Friday Oct.23, 2020

📲 Quibi's quick demise (it bites)

_Chrissy's Court is closed: the Quibi funeral_
_Chrissy's Court is closed: the Quibi funeral_

Hey Snackers,

We just want to congratulate Reuters on one of the cheekiest headlines of 2020: "Brazilian police catch senator hiding cash between his buttcheeks, source says." Bummer.

Markets ticked up yesterday as weekly jobless claims dropped to their second-lowest level since March. Also: House Speaker Pelosi said a coronavirus aid deal was “just about there." We'll see.

Bites

Quibi is sadly shutting down six months after launch (it's not about timing)

Calling it quiti... Quibi, short for "quick bites," is shutting down just six months after launching. The video startup raised a gargantuan $1.75B before debuting in April — now it's quitting to avoid losing investors any more money. In the likely chance you never downloaded it: Quibi is (was?) a mobile-only short video streamer (~8-minute episodes). It drummed up massive hype for three reasons:

  • Major backers: With DreamWorks founder Jeff Katzenberg and former HP CEO Meg Whitman at the helm, Quibi got mega bucks from investors like Disney and Comcast.
  • Big stars: Quibi splurged on HBO-level production quality shows and big names like Liam Hemsworth, Reese Witherspoon, and Chrissy Teigen.
  • Cool tech: Quibi's "Turnstyle" feature lets you seamlessly switch between horizontal and vertical viewing (but it got sued for that).

No "Quibi and Quaker Oats"... Quibi was made for "in-between" moments. But we're not subway-and-Quibi'ing since the pandemic killed commutes — we're also not Quibi-ing while nuking oatmeal during WFH. Quibi missed paid subscriber targets, and reportedly lost 90% of early users after kindly sending a "your trial is expiring" email (#bless).

Content is king... While Quibi has partly blamed timing, it likely failed because its content wasn't compelling enough to charge $5-$8/month (see: show about a golden arm). Those "in-between" moments still exist — but they're dominated by extra-short, user-generated content on free apps like Instagram, TikTok, and Snap. And those are thriving during the corona-conomy.

Crypto

Venmo-owner PayPal will let users buy, sell, and shop with crypto

Requesting 1/1000 of a bitcoin... for the truffle pizza we shared last night. Venmo-owner PayPal is launching crypto buying, selling, and shopping on its service. While buying/selling crypto isn't novel, the spending part is:

  • PayPal users will be able to shop at the 26M merchants on its network starting in early 2021. Think: paying for your burger or Bloomies in bitcoin.
  • US account holders can start buying virtual coins on PayPal in the next few weeks — PayPal's planning to bring this to Venmo and other countries next year.
  • BTW: The merchants won't actually get paid in crypto. PayPal is basically handling sales on the backend to turn your bitcoin into regular bucks.

Big on the crypto... small on the currency. Crypto hasn’t been widely adopted as a real currency for three key reasons: lack of trust, lack of acceptance, and price volatility. You don't want to spend a bitcoin on a Birkin bag if that same coin could be worth double next week. Also: crypto transactions tend to be slower than traditional payments.

This could be crypto’s mainstream moment... or not. With 346M active accounts, PayPal has waaaayy bigger reach than other crypto-slinging fintechs. That's why bitcoin hit a record high for 2020 on PayPal's news. Just like GM’s EV Hummer could bring non-EVers to the electric side, PayPal could help normalize crypto. There's also a big chance that people won't see any value in using it, too.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Treat: The FDA approved Gilead’s remdesivir, making it the only fully approved COVID-19 treatment in the US.
  • Snacky: Unilever, the CPG giant which makes everything from Ben & Jerry's to Tresemme shampoo, had a strong return to sales growth.
  • Homeland: Data company Palantir is developing a tool to help the US government track the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines (#vaxspy).
  • Zucked: Facebook is building a "Neighborhoods" feature that could rival Nextdoor, which is reportedly gearing up to go public.
  • Bulky: GM shares closed at a new 2020 high after it successfully debuted "the world's first all-electric supertruck," aka Hummer EV.

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Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
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The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.