Rail

The biggest merger of the year so far: we're talking railroads, Biden, and the USMCA

Snacks / Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Forget SpaceX shuttles... The hottest transportation story on Wall Street yesterday was a railroad merger. Canadian Pacific Railway has agreed to buy Kansas City Southern in a $25B cash-and-stock deal. It's the biggest merger announcement of the year so far. If approved, it would create the first railroad network connecting the US, Mexico, and Canada.

  • ~20K miles: The distance the new company would operate, generating ~$8.7B in sales per year. Start planning your Toronto-Vegas-Cabo trip (if you're a car part or grain product).
  • Kansas City Southern shares jumped 11% to a record high yesterday, and have more than doubled in value over the past year.

It's fun to stay at the USMCA... USMCA = US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Trump signed the major trade treaty into law last year to replace NAFTA. This railroad deal is an effort to capitalize on an anticipated post-pandemic increase in North American trade.

  • "Build Back Better": President Biden has pledged to spend trillions on infrastructure (think: roads and bridges). That could benefit railway companies like Kansas City that are transporting gravel, metal, machinery, and other building materials cross-country.
  • "Clean energy future:" Another focus of Biden's BBB plan. Rail is 4X more fuel efficient than trucking. One train can keep 300+ trucks off public roads and produce 75% less greenhouse gas emissions.

It's possible to invest in public policy... Cannabis stocks can be an investment in the possibility of federal marijuana legalization. Electric vehicle stocks can be an investment in environmental regulation and government-sponsored EV subsidies. By buying Kansas City, Canadian Pacific is investing in North American trade policies and a potential spending boost from Biden's infrastructure proposal.

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