Tuesday Mar.23, 2021

🎥 Zoom-as-a-Service

_On the (rail)road again..._
_On the (rail)road again..._

Hey Snackers,

After Elon Musk changed his title to "Technoking" of Tesla, we asked for your creative CEO titles — and you delivered. Some highlights:

  • Apple CEO Tim Cook: "Core of the Apple" (Steve Fischer)
  • Bumble CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd: "Queen Bee of Courtship" (Tara Purswani)
  • Costco CEO Craig Jelinek: "The Incredible Bulk" (Tony DeRosa)

In the markets: tech shares rebounded yesterday as Treasury bond yields fell.

ZaaS

Zoom's having a (pre) post-pandemic crisis, so it's launching Zoom-as-a-Service

Call her ZaaSy... Zoom has become a verb, a meme, and a lifestyle. Despite that powerful brand clout, Zoom's latest service involves un-branding itself. Zoom will license its video conferencing tech to other apps. We're calling it Zoom-as-a-service.

  • ZaaS: Companies will be able to weave an unbranded version of Zoom into their products. Think: dating apps, telehealth providers, and social media.
  • AaaS: Amazon is sneakily offering something similar with its own video conferencing tools. Those Slack video calls? They happen through Amazon (Bezos is everywhere).

A (pre) post-pandemic crisis... This past year, Zoom has been a coronaconomy star. In 2020, its sales quadrupled to a record $2.7B. In October, it notched a stunning $170B valuation as its stock soared. Since then, three vaccines have started rolling out — and Zoom shares have fallen ~40%. Now, Zoom's looking at other ways to grow.

  • One product, many applications: Instead of launching new products, Zoom is expanding use cases for its existing product (basically, just video).
  • Last year, Zoom announced OnZoom, which lets people charge for events they host (think: pilates class). With Zaas, Zoom is becoming more than just a standalone app — it'll be invisibly integrated into apps you use each day.

Don't let brand drive ego... Sometimes, brands can do more for themselves by unbranding. Just look at Stripe: its brand is "invisible," but it just became America's most valuable startup. Brand recognition is key to consumer-facing businesses like Zoom. But companies can't let their ego get in the way of good opportunities. If Amazon forced Slack to stick "powered by Amazon" on its video calls, Slack might've passed. By setting aside its ego with Zaas, Zoom is giving itself a new post-pandemic growth opportunity.

Rail

The biggest merger of the year so far: we're talking railroads, Biden, and the USMCA

Forget SpaceX shuttles... The hottest transportation story on Wall Street yesterday was a railroad merger. Canadian Pacific Railway has agreed to buy Kansas City Southern in a $25B cash-and-stock deal. It's the biggest merger announcement of the year so far. If approved, it would create the first railroad network connecting the US, Mexico, and Canada.

  • ~20K miles: The distance the new company would operate, generating ~$8.7B in sales per year. Start planning your Toronto-Vegas-Cabo trip (if you're a car part or grain product).
  • Kansas City Southern shares jumped 11% to a record high yesterday, and have more than doubled in value over the past year.

It's fun to stay at the USMCA... USMCA = US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Trump signed the major trade treaty into law last year to replace NAFTA. This railroad deal is an effort to capitalize on an anticipated post-pandemic increase in North American trade.

  • "Build Back Better": President Biden has pledged to spend trillions on infrastructure (think: roads and bridges). That could benefit railway companies like Kansas City that are transporting gravel, metal, machinery, and other building materials cross-country.
  • "Clean energy future:" Another focus of Biden's BBB plan. Rail is 4X more fuel efficient than trucking. One train can keep 300+ trucks off public roads and produce 75% less greenhouse gas emissions.

It's possible to invest in public policy... Cannabis stocks can be an investment in the possibility of federal marijuana legalization. Electric vehicle stocks can be an investment in environmental regulation and government-sponsored EV subsidies. By buying Kansas City, Canadian Pacific is investing in North American trade policies and a potential spending boost from Biden's infrastructure proposal.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Vax: AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine was shown to be safe and 79% effective in late-stage US trials. The company plans to request FDA authorization by mid-April.
  • Regulate: President Biden nominated tech critic Lina Khan to the Federal Trade Commission. If confirmed, she'll vote on important Big Tech antitrust cases.
  • Level: Fortnite-maker Epic Games is reportedly closing in on a large funding round, which will value it at $28B.
  • BBB: Biden admin officials are reportedly crafting a huge infrastructure and economic package that could cost up to $3T.
  • Um: Apple's HomePod Mini has a secret temperature and humidity sensor just waiting to be switched on.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Adobe and GameStop
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell testify to the House Financial Services Committee on their pandemic response

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon and Apple

ID: 1574546

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.