Friday Feb.19, 2021

🗞 Facebook says "no news, friends"

_The new newsfeed_
_The new newsfeed_

Hey Snackers,

Dunkin' is selling wedding merch now, including ring bearer pillows and veils. If you're not feeling your fiancé, it's the perfect chance to say "I Donut."

Markets dipped yesterday as weekly US jobless claims hit a four-week high of 861K. But investors are optimistic about the likelihood of $1.4K stimulus checks.

Checkmate

Facebook bans news in Australia: a convenient "no politics" experiment?

No more doom-scrolling?... Last year, Australia proposed a bill to address power imbalances between the news media and digital platforms (read: Google and Facebook). The solution: force Google and FB to pay news outlets for displaying and linking to their content. The proposed law is expected to pass next week.

  • Google responded by making payment agreements with Australian publications, including News Corp.
  • Facebook responded by banning news in Australia. This week, FB announced that it'll no longer allow Australians to share or view news content. Woah.

Stick to the baby panda videos... and forget the breaking news on the Vegemite shortage. FB has banned all news-related links in Australia, including stories from international publishers. Also: FB users worldwide can't share or view news stories from Australia. The aggressive move could backfire if users see it as a dangerous threat to free expression. For now, it's mainly bad news for publishers:

  • Hot off the press: News outlets used to make $$$ selling papers filled with ads. When everything went digital, so did their ads. But Big Tech ads attract much more spend since they're targeted and have wider reach.
  • Hot off the feed: In 2019, 52% of Americans got their news on Facebook. And FB got all the $$$ from the surrounding ads. But Facebook says publishers shouldn’t complain, because FB drives traffic to their sites.

This could be convenient for Facebook... By rejecting Australian news, it's setting a money-saving precedent. But it's also embarking on a nationwide experiment. FB has received massive heat for circulating polarizing content and fake news. CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently said that people don't want politics to take over their feeds. In Australia, FB has the chance to run a no-political-news experiment. If "no news" boosts earnings or user happiness in Australia, FB could expand it. If it hurts ad sales or engagement, FB might pull a Google and pay up.

BHM

Beauty brands pledge to be more inclusive, but there’s still a long way to go

First, the primer... The BLM movement put a renewed spotlight on racial discrimination in many areas of society, including the beauty industry. Beauty companies have a history of marginalizing communities of color through non-inclusive marketing and products. In the past year, companies like Estee Lauder, L’Oreal, and Unilever have been criticized for marketing “skin-lightening” products. LVMH-owned Sephora has been accused of racial bias in stores — including instances of associates not being able to do “dark makeup” for women of color. Recently, beauty retailers have started taking steps to improve inclusivity:

  • Ulta pledged to double its assortment of Black-owned brands in 2021. Sephora pledged to increase its Black-owned brands from eight to 16 this year (out of its total ~300). And both are expanding employee training to fight unconscious bias.
  • Sephora also signed the 15% Pledge, which calls on retailers to work toward committing at least a population-proportional 15% of their shelf space to Black-owned brands.

Building a foundation... In 2017, Rihanna’s makeup brand Fenty Beauty was hailed as groundbreaking for releasing 40 foundation shades. Many of its darker shades sold out in days. That success led to the “Fenty Effect”: Big brands like Dior and CoverGirl followed, launching 40 foundation shades each. But a December 2020 study from Sephora shows there’s still much left to be done:

  • 3 in 4 retail shoppers feel that marketing fails to showcase a diverse range of skin tones, body types, and hair textures.
  • 2 in 3 shoppers think stores fail to deliver an equally-distributed assortment of products for different tastes and preferences.
  • 2 in 5 US shoppers have experienced unfair treatment on the basis of their race or skin tone.

Beauty brands have a major opportunity... to foster inclusivity, help break down societal biases, and cater to an underserved market. In 2017, African Americans spent considerably more money in the general beauty marketplace than other groups. Black spending power in the US is expected to hit $1.5T by 2021, and is projected to grow significantly in the years ahead. Black consumer choices also have a halo effect that influences mainstream tastes. Addressing racism and catering to Black consumers is key to brands’ success. It’s also an opportunity for beauty companies to move the industry and its standards forward.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Stim: The House is aiming to pass its $1.9T coronavirus relief bill by the end of next week.
  • $$$: Walmart promises raises for ~425K employees after posting impressive holiday sales.
  • Spiked: Sam Adams parent Boston Beer saw its quarterly profit more than 2X from 2019, as Truly spiked seltzer continued to drive growth.
  • Cloud: Dropbox's quarterly sales topped $500M for the first time thanks to the WFH cloud-storage boom.
  • Robo: Google's Waymo begins testing its robo-taxi service with employee volunteers in San Francisco.
  • Awk: Peloton is fighting to cancel trademarks for the terms “spin” and “spinning” so that it can use them freely in marketing.

Friday

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Walmart and Google

ID: 1531619

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Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

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7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.