaurant profitability:

  1. Premium items: The 1 specific beverage mentioned in the entire earnings report: "Cold Brew" — Dunkin's new higher-priced option doesn't get latté-style barista art, but does drive profits.
  2. Breakfast: To make breakfast your daily habit, Dunkin' added menu items like the new Beyond Meat breakfast sandwich — it goes nationwide on 11/6.
  3. Digital Loyalty guilt: 25% of transactions in some cities are now paid with the "DD Perks" app. Dunkin' increasingly tempts you to return for that Coolatta with points.
  4. Delivery/Pick-Up: There's fast food peer pressure to deliver via 3rd party app. So even though your coffee routine is probably delivery guy-free, Dunkin has partnered up with GrubHub, just in case.

This is the new playbook for fast food... Chipotle is testing pickup, Shake Shack is pushing fried chicken sammies, and Starbucks' app is America's 2nd most-used mobile payment platform. Investors are evaluating fast food brands on this 4-part gameplan: Premium items, breakfast, loyalty apps, and delivery. Everyone's doing it.

Grapple

WWE stock drops 16% on Middle East pain

Tapped out... Too much investment pain. WWE stock dropped 16% Thursday after its 3rd quarter earnings revealed serious injuries to its pro wrestling business model:

  • Sales rose just 1%, profits got erased by 2/3, and bodyslams doubled. That last part wasn't real (we were acting).

WWE runs a good, clean operation... with 3 business lines: Media/TV, live events, and consumer products (picture action figures and t-shirts). Its media division gets most of the love from investors, bringing in about 78% of total revenues. WWE does TV HBO-style — cable and streaming (plus pay-per-view):

  • TV: Like HBO, you can watch WWE Smackdown on cable through its deal with Fox.
  • Streaming: Like HBO Now (and soon "HBO Max"), WWE will happily collect your $9.99/month in return for streaming access to Stone Cold Steve Austin and the Undertaker. But subscriber numbers dipped 9% to 1.5M.

The main issue is Saudi Arabia... WWE actually hosted the 1st ever wrestling match last night in Saudi Arabia featuring women. But its TV deal in the Middle East and North Africa is delayed — and some analysts think it's never happening. Adding that entire geography would've brought a lot of revenue at little extra cost to WWE (the matches are already happening — feeding video to Egypt doesn't cost that much). Investors crave those easy extra profits, but aren't sure they'll happen.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Un-pinned: Pinterest stock plummets 20% after its loss doubled on spending to expand expand Pinterest boards internationally
  • Stuffed: Kraft Heinz shares surged 13% even though its Velveeta-powered sales fell another 5% — investors hope it's hit a turnaround point
  • Powdered: Estée Lauder enjoyed its 11th straight quarter of sales beating analysts' expectations as it pumps out more makeup at airports
  • Early: Disney's streaming service, Disney+, arrives this month — and it's already got a million signed up pre-launch
  • Snuffed: Marlboro-owner Altria writes-down its investment in Juul by $4.5B after the latest ecig health issues

Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Beyond Meat

ID: 1000371

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales