Monday Feb.22, 2021

💵 Walmart, Amazon, and the minimum wage

_Heavy cart, slim margin_
_Heavy cart, slim margin_

Hey Snackers,

Barely five months after unveiling its first 5G phone, Apple is already hiring engineers to work on 6G. Knowing Apple, "10G Plus Max Pro" job postings are probably next.

Stocks fell for the week on rising unemployment claims and inflation worries. The US 10-year Treasury yield crossed 1.3% for the first time since February 2020. Meanwhile: Bitcoin hit a $1T market cap for the first time ever.

Pay

Walmart raises wages for 425K employees, but it probably won't outdo Amazon

Hair oils are thriving... Walmart posted record sales of $152B last quarter, as we stocked up on groceries and #selfcare goodies. In 2020, Walmart filled 7X more online orders than in 2019 (curbside pickup FTW). But it's projecting slower growth this year, so the stock dipped after last week's earnings. What didn't dip: wages.

  • Walmart is raising wages for 425K workers, bumping its employee average to ~$15/hour (up from $14). But it's keeping its starting wage at $11.
  • Walmart = America's largest private employer. With the raises, about half of its 1.5M US workers will earn at least $15/hour.

Sounds familiar... The Biden admin is trying to raise the federal minimum wage to $15/hour by 2025 (from $7.25/hour). It's questionable whether that'll get through lawmakers. A Congressional study found that a $15 minimum wage would lift 1.3M Americans out of poverty. The same study found it may also leave 1.3M jobless because of higher labor costs. This month, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon met with Biden: McMillon supports raising the federal minimum wage, but hasn't yet endorsed a $15/hour minimum. Still...

  • Walmart has to compete with its peers for essential workers, especially in online-order fulfillment roles. That's why the raises are only for frontline associates.
  • Amazon (aka: Walmart's biggest rival) raised its US starting wage to $15 back in 2018, and has lobbied Congress for a $15 federal minimum. Target made $15 its starting wage for all workers in 2020. Why isn't Walmart doing the same?

Profit margin could be a factor... explaining Amazon's and Walmart's different stances on wages. Amazon's biz is mainly online, making it more cost-friendly than Walmart's (which includes 11K+ physical stores). Also: groceries make up more than half of Walmart's sales, and they're harder to profit from than tech. While broccoli has a slim profit margin, Amazon's AWS cloud is its biggest profit puppy. Walmart did more sales in 2020 than Amazon, but its profit was much smaller than Amazon's: on $520B in sales, Walmart made $15.2B in profit — on $386B in sales, Amazon made $21B in profit. Walmart's biz is more sensitive to wage increases, but it needs them to compete with the 'Zon.

Highs

Who's up...

You used to ping me on my cell phone... Cloud company Twilio helps other companies talk to customers (think: text notifications, emails, support calls). Twilio's 221K customers include Uber, Instacart, DoorDash, and Netflix (all those password reset emails). It's a good time to be in remote comms: Twilio shares jumped after it reported expectation-crushing earnings on Wednesday (feat. a surprise adjusted profit). Both sales and customer growth accelerated from the previous quarter, and revenue jumped 65% from 2019.

The Tractor Factor... John Deere stock soared to a fresh record last week on killer earnings. Last quarter, Deere's profit more than doubled from 2020 as farming and construction perked up. Sales popped 23%, partly thanks to an efficient new operating strategy. The construction icon could benefit from President Biden's "Build Back Better" plan, which pledges to mobilize American manufacturing for a modern infrastructure (think: roads, bridges, buildings). Deere boosted its forecast for 2021, expecting greener pastures ahead.

Lows

...and who's down

Homeland's favorite stock... Palantir is the secretive software company that crunches data for big clients like intelligence agencies. Since going public in October, Palantir has been a little less mysterious (at least, its finances have): shares plunged 9% for the week after Palantir reported a $148M loss for last quarter — and $1.2B for the full year. Still, average revenue per customer was a whopping $7.9M last year. 2020 sales beat expectations, as Palantir won contracts with the US Army, the Air Force, and the FDA (and they probably didn't even get a free trial).

Up, in a bad way... US jobless claims hit a four-week high of 861K for the week ended February 13th, rising for the second week straight. Despite a steady drop in Covid cases as vaccines roll out, ~10M Americans are still unemployed. And the pace of recovery is slowing: in January, the US economy added just 49K jobs. Investors are looking forward to more help from Uncle Sam. Dems are on track to (narrowly) pass President Biden’s $1.9T stimulus package, which includes boosted unemployment aid and $1.4K payments to most Americans.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Care: Seven verbal habits of people with high emotional intelligence.
  • Watch: The 100 best movies on Netflix right now, so you can stream with purpose.
  • Think: Five habits that will help your brain stay in peak condition.
  • Live: How to sprinkle ancient philosophy into your daily routine for a better life.
  • Work: Four ways to cope with Zoom burnout if you're not a cat.
  • Connect: The liberating effects of quitting social media (from people who did it).

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Palo Alto Networks
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Square and Home Depot
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Lowe's
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Best Buy, Domino's, Wayfair, and HP
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Foot Locker

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Walmart and Amazon

ID: 1533596

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative