Friday Sep.04, 2020

🍜 Campbell's Millennial soup moment

_When the Campbell Soup delivery arrives_
_When the Campbell Soup delivery arrives_

Hey Snackers,

As if Baby Yoda hadn't already done enough for this world, the tech that was used to film 'The Mandalorian' could now ease the film industry's COVID production struggles. Like Advil for our hearts, Yoda bae eases the pain.

The Nasdaq plunged nearly 5% as tech stocks had their worst day since March. Apple and Tesla were some of the biggest losers, shedding over 8% after their big stock split surges.

Slurp

Campbell's make-or-break Millennial soup moment

Cream of Mushroom Mondays... followed by Tomato Bisque Tuesdays. Campbell was feeling like Souperman back in March after people started stocking up on its pantry classics. The pandemic sales jump was driven by Millennials buying soup, "a trend that many believed was not possible," according to Campbell's CEO. Now, he believes in his shelf.

  • +1%: The quarterly sales growth Campbell posted in March. Sounds underwhelming — actually fantastic for a company whose soup sales have fallen 8 of the past 9 years.
  • +17%: Campbell's wild June quarter growth. People hoarded its pantry products including: Snyder's pretzels, Goldfish crackers, and Pop Secret popcorn (claaassic Netflix lineup).
  • +12%: What Campbell just reported for its latest quarter. Sales of soups, Prego sauces, and V8 juices soared 19%. Despite those tasty numbers...

Campbell stock fell 7% Thursday... That's because demand for its products is slowing after the months-long surge. Campbell’s CEO hasn't lost hope: soups and broths are still being used to cook "more modern" dishes (think: Chicken Noodle + cauliflower rice). But are cauli recipes enough to hold onto the Millennial shoppers gained during the pandemic?

Customer retention is hard... especially when your customer growth was fueled by pandemic panic. Campbell is expecting its sales slowdown to continue as we return to a lifestyle that doesn't involve can-hoarding. Young people are eating out more often and eating fresher foods — more frequent grocery trips, less once-a-month hoarding splurges. Campbell hasn't done much Millennial-friendly culinary innovation to retain its new cohort of Soupers.

Build

Samsung is building Earth's largest drug manufacturing plant (Samsung does a lot)

Hold the (combusting) phone... We spot a trend. Kodak wants to manufacture drug ingredients. Nestlé bought a biotech company. Samsung... is building a $2B drug plant. The massive Korean conglomerate, most famous for Galaxy phones, also has a massive drug-manufacturing arm. Because if you don’t have a drug-related division during a pandemic, what are you even doing?

  • Samsung entered the pharma game late, but has aggressively expanded as corona drug manufacturing needs heat up. Now it's working on potential COVID treatments.
  • Samsung Biologics' manufacturing orders nearly 3X'd to $1.5B last quarter. “Covid-19 is giving us more opportunity than crisis” — empathetic leader of Samsung Biologics.
  • "Super Plant": Not a plant-based burger company. Samsung is building a $2B drug manufacturing plant that'll be the largest in the world when completed in 2022.

Getting AP Bio flashbacks... The award for most complex corporate structure goes to Samsung. Its Biologics biotech division makes meds for some of the world's largest pharma companies — yet it's just one of many stars in Samsung's corporate galaxy.

  • Samsung consists of ~80 companies with different stocks traded on the South Korean stock market.
  • Samsung covers over a dozen industries including: life insurance, ship building, resorts, fashion, and asset management. Even Bezos can't keep up.

Samsung does a lot... But in the US, Samsung's largely overshadowed by Apple. Apple lets you get rid of Safari as a default browser on iPhone and the crowd goes wild. Samsung releases a foldable glass phone and the hype is... not really hype. But Samsung sells more smartphones globally than any other company. It also runs some of the world's largest biotech and building companies — and it makes up 11% of South Korea's economy.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Rejected: Airbnb reportedly turned down an offer to merge with Bill Ackman's SPAC, saying it prefers going public via traditional IPO.
  • Checked: Noticed that your paycheck is fatter? Your employer might be participating in President Trump's payroll tax deferral (you'll still have to pay up on April 30th, though).
  • Smoked: E-cig maker Juul is planning to cut over half its employees and is considering pulling out of Europe and Asia.
  • Booked: Facebook will halt new political ads during the week before the November election, hoping to fend off last-minute misinformation.
  • Whopped: Burger King unveils its "touchless" restaurant concept, complete with solar panels, outdoor seating, and lots of drive-thru.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Friday

  • Friday: The big August jobs report.

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple

ID: 1322825

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
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World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.