Thursday Sep.15, 2022

☎️ Google’s $4B anti-fine

Preinstalled problems (Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images)
Preinstalled problems (Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

“Touching base” with your coworkers is getting literal: as MLB attendance declines, the Seattle Mariners hosted a “Work from the Ballpark” day featuring WiFi access, lunch, and in-park café seating. All 150 of the $50 WFB passes sold out.

Stocks inched up yesterday after Tuesday’s wipeout, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.7% after its worst day in two years.

Crackdown

Google gets slapped with a record $4B EU antitrust fine — and other big techies could be next

Googling "how to delete apps"… Yesterday the European Union ordered Google to pay a massive $4B after the tech titan lost an appeal challenging an antitrust ruling. Back in 2018, the search giant was fined $5B over accusations it forced manufacturers to preinstall Google apps (think: Chrome, Search) on Android phones. FYI: about 70% of smartphones in Europe run on Google’s Android.

  • Google vs. the EU: Over the past decade, Google's faced $8B+ in EU antitrust fines, including $2.4B last year for biased results on its Google Shopping platform.
  • Double whammy: Yesterday, South Korea’s privacy committee fined Google $50M and Meta $22M for collecting user data for targeted ads.
  • FYI: Google has a $125B cash pile, so a $4B fine won’t make a huge dent — but the regulatory aftermath could force Google to change its profitable biz model.

The EU’s antitrust arsenal… is stacked. Earlier this year, EU policymakers approved laws aimed at regulating tech juggernauts. Under the Digital Markets Act, companies can be fined up to 10% of their global revenue for breaking the rules — and up to 20% for repeat offenses. It could all add up for techies caught in the crosshairs:

  • Apple’s faced several EU antitrust charges, including over its refusal to let competitors like PayPal use its contactless payment tech.
  • Amazon’s been stuck in a three-year investigation over how it collects data from rival retailers and uses Prime to force sellers into its logistics biz.

“Hot Antitrust Summer” may be over… but a chilly antitrust fall may be dawning. Antitrust crackdowns abroad could push policymakers to increase pressure in the US, where tech regulation has largely stalled. It’s already starting: yesterday California regulators sued Amazon, alleging it prevents merchants from offering lower prices through competitors’ sites.

ByeBack

Businesses are buying back their shares by the billions before a new tax hits buyback boosts

It’s BB szn… Big businesses are buying back shares by the boatload. This past week, Comcast, Johnson & Johnson, T-Mobile, UBS, and Starbucks all announced plans to buy back billions worth of their own shares. Refresher: Some companies regularly buy back shares to boost prices and reward investors (think: fewer available shares + similar earnings = higher earnings per share). Two reasons for the buyback bonanza:

  • Bargain prices: Because stocks have plunged this year, it’s (relatively) cheaper for companies to splurge on their stock.
  • Extra fees incoming: President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will impose a 1% tax on buybacks from large corporations beginning next year.

Buyback brouhaha… Buybacks have boomed in recent years. In the first quarter of this year, S&P 500 buybacks hit a record $281B (though the index itself had its worst performance in years). Biden’s 1% tax is projected to raise $74B in the next decade, but critics say the tax will reduce investment and innovation and hurt investors. Over the past 20 years, big buybackers have outperformed others by 60%.

The big buyback era probably isn’t ending… because the benefits still outweigh the costs. Experts say buybacks are unlikely to disappear, since a tax would have to be 10% to persuade companies to ditch buybacks altogether. Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Bank of America — the “buyback monsters” — accounted for 25% of all buybacks in the past year, and they’re likely to keep splurging on themselves.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Walbank: This month America’s #1 retailer, Walmart, plans to launch checking accounts for employees and shoppers. Through its fintech venture, One, Walmart’s reportedly hoping to expand to loans and investing.
  • Warm: In a rare move, Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard has given away his jacket company, transferring its ownership to a nonprofit. All of Patagonia’s profits will now be used to fight the climate crisis.
  • Forked: Ethereum miners said they'd launch a proof-of-work ethereum fork within 24 hours of the Merge. As ETH moves to proof of stake, miners hope this splinter chain will keep them in business.
  • ETA: Unprofitable cloud company Twilio, which helps corporates like Uber and DoorDash chat with customers, is laying off 11% of employees after growing at “an astonishing rate” mid-pandemic.
  • Adflix: Netflix estimates that an ad-supported tier (set to launch this year) will reach 40M viewers by the end of 2023. The Flix is hunting for fresh $$ after losing ~1M subscribers last quarter.

Thursday

  • Hispanic Heritage Month begins
  • Jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Adobe

Authors of this Snacks own: ethereum and shares of Google, Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Amazon, Starbucks, Uber, and Netflix

ID: 2426382

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.