Tuesday Dec.24, 2019

"Cute Tesla"

_Serious electric "trucktion"_
_Serious electric "trucktion"_

Hey Snackers,

45 million. That's how many times All I Want For Christmas Is You was streamed last week.

While Mariah Carey's hit turned 25, stocks rose on a Hanukkah gift from China: Lower tariffs on 850 US-made goods, from frozen pork to microchips. It's a positive step towards the "complete-phase-1-of-the-trade-deal" New Year's resolution.

Electrify

Rivian's massive 4th fundraise of 2019 could make electric trucks mainstream (with help from Amazon)

“Cute Tesla”... (new bumper sticker for Rivian drivers). The electric pickup truck startup snagged $1.3B in fresh money from T. Rowe Price and existing investors like Ford and Amazon. That cash will facelift an old Mitsubishi plant in Normal, Illinois (great name) to start mass-ish producing e-pickups in 2021. Here's America's State of the Car (and their value by market capitalization):

  • Detroit's Big 3: GM ($53B), Ford ($37B), Fiat-Chrysler ($29B — FYI, Chrysler merged with Fiat in 2009... and is mega-merging with Peugeot right now).
  • Electric's Big 2: Tesla ($72B) and Rivian (somewhere between $5B-$7B — it's still private, so we don't know its valuation for sure).

Cars cost more than coders... App-based tech startups raise tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to hire programers and install kombucha taps. But Rivian raises money in the billions to build factories, fill them with high-tech robots, and hire engineers. All those costs are why fundraising for hardware cars is bigger than for software tech.

You want traction? I’ll show you truction... Venture capitalists, Ford, and Amazon had invested a huge $2.2B in Rivian already. To get this extra $1.3B, Rivian probably had to show them some traction — evidence that it's worth investing more into. How about this truction:

  • Amazon announced an order in September for 100K Rivian electric delivery vans — Bezos needs them to achieve Amazon’s “Climate Pledge.”
  • Those will be delivered from 2021-2030 — they'll become both steady revenues and rolling billboards for Rivian as Amazon delivers packages nationwide.
Bet

Sports betting goes public as DraftKing heads to the big leagues

Who ya got?... Sports betting phenom DraftKings announced it's dropping out of college to join a publicly-traded company that will be worth $3.3B total. The daily fantasy sports app lets you bet real money — and claims it dominates 60% of the fantasy market.

The Flying V, the Hail Mary... Now add Triple Reverse Merger to the list of all-time great plays. Instead of IPO'ing like most private companies do to bring their stocks to public markets, DraftKings will take a different route to the pros: Merge with an already-public company. Here's the new team:

  • DraftKings is the QB: Provides the core product — an app for new-school fantasy (bet $$$ on individual players) and old-school sports betting (wager that teams will win or beat-the-spread).
  • SBTech is the lineman: Provides the fundamental technology for bookmakers to set the bets.
  • Diamond Eagle is the coach: This is the already publicly-traded big shot with plenty of cash to spend on merging all 3 companies for (what it hopes will be) a game-winning lineup.

2 critical moments shaped DraftKings into the player it is today... and both were focused on American consumers:

  • 2016: DraftKings tried to merge with rival FanDuel to dominate the fantasy sports market — but US regulators blocked the plan that would've created a sports betting monopoly as powerful as the '98 Yankees.
  • 2018: The Supreme Court ends a federal ban on sports betting — since then, 13 states have legalized the industry and 6 more have legislation to join them.
  • The future: The sports betting industry is expected to hit $13B in annual revenue by 2023.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Departing: Boeing's CEO steps down after a disastrous year
  • TikToking: TikTok is looking for a global HQ outside China to shake off that whole controlled-by-the-Chinese-government perception
  • Spy Chat: Popular Emirati messaging app ToTok (not TikTok) was just removed from Google and Apple's app stores because it's actually a government spying tool, not a charming dance app
  • Paid: 20 states will raise their minimum wage rates on January 1 (hourly pay bumps range from 10 cents to $1.50)
  • Big Block: Blockchain startup Ripple is now valued at $10B after its latest funding round as it tries to become the crypto for cross-border payments
  • Record: Saturday was the single biggest day of sales in US history, with a record $34.4B splurged by procrastinating shoppers (us. Basically us).

Tuesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Tesla, Amazon, Google, and Apple

ID: 1044377

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Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.