Cron

Enter “Omicron”: How the new variant could affect markets, and what we know so far

Snacks / Monday, November 29, 2021

"A variant of concern"... Omicron. Global markets plunged on Friday after the world was alerted to the new Covid variant. The heavily mutated variant, first detected in South Africa, has spread to at least 15 countries. So far, fewer than 200 cases have been reported globally, with none in the US — but Dr. Fauci said US cases are inevitable. What we know:

  • The bad: The World Health Organization said Omicron poses a “very high” global risk, since existing vaccines may not work against some of its mutations. Also: Early data suggests it may be more transmissible than other strains.
  • The not so bad: Symptoms seen so far have been “extremely mild,” according to Angelique Coetzee, the South African doctor who first flagged the strain.

Stow the passport... At least 46 countries, including the US and the UK, have already imposed travel restrictions from some African nations. Japan and Israel have closed their borders to all foreigners. Still, US stocks rebounded yesterday after President Biden said there was no need for panic, and there would be no lockdowns (for now). Pfizer and J&J said they’re prepping for the possibility of updating their vaccines. Moderna shares jumped 12% after the vax maker said it’s working on an Omicron-specific booster.

  • Bear case: Depending on Omicron’s severity, it could sidetrack economic recovery, depress markets, and exacerbate supply issues — similar to Delta’s impact on the global economy.
  • Bull case: Omicron’s effects could be curbed since vax makers say they can update their shots to fight it. Activist investor Bill Ackman said Omicron could boost stocks if symptoms prove to be less severe than those of other variants. Ackman = same guy who warned investors that "hell is coming" in March 2020.

Investors prefer the devil they know... And there's still plenty we don't know about Omicron. The WHO said it would take weeks to understand Omicron's health implications. Fed Chair Jerome Powell believes Omicron is a threat to the economy and could boost inflation uncertainty. Still: Markets dipped when the Delta variant appeared, then rebounded to record highs as its effects unfolded.

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