Friday May.06, 2022

🛒 Ecommerce wipeout

Online retailers have a “pull forward” problem (Noam Galai/Getty Images)
Online retailers have a “pull forward” problem (Noam Galai/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Welp. A day after staging a classic “relief rally” on the Fed’s rate hike, stocks wiped it all out and then some in their worst day since 2020. The Dow and S&P dropped more than 3% and the Nasdaq fell 5%, as the economic realities of high inflation and slowing growth set back in.

Just about nothing was spared: tech led the selloff (Netflix -8%), with an assist from ecommerce (Wayfair -26%... more on that in a sec). But even banks like JPMorgan and non-cyclicals like Coke and P&G got hit.

Click

Ecommerce stocks are getting hammered as shoppers get back to spending like it’s 2019

The return of (IRL) retail therapy… While you ditch front-porch packages for fitting rooms and food courts, online retailers are being left in the dust. In yesterday’s big selloff, shares of Shopify sank 15% after the popular ecomm platform saw sales slow for the fourth straight quarter.

  • Ripped receipt: Shopify’s sales rose 22%, to $1.2B, but that was a fraction of its 110% gain from the same quarter last year.
  • Troublesome trifecta: Execs blamed inflation, labor shortages, and a return to IRL shopping for the slowdown — and said the rest of the year doesn’t look much better.

Caribbean cruise > cyber sales... In the past two years, nearly a fifth of every dollar spent in the US came from online orders. Yet with consumers returning to their 2019 spending habits — on concerts, vacays, and Sunday brunch — the boom in e-buying is losing momentum. US ecommerce sales have dropped 3X compared to 2020 levels. That’s showing up in the bottom line of some of the biggest pandemic winners:

  • Shares of Wayfair tumbled after the online furniture seller lost nearly 2M customers and $320M in sales last quarter.
  • Both Etsy and eBay lowered their sales forecasts for the year, and didn't say when (or if) they’d return to pandemic-era profits.
  • A week ago, Amazon’s stock had its worst day in over a decade after cooling sales led to its first quarterly loss since 2015.

The Great Normalization is here... Ecommerce sites benefited from a huge pull-forward boost in demand during the pandemic, fueled by stimmy checks and boredom. As Visa’s and Mastercard’s earnings showed, consumers are still opening their wallets — they just have new priorities. For platforms like Shopify, it means adjusting expectations for the new new normal of more balanced spending.

Slick

Shell — Europe’s biggest oil biz — posted a record $9B profit, yet whispers of a “windfall tax” are growing louder

Come Shell or high water… Soaring energy prices: bad for consumers, great for oil companies. How great? Yesterday, London-based Shell reported a record $9.1B quarterly profit — 3X last year’s — despite $4B+ in losses related to its leaving Russia. It’s something of a trend.

  • Pumpin’ profits: In the most recent quarter, BP posted its highest profit in a decade, despite $26B in Russia losses. Exxon said it doubled profits from last year, and Chevron quadrupled its haul.
  • Buy, buy, buybacks: Buoyed by bumper profits, all four oil giants plan to boost share buybacks and raise dividends, two ways to return $$ to investors.

Big buybacks, big blowback… US and UK lawmakers have started calling for a “windfall tax” on energy giants, a one-time tax on their excess profits. The idea is to use the cash to help consumers with rising prices at the pump. Critics say the money would be better spent investing in renewable energy.

  • Winds of change: Spain and Italy already slapped windfall taxes on some energy companies, but experts don’t expect the US or UK to follow suit.

Windfalls come in many forms… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave oil giants a financial windfall in booming profits. It also gave them a strategic windfall: it illustrated how dependent the global economy still is on fossil fuels, whether we like it or not. Earlier this week, VW said it planned to keep using coal because of a proposed EU ban on Russian oil. Then Shell’s CEO told investors the war proves the need for big oil producers, despite the pressure to act on the climate crisis.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Shock: Covid killed 15M people in 2020 and 2021 — or one of every 500 people in the world — the WHO said. That would be nearly three times the previously reported toll.
  • Fresh: Elon Musk has raised over $7B to help fund his $44B takeover of Twitter, reducing his personal risk in the buyout. The investors include a Saudi prince, Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, and crypto exchange Binance.
  • Plug: EV upstart Lucid said it delivered 360 cars last quarter and now has 30K reservations for its Air sedan. The company is sticking with its reduced production target of 12-14K cars for the year.
  • Bud: More evidence consumers are flush with cash: Budweiser parent AB InBev saw quarterly profits grow nearly double what was expected, buoyed by beer drinkers trading up for pricier brews like Corona and Stella.
  • Tree: Stanford’s getting $1.1B to fund a new school focused on the climate crisis. The donation comes courtesy of John Doerr, a Silicon Valley OG, and is the second-largest gift ever to an academic institution.

Friday

  • Monthly employment numbers
  • Earnings expected from Cigna, DraftKings, and Madison Square Garden Entertainment

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Exxon, Twitter, Amazon, Shopify, and Netflix

Correction: We misstated that earnings were expected from Zillow and Berkshire Hathaway. They had already reported. Zillow reported on May 5 and Berkshire Hathaway on April 30. We regret the error.

ID: 2189242

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

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China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

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Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.