Thursday Sep.17, 2020

🍿 Mulan + Tenet = corona-flops

_Not looking forward to meeting with the film investors_
_Not looking forward to meeting with the film investors_

Hey Snackers,

Authorities have confirmed that snakeskin is not a valid face covering, "especially when still attached to the snake," after a man wore a live snake as a mask. And you thought bandanas were edgy.

The Fed signaled that interest rates will stay near 0 through 2023 to stimulate the economy. We're more likely to borrow, spend, and invest when interest rates are low (think: car loans and credit card bills). Stocks still dipped yesterday.

Watch

Mulan & Tenet: the 2 biggest pandemic movie theater releases basically failed

Antiviral opening weekend... Not in a good way. Two blockbusters dropped this month and the turnout was... underwhelming. First came Warner Bros' much-hyped thriller "Tenet." AT&T's CEO (AT&T owns Warner Bros) had bravely insisted that Tenet would have a theatrical release. The Christopher Nolan mega-flick was delayed three times before dropping at US theaters on Labor Day Weekend. The result:

  • Budget: Tenet cost $205M to produce, not including marketing costs. It needs to reach ~$400M in sales to break even.
  • Earnings: Tenet made $9M during LDW. So far, it has made less than $30M in the US and ~$200M globally — a far cry from making up its costs.

Stream it?... Disney took a different approach with blockbuster "Mulan." Instead of debuting in US theaters, Disney released Mulan on Disney+ for $30 — good call, since Mulan's global theatrical release was an epic fail. On top of the pandemic, Mulan got hit with a boycott. It has brought in just $38M from theaters but it cost Disney ~$300M.

  • Disney hasn't released the numbers, but according to a report "Mulan" made $33M from Disney+ on opening weekend. For reference: record-breaking "Trolls" made $95M within three weeks of dropping on Apple TV.
  • One research firm is estimating that as many as 9M users purchased "Mulan," a $270M windfall for Mickey. But Disney has been tight-lipped, only saying that it was "very pleased."

The world wasn't ready for theatrical releases... yet. Tenet and Mulan's theatrical flops have scared off studios. Now Warner Bros is delaying the “Wonder Woman 1984” theatrical release, and Disney is reportedly delaying the release of Marvel’s “Black Widow.” These films have mega-budgets, and it'll take a mega-turnout to turn a profit — that doesn't seem to be possible right now.

Deliver

Amazon expands its world domination plans to the suburbs

Claaassic Amazon... Amazon couldn’t fulfill its two-day delivery pledge earlier this year during the pandemic shipping surge. Its solution: take over the suburbs. The Zon has already hired 175K new workers during the pandemic. Now it's reportedly planning to open 1.5K small delivery hubs in cities and suburbs across the US.

  • The Present: Amazon packages leave from warehouses in rural, non-city/suburb areas.
  • The Future: Amazon warehouses are next to your local coffee shop, your grocery store, and inside your mall.

Out of the many things that Amazon is aggro about... it's most aggressive with delivery times. Amazon will deliver ~70% of its own packages this year from its own warehouses (sorry UPS). Being closer to you means being able to deliver faster. That's more important than ever for Amazon:

  • Walmart and Target are leveraging their thousands of stores as distribution centers for same-day delivery. Their constant proximity to you is their biggest strength over Amazon.
  • Walmart just launched its $98/year Prime competitor, aka Walmart+ — it includes free same-day delivery.

This is the next phase of Amazon's domination... Besides Whole Foods, some delivery vans, and annoying Alexa, you don't really see Amazon in your non-digital life. Instead of empty department stores in malls, we could be seeing Amazon warehouses soon. Amazon's digital empire will take a clearly visible form in our day-to-day lives.

Bank

Goldman tries to appeal to regular people with the "buy, learn, apply" strategy

Jordan Belfort has left the chat... Wall Street OG Goldman Sachs is known for investment banking and underwriting IPOs (all while smoking cigars in the Hamptons). Its clients are mostly companies, governments, and billionaires — not retail customers like us. But Goldman has been trying to get more consumer-y and #relatable:

  • Marcus: Goldman's brand for regular people. The website launched in 2016 with savings accounts and loans. Goldman finally shipped an app in 2020.
  • Clarity Money: The personal finance app Goldman bought in 2018 for $100M. It helps you track your Trader Joe's sprees and subscription spend (so relatable).
  • Marcus Insights: The free financial management tool Goldman just launched in its Marcus app. You link your other bank accounts to get a full picture of your finances (yep, like Mint).

Lizzie McGuire has joined the chat... For existing Marcus customers, the Insights tool is a value-add. Once Marcus makes it available to non-customers, it can use it as a growth strategy. Marcus could also leverage the info it gains on your spending habits from linked accounts to target you with other products. Next up on its retail roadmap: checking accounts and investing.

It's the "buy, learn, apply" acceleration strategy... Goldman could've built a tool like Clarity money itself, but buying it accelerated its roadmap to #relatability. Also: Goldman didn't want to build a whole product from the ground up without knowing if it would succeed. Now it's using its learnings from Clarity to launch insights in Marcus.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Cold: Snowflake shares more than doubled in the biggest software IPO ever. The cloud platform went public yesterday (ticker: "SNOW").
  • Faulty: A congressional (238-page) report faults Boeing and the FAA for the 737 Max crash disasters.
  • Test: Gauss and Cellex are announcing the 1st rapid COVID-19 test that can be fully performed at home (no lab or doctors involved).
  • Play: The Big Ten changed its mind about canceling its 2020 college football season, aiming to kickoff an 8-game season in late October.
  • Wow: Oracle’s deal to be TikTok’s new “trusted technology partner” could bring it more than $1B in annual cloud revenue.
  • Cell: AT&T considers offering cheaper cellphone plans subsidized by ads — $5 to $10 less on your phone bill in exchange for your attention.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Scholastic

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon, Walmart, and Disney

ID: 1334894

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Tech

AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

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Business

What’s on your mind?

Meta is rolling out a new chatbot, Meta AI, to its 3 largest social media properties: Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

On Facebook the usual search bar for some users has been replaced with “Ask Meta AI anything” — a prompt that could give millions of people their first ever interaction with an AI chatbot.

Meta has been increasingly focused on AI ever since ChatGPT exploded into the mainstream in late 2022. In earnings calls, the focus has never been clearer: Facebook execs made ~10x more references to artificial intelligence than the Metaverse, the company’s previous primary focus which prompted its rebrand in October 2021.

Metaverse mentions

Meta has been increasingly focused on AI ever since ChatGPT exploded into the mainstream in late 2022. In earnings calls, the focus has never been clearer: Facebook execs made ~10x more references to artificial intelligence than the Metaverse, the company’s previous primary focus which prompted its rebrand in October 2021.

Metaverse mentions

When the chips are down

Super Micro Computer, which produces the kind of servers fueling the AI boom, declined to pre-announce earnings. This spooked investors and rattled the entire chips-producing sector. That sent Super Micro plunging 23%, and dragged down lots of their customers and suppliers down with it.

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.