Friday May.07, 2021

💉 Vax patents for all

_"Your Uber and Udon has arrived" [E+ via GettyImages]_
_"Your Uber and Udon has arrived" [E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Tinder is rolling out 48-hour, in-app events called "Vibes." #WeMetOnVibes

The techy Nasdaq bounced back yesterday after a four-day losing streak. Investors smell recovery: jobless claims fell below 500K last week for the first time during the pandemic.

💐 Mother's Day: It's this Sunday (you're welcome).

Vax

Moderna drops its first profit, and the US (potentially) drops Covid-19 vaccine patents

Another one... (DJ Khaled). On Wednesday, Pfizer delivered the first Covid-19 vaccine profit. Yesterday, Moderna delivered its first profit — period.

  • $1.7B: Moderna's Covid vax sales from January to March — a major glow up from last year, when it made just $8M in total revenue.
  • $1.2B: Moderna's big-shot profit. Pfizer did double Moderna's vax sales, but its vax profit is estimated at just $900M.

Terrible earnings timing... On Wednesday, the Biden admin announced it supports a WTO proposal to temporarily waive companies' intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines, to help end the pandemic. The US was originally opposed, saying IP protection provides a key incentive for innovation. If the proposal passes, others could develop shots using public patents (without getting sued). Vax-makers' recipes would be open to all.

  • The reasoning: New Covid cases are hitting global records. But as of mid-April, 87% of vax doses distributed went to wealthy countries. The WTO thinks sharing IP would allow poorer nations to develop vaccines.
  • The investor response: Moderna shares have plunged 10% since Wednesday, and Pfizer shares dropped 5%. J&J, which isn't taking vax profits, barely budged.
  • The company response: Pfizer's CEO said patent-sharing would discourage companies from developing products for the next pandemic. The two who decided to profit from the vaccine (Pfizer and Moderna) were the fastest to get FDA-authorized. Moderna said the proposal won't affect it because it's already not enforcing Covid patents during the pandemic.

Recipes are valuable, but don't forget the chef... and the ingredients. Patents don't come with the ability to produce complex drugs at scale. Pharma companies say public patents won't help curb the pandemic short-term, because of the challenges that come with producing Covid vaccines. Including: setting up complex factories, securing scarce raw materials, and hiring skilled employees to operate new tech. Even Moderna and Pfizer haven't been able to scale fast enough to meet demand.

Eats

Uber scores record bookings thanks to Eats (but it's prepping for the post-delivery life)

Call an XL... for the big stacks. Uber's bookings reached an all-time high of $19.5B last quarter, up 24% from last year. But don't call it a ride-hailing company — it's a food delivery company now.

  • Uber's "core" rides biz saw bookings plunge 38% last quarter.
  • Uber's food delivery bookings more than doubled from a year earlier.
  • Wild stat: Uber Eats now accounts for more than 60% of Uber's biz.

Pizza > People... If you thought your ride to Girls' Night got pricier, that's because it did. Uber and Lyft are dealing with driver shortages. Prices are rising as riders return, while some drivers still prefer delivering pizza over (potentially contagious) people. Now, both are offering drivers incentives to return as demand picks up.

  • Uber is already prepping for the decline of the delivery life. Last week, it rolled out new features to further merge Eats with rides in-app.
  • Uber + Udon: You can now pick up Uber Eats meals en route to your Uber destination (#inception). Or get Eats delivered by your home ETA.

The gig cloud still looms... Despite Uber's food delivery win, total sales fell because of new driver benefits in the UK, where it was forced to reclassify gig drivers. Aaand: it's still unprofitable. Last week, US Labor Secretary Walsh said he believes gig workers should be classified as employees in many cases. This week, the Biden admin said it's blocking a proposal that would make it easier for gig companies to continue classifying workers as independent contractors. Down the road, these stances could put the gig economy in danger (again).

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: Millions of Americans are unemployed, but companies in industries like construction and restaurants still can't find enough people to hire.
  • Divan: Millennial furniture icon Wayfair saw its customers soar 57% from last year. The stock jumped 6% yesterday.
  • Cluck: Wild demand for spicy sandwiches and hot wings has caused a chicken shortage — now restaurants are paying record prices for poultry.
  • E-Paid: PayPal's quarterly net profit more than 10X'd from 2020. Sales grew 31%, while your wallet hasn't felt paper cash in a year.
  • Unmasked: Former FDA Chief Scott Gottlieb said the CDC can consider lifting indoor Covid mask mandates now.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Tripadvisor, Adidas, BMW, and IAC
  • Monthly Employment Report drops

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Moderna and Uber

ID: 1

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative