Monday May.04, 2020

🎤 Amazon picks good *PR* over profits

Don Bezos to shareholders: "_Please. Take a seat._"
Don Bezos to shareholders: "_Please. Take a seat._"

Hey Snackers,

Eels at a Japanese aquarium have become so shy from not seeing humans during lockdown, that staff aren't able to care for their health. Now the aquarium is calling for volunteers to FaceTime the lonely eels: the goal of this 3-day "face showing" festival is "not forgetting the existence of humans." Got me in my eel-ings.

April saw the biggest monthly stock market gains since 1987 — As states start re-opening for real in May, we'll see if they stay this high (the S&P 500 is just 16% off record highs).

Snackin': Watch your Snacks Daily pod hosts Jack & Nick chat with Mrs. Dow Jones on our past investing stories, accelerated trends, and the corona-conomy (life is just Zoom backgrounds these days).

Spend

Amazon sales soar, but shares plunge as Bezos puts good PR and worker health over profits

Be humble. Sit down.... "You may want to take a seat" is not exactly a phrase shareholders want to hear in an earnings announcement. But that's exactly what Amazon told investors to do as it reported results from the Jan - March quarter. First, Amazon dropped key stats that revealed a lockdown-related sales surge (hoarding, confirmed):

  • +26%: How much Amazon's sales jumped — the 'Zon racked up over $75B in total sales, their biggest 1st quarter leap ever (it's usually the slowest quarter).
  • -29%: How much Amazon's profit fell — Bezos took home a smaller-than-expected $2.5B in profit, despite the sales boom. Amazon brought in way more money, but spent even way more.

Okay, now actually take a seat.... Amazon proceeded to explain that in the upcoming quarter, it expects to make around $4B in profit. Then, Amazon explained that investors can kiss that $4B in profit goodbye:

  • Amazon plans to spend the entire $4B "and perhaps a bit more" on corona-related expenses like getting products to customers on time and keeping worried workers safe while they're working in warehouses.
  • COVID-19 testing facilities, PPE equipment, and higher wages for hourly employees are all on the docket.
  • Amazonians ≈ Sarahs. After hiring 175K extra workers to handle increased demand, there are now as many Americans getting an Amazon paycheck (840K) as there are Sarahs (842K)
  • Amazon stock has fallen nearly 8% since the announcement, dragging the market down with it. Guess some bummed investors got up from their seats.

Profiting from a disaster is a bad look... and Amazon doesn't want to look like it's doing that, especially since its sales surge was clearly related to the pandemic. For Amazon, the way customers and employees perceive it in the long run is more important than a few billion in profit. That's why Amazon went on to list 34 bullet points about everything it's doing to help employees, customers, and communities. It chose PR over profits.

Highs

Who's up...

  • Biggest non-shocker of the year... You wouldn't have imagined it in 2019, but by now even your salamander knows that Clorox is crushing it. Sales jumped a lemon-scented 15%, Clorox's biggest quarterly sales jump in ten years. Cleaning products jumped 32% on their "99.9% of germs"-killing prowess. But what shocked investors is how Clorox even raised its economic forecast for the year — it thinks obsessive germ-quashing isn't a fad, but a long-term behavioral shift.

  • Team(s) work makes the dream work... Microsoft's last quarter was barely affected by the corona-conomy (if anything, they got a boost). Investors couldn't hear anything but the deafening sound of Microsoft's cloud success and 22% pop in profit. Remote collaboration tool Microsoft Teams was the belle of the earnings ball: daily users soared 70%, from 44M in mid-March to 75M at the end of April. Oh btw — Teams has video conferencing built in, so it's now coming for Zoom's head, which it basically calls a one-trick pony.

Lows

...and who's down

  • I'm blue, Da-ba-dee, A-di-das... Stan Smith legend Adidas saw its profits fall 96% last quarter — the sportswear brand blamed the fact that 70% of its global stores were shut. According to Adidas' CEO, sales abruptly fell off a cliff mid-March. A 35% jump in online sales wasn't enough to offset massive in-store losses — Now Adidas predicts sales will plunge another 40% over the next 3 months.

  • Not the good kind of burn... Plane-making giant Boeing burned through $4.7B last quarter, as coronavirus losses and 737 Max issues continue to widen the gap between how much money it's shelling out (a lot) and how much it's bringing in (not much). It only delivered 50 planes, compared to 149 during the same period last year. And Boeing still has big bills to pay each month — that's why it just raised $25B in debt on top of the $15.5B in cash it already had. It's eager to prove to investors that it won't have a layover in Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Celebrate: Since spas are closed, here's some Mother's Day gift inspo (we repeat — Sunday is Mother's Day).
  • Conference: How to avoid "Zoom fatigue" — that Caribbean beach background isn't fooling anyone.
  • Eat: The riveting history of frozen pizza in the US — a multibillion-dollar business built on disruption, secrets, and rivalry (Totino's vs DiGiorno).
  • Consider: The science behind our impatience with social distancing — it's the hardest kind of decision-making context for humans.
  • Work: The most important metrics your company probably isn't tracking, that customers care about most (move over KPIs).

This Week

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon, Shopify, Microsoft, and Beyond Meat

ID: 1174172

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The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

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The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

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To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

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