Tuesday Sep.01, 2020

🍿 Netflix launches free streaming

_When you finally get off the parents' Netflix_

Hey Snackers,

Happy 1st of September — time has no meaning anymore. Dunkin' is celebrating the onset of fall with a bizarre Pumpkin Spice Latte sign that confirms we have all lost our minds: "Uh Oh Spicy! Pumpkin! HAHAHAHA! Pumpkin Tasty." Weirdly, makes sense.

The techy Nasdaq stock index inched up on the wings of Tesla and Apple shares, which jumped after their stock splits yesterday. The market had its best August in over 30 years.

Stream

Netflix launches a free streaming site to reach its next 100M subscribers

Free Netflix... Not the kind where you mooch off your parents. Netflix launched a new global website offering popular movies and shows for free, no subscription required. It's the same idea as Costco free samples, if Costco gave away a full Prime Rib instead of one edamame. Bingeable titles include: Stranger Things, Bird Box, and Love is Blind. Before you break a finger rushing to cancel your subscription:

The catch: There are only 10 movies/shows available, though Netflix says it might shake it up.
The other catch: You can only watch the 1st episode of a show. Movies are available in full (because Boss Baby is important viewing).
BTW: Netflix still hates ads (except its own). This isn't your Spotify-style "freemium" model — the only ads you'll see are Netflix's attempts to get you subbed.

Forgot Tiger King existed... It's a smart, low-cost marketing play on Netflix's part. It allows the Flix to unlock a new segment of price-sensitive users. It's less intense than the existing free trial — you don't have to drop your credit card number or put an iCal reminder to "cancel subscription" in a month.

The other other catch: The content is only available on computer browsers and Android phones. Netflix isn't targeting the well-worn US market, which is saturated with iPhones (compared to the rest of the world, which is mostly Android).

Netflix is looking for its next 100M subscribers... It has 193M subscribers and added a huge 10M last quarter. But it's expecting growth to dramatically slow to 2.5M new subs this quarter. The lockdown streaming surge may have passed its peak, and streaming wars have heated up with newbies like Disney+. Netflix is looking to emerging markets like India and Brazil for its next 100M. It's hoping the cliffhanger at the end of Stranger Things S1E1 gets people subbing.

Fly

United drops its $200 flight change fee, then Delta and American (had to) follow

Pandemics, fires, and hurricanes... The chances of you having to change your flight in 2020 are... high. In August, TSA checkpoint passenger volumes hit their highest levels since March. But even at these highs, travel is still down ~60% from last year. Now airlines are turning to revolutionary (for them) ways to attract passengers:

On Sunday, United said it'll permanently scrap its $200 change fee for domestic flights.
Delta and American predictably followed suit yesterday and dropped change fees.
Southwest would've done it too, except it already doesn't charge them.

Why kill a profit puppy?... For decades, airlines have raked in big bucks from profitable add-ons like luggage fees. Add-on fees have 5X'd over the past decade and made up 15% of US airlines' sales last year.

Sounds counter-intuitive: You'd think that airlines would ramp up fees during a downturn. But in a pandemic, those change fees are sales-killers.
Airlines are desperate to get customers back, especially since their $25B government bailout expires on October 1st. Massive layoffs are on the horizon — American already warned it's cutting 19K jobs.

Oligopoly players move together... In a monopoly, 1 company controls a sector/service. In an oligopoly, a few dominate. In the US, 4 airlines control 80% of the flight market (#oligopular). Once United dropped its change fee, Delta and American followed ASAP. Oligopoly players can't afford to have 1 rival snag an advantage with customers. But they also maintain leverage over customers by acting together (if everyone charges fees, you have no choice). This time it worked in customers' favor.

What else we’re Snackin’

Zoomin: Zoom's quarterly sales more than quadrupled from last year to $663M for 1 reason that requires no further explanation.
KitKat: Choco-legend Nestle is buying peanut-allergy treatment company Aimmune Therapeutics for $2B.
Shroomz: Magic mushroom drug-backer Compass Pathways files to go public in the US.
Crispy: Utz, the maker of salty things you eat at sports stadiums, went public yesterday via SPAC after 99 years as a family-owned biz.
Droney: Amazon wins FAA approval for its Prime Air drone delivery fleet, joining UPS and Google-owned Wing in the droney skies.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Tuesday

Earnings expected from Jamf

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple and Amazon

ID: 1318770

Latest Stories

Matt Phillips

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢

Pop Quiz!

What’s the world’s busiest airport?

Don't be a sucka

Rani Molla

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Frozen Dead Guys

The audacious and expensive world of cryogenics

Jamie Wilde

US-NORWAY-TRADITION-DEATH-FESTIVAL-OFFBEAT

Jack Raines

Adios, ERP

By one measure, stocks haven't looked this bad in decades

Earnings are important, but they aren't everything in the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials Average Closes Day 477 Points Up

Rani Molla

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Meta’s battle with ChatGPT begins now

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Matt Phillips

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

Parts distributor Genuine Parts beat, offsetting weak sales with cost control.
Credit card company Discover jumps, as delinquencies stabilize.
Builder D.R. Horton benefitted from the fact that there’s still no houses to buy.
Credit score giant Equifax was hurt by the fact that nobody wants mortgages.
KeyCorp, Comerica latest banks bummed by depositors demanding higher rates .
Insurance Marsh & McLennan did well by investing cash at high short-term rates.
Private equity giant Blackstone’s results were meh, due, in part, to lack of exits.

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Rani Molla

12h

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Exclusive | Inside Amazon’s Secret Operation to Gather Intel on Rivals

April 18th

13h

What’s happening

15h

Tesla pushes for a massive Musk pay package as the EV maker rides the struggle sedan

Jamie Wilde

Read

15h

Big Banks Earnings Wrap: Investment banking rebounds, but interest rates are a double-edged sword

Nia Warfield

Read

Time’s ticking

4/17/24

Big tech vs. big government

Jack Raines

More taxes, eh?

4/17/24

Capital gains taxes won’t fix Canada’s terrible housing market

Canada's proposed solution to its housing crisis may exacerbate the problem instead.

SWITZERLAND-DIPLOMACY-ECONOMY-SUMMIT-DAVOS

Jack Morse

4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses.

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees.

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Worldcoin, Sam Altman's Crypto Project, Is Building a Layer-2 Chain

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses.

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Rani Molla

Ad-ing up

4/17/24

Turns out Netflix makes more money if it just acts like regular TV

Streaming companies will let you watch ad-free, but it will cost you.

Earnings

4/17/24

Companies report things

Nia Warfield

4/17/24

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.