Wednesday Oct.14, 2020

📱 The iPhone-palooza wrap

_When Apple goes overboard with the Augmented Reality_
_When Apple goes overboard with the Augmented Reality_

Hey Snackers,

First we had sold-out "flights to nowhere." Now we have sold-out pop-up restaurants in grounded airplanes. The takeaway: people really miss plane food.

Earnings Season kicked off yesterday with stocks dropping on some yikes-worthy results and a fresh corona surge. US COVID-19 hospitalizations hit the highest level in nearly six weeks.

Drop

Apple's new iPhones include 5G, AR lasers, and no charger

Life could be a screen... Apple's seeing to it. The Fruit already killed the audio jack and the home button (RIP). Now, don't expect free headphones or even a charger to come with the biggest iPhone screen ever (FYI, Apple measures screen sizes diagonally). The new iPhone 12 lineup:

  • Pro Max: Beats every iPhone with its big screen energy. At 6.7-in, it's larger than half an iPad. It's also the priciest of the 12s, starting at $1,099.
  • Pro (no Max): For normal-sized hands, there's the $999+ 6.1-in screen Pro.
  • Normie: The base model also has a 6.1-in screen and starts at $799.
  • Mini: This adorable $699 model has a 5.4-in screen for that back-pocket fit.

Throw some wheels on it... And you've got yourself a self-driving iPhone. Unlike the two-eyed Normie and Mini, the Pros have three cameras. But the Pros also have lidar sensors, which shine lasers at objects to measure their distances.

  • It's the same tech that self-driving cars use to build out 3D maps of environments (to avoid plowing into a tree).
  • Apple's using it for augmented reality (AR), so that you can move digital furniture around in your new room, or put your friends' Snap filters to shame.

This could be the biggest wave of iPhone upgrades... iPhones used to make up 70% of Apple’s revenue. Last quarter, they made up just ~44% of total sales. But now all four iPhone 12 models are 5G-enabled. That faster tech could convince millions to cave for better streaming, chatting, and browsing (which we're doing more than ever).

Fly

Delta loses big: it could be an even bigger warning for other "Reopening Stocks"

Diet Coke or OJ?... Delta CEO Ed Bastian will take a double whiskey neat with that earnings report. July to September is usually Delta's peak travel quarter, but instead of swimming in Mykonos you were streaming My Octopus Teacher. Do you want the bad news or good news first, Ed?

  • Bad (terrible): Delta lost $5.4B last quarter, compared to a $1.5B profit for the same quarter last year. It burned through $11B in the last two quarters.
  • Good (better): Delta cut its cash burn to $18M/day last quarter from $27M/day in the previous one. It retired dozens of planes to trim costs.

First to land... While Delta's passenger sales were down 83%, Bastian says there are signs that demand is picking up going into the holidays. Plus, its co-branded Amex card is doing better than competitors, helping offset flight losses. Delta was the first airline to report — and it might go downhill from here:

  • Delta was more profitable than other airlines going into the crisis, so it has avoided involuntary job cuts (so far).
  • American and United are cutting 32K jobs since federal airline aid expired on October 1st.

Reopening stocks fly together... These travel, hospitality, and movie theater stocks benefit disproportionately from murmurings of a return to normalcy. But when one falls, the others usually follow. American and United shares plopped on the Delta earnings. More anti-reopening news bruised other stocks yesterday, too: Carnival, AMC, and Marriott. Like airlines, these companies are hoping stimulus medicine and/or a vaccine will come to the rescue (ASAP).

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Musked: Tesla cuts the price of its Model S in the US from ~$75K to ~$72K — it also trimmed prices in China.
  • Recovered: President Trump's doctor says he has tested negative for COVID-19 on consecutive days.
  • Vax: Johnson & Johnson's sales jumped from last year, but the stock dropped since it paused final-stage testing for its COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Greenback: JPMorgan Chase's profit (surprisingly) rose 4% last quarter thanks to boosted trading revenue from its investment unit.
  • Pop: America's largest movie theater chain AMC says it could run out of cash in 2020 if people continue to Netflix-and-hiberate.
  • Drive: Uber and DoorDash have been rampantly campaigning for "yes" on Prop 22 (so many emails). Their futures are riding on election day.

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Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple, Uber, Amazon, and Delta

ID: 1366989

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.