Wednesday Aug.19, 2020

🏠 Home Depot brings home $4B

_Time to go to Home Depot_
_Time to go to Home Depot_

Hey Snackers,

Crushing social lives wasn't enough for Excel spreadsheets. They're also taking over our genetic code: scientists had to rename human genes to stop Excel from erroneously reading them as dates.

The S&P 500 finally notched a record close yesterday, after a week of hovering just below. The market has rallied over 50% since its corona-induced March 23rd low. The S&P's fresh all-time high confirms the start of a new bull market and the end of Wall Street's shortest bear market.

Renovate

Home Depot has its best quarter in 20 years — the "House Hype" is (still) real

Swapped the $30 red lipstick... for a $30 red Adirondack chair. Americans shifted their spending from restaurants and clothes to the only place that matters now: home. People re-painted kitchens, re-tiled floors and finally changed the broken toilet seat. We thought the DIY "house hype" might be slowing back in May. Based off Home Depot's latest earnings report, the hype is still strong:

  • Home Depot's sales soared 23%, coming in at $38B. That's Home Depot's biggest quarterly sales growth in almost 20 years.
  • It's extra impressive growth for a big old retailer like Home Depot, which is past its peak growth spurt. During the same quarter last year, sales jumped just 1%.

And yet... the stock fell after the news. Home Depot's CEO didn't sound too hyped about the outlook for this quarter. He's uncertain how long the home spending boom can last:

  • US retail spending jumped for the 3rd straight month in July. But the $600/week boosted unemployment benefit expired at the end of July.
  • Stimulus checks boosted spending, but now they've been... spent. TBD if we'll get a 2nd round (they could be smaller).
  • DIY Home Makeover isn't an everyday thing. Cleaning companies like Clorox can expect continued demand, but there's only so many times you can landscape your garden.

Home Depot is consistent... It has paid dividends to shareholders for 134 quarters in a row. On Sept 17th, it'll pay each shareholder $1.50 per share as a cash dividend. Home Depot took home ~$11B in profit last year, which is about the same as what Amazon made. Yet Amazon is worth 5.5X more because investors see more potential future profit growth. Home Depot's present is pretty strong, though.

Study

Chegg sales soar on the e-learning surge — a decade of acquisitions just paid off

$357 for a Macro textbook... And you better get the new 19th edition. You shell out $300 for a textbook you only use for 3 months, then sell it for $50 (or use it as a dumbell). Chegg wants the days of rent-priced books to be over. The EdTech company is known for digital and physical textbook rentals. As learning moved remote, Chegg racked up a straight-A earnings report:

  • Sales soared 63% from the same quarter last year. Chegg brought in $153M because Calc is hard, but remote Calc is harder.
  • New subscribers jumped 67% on the rush for more learning support. Chegg added more subscribers in 3 months than in all of 2018.

Sexier than textbooks... Chegg wants to be more "Netflix of Learning," less "Blockbuster of Studying." While textbooks are a hook, most of Chegg's sales come from digital study materials and tutoring. It offers $19.95/month Study Packs that include homework solutions, practice sets, and Q&A with "experts."

  • Chegg has been on an e-learning buying spree since 2010. Acquisitions include: a tutoring platform, a flashcard tool, and an $80M online coding school. Those acquisitions are seriously paying off now.

Chegg owns the whole customer value chain... Chegg isn't just a middleman platform that connects you with something (like Airbnb or Uber). It's one of the few digital platforms that owns the content, transactions, data, and distribution channels. This direct ownership, combined with the scale of its offerings, is helping it benefit from the e-learning surge — Chegg's shares have doubled this year.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • WFO: Amazon is expanding its physical offices and adding 3.5K new corporate jobs in 6 US cities — work-from-office isn't dead after all.
  • Lazy: Reclining couch-chair maker La-Z-Boy posts a surprise quarterly profit on strong demand (WFH with your feet up).
  • Surprise: Corporate software giant Oracle is reportedly in advanced talks to buy TikTok's US operations.
  • Cartload: Walmart's ecommerce sales nearly double on e-grocery and curbside pickup. The average shopper spent 27% more per transaction.
  • Epic: Fortnite-maker Epic Games says Apple threatened to block it from developing apps on all of its platforms.

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Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon, Square, Walmart, and Apple

ID: 1307183

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.