Monday Apr.15, 2019

Streaming and ride-hailing just grew up

_When you're waiting for Pinterest and Zoom's IPOs_
_When you're waiting for Pinterest and Zoom's IPOs_

Tiger's new look: mock turtleneck or golfleisure? Nike's glad we're asking.

The busiest 4-day week of the year starts now — 8 companies want to IPO before Easter (@Pinterest, @Zoom). And the start of earnings season last Friday already has the S&P 500 just 1% away from a record high.

In the meantime, we found some freebies to nourish you through Tax Day.

Highs

Who's up...

"Amazon of Africa"... The continent's first tech IPO on the New York Stock Exchange is Jumia. Shoppers in 14 African countries (which represent 74% of the continent's consumer spending) can hit the ecommerce site to buy a dress. Or get Lagos' finest suya skewers delivered. Or book flights to Cairo. Or rent a Nairobi 1-BR flat. It's a mashup of plenty of US apps and is still plenty unprofitable, but the stock still surged 75% on Day #1.

More on Jumia in today's Snacks pod.

Suit up... Big banks kicked off earnings season, and JPMorgan set the tone with record revenues and profits. As interest rates rise, so has its lending biz, which helped profits at its "Main Street" divisions surge 19%. Then CEO Jamie Dimon added some flair: The current economic expansion "could go on for years."

Extra legroom for all... First JetBlue rose after revealing its first transatlantic flights land in London by 2021. Then Delta's profits surged 31% last quarter. We broke down the two key reasons for Delta's jump (aka, its "Profit Puppies"):

  1. Biz/1st class: Fancy bookings rose 8% — And even though they're just about 1/3 of the seats, they make up about half the ticket revenue. Strong economy ==> more upgrade splurges.
  2. The credit card: Delta's plastic partnership with Amex was extended another 11 years — That card's expected to bring in $7B annually for Delta, and reportedly makes up 35% of profits.
Lows

...And who's down

New vs. Nostalgia... Netflix fell 4.5% Friday after Disney's Netflix-killer was revealed: Disney+ (Mickey's shares hit a record high the same day). Disney's strength is its library of timeless hits: Star Wars, The Simpsons, Toy Story, and other OG titles. And just as Netflix raises the price for its most popular plan to $13/month, D+ arrives at a binge-able $6.99.

Fashion beat function... Under Armour dropped 4% on a single day after an annual survey showed people just aren't into it: UA's ranking dropped to 5th place in the basketball category and 7th in "casual." The report slammed UA for lacking innovation (too much ath, not enough leisure), just as Adidas signed Beyoncé as its creative partner.

Out of battery... Panasonic may pause plans to expand battery production at Tesla's Nevada "Gigafactory 1." Its investment in Elon's China-based "Gigafactory 2" could be off too. Tesla dropped 4% as investors worry the joint venture drama's a sign of uninspiring car sales.

Disrupt

Streaming video & ride-hailing just grew up

Millennials broke Wall Street... Big corporate names made big moves to cater to cord-cut and car-less customers last week. Investors appreciated Disney acting like a tech company but punished Lyft for acting too much like one.

Disruption + Profits. It’s complicated... Video-streaming and ride-hailing were born to break things. Profits were an afterthought. But investors' feelings shift when the companies move from the pre-disrupt to post-disrupt era.

  • Streaming: Disney blessed us with an insane library of throwbacks, blockbusters, and TV-ish shows for silly cheap ($6.99/month), and shares popped 11% Friday.
  • Ride-hailing: Since the IPO rush to buy Lyft drove the stock to $88, shares fell last week to under $60. And Uber’s IPO paperwork Thursday didn't help — Uber lost nearly $2B last year, and (by certain complex measurements) its revenue growth slowed.

Streaming's getting baby treatment. Ride-hailing has to grow up... Investors showed they’re still cool with one's unprofitability, but they're losing patience with the other.

  • Disney earned Simba-worthy respect for its magically unprofitable pricing for video streaming (ESPN+ and Disney+ are expected to lose money until at least 2023).
  • But since Lyft and Uber (let's go with "LUber") have been replacing local taxis for a decade, investors are ready for them to stop losing billions of dollars.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: 6 tips to negotiate more salary after a job offer (#5. Truth.)
  • Life: 3 ways to resolve a fight in under 60 seconds
  • Money: Why your tax refund is smaller (here's what to do about it)
  • Venture: Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey doesn't eat for days — Why do founders aggressively self-torture?
  • Crypto: A solution to Bitcoin's energy waste (hint: Use it to warm buildings)
  • Do: "Festify" your Spotify playlist into a music fest poster. Then show everybody

This Week

Disclaimer: The author of this Snacks owns Tesla shares

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Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24