Tuesday Apr.27, 2021

📀 Exxon's Blockbuster moment

_The pawrents should leave more often [Robbie Augspurger via GettyImages]_
_The pawrents should leave more often [Robbie Augspurger via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Tinder just introduced plant-based dating. Nothing sparks a connection like tempeh.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index hit a fresh record yesterday, its first since February. Investors are looking forward to earnings from the "Big Tech 5" this week. Meanwhile, Tesla posted its seventh-straight quarterly profit.

Busted

Exxon faces the “Blockbuster Alarm” on oil — change or go extinct

Shots fired... Exxon reportedly was just dealt a major warning by its activist investor, hedge fund Engine No. 1. Activist investors = Wall Street's aggro helicopter parents. Engine No. 1 said Exxon faces an “existential business risk” from tying its future to fossil fuels. Unlike Shell and BP, Exxon hasn't vowed to transition away from oil and gas, arguing they'll remain key.

  • Warned: Engine No. 1 thinks Exxon's lack of an energy transition plan jeopardizes its future (and its dividends) in a lower-carbon economy.
  • 110+ countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. Major governments (including CA, Japan, and the UK) said they'll start banning sales of new gas vehicles in the 2030s.

Why you always in the news?... Exxon has been making headlines for its carbon capture efforts. Carbon capture = removing carbon dioxide from the air, then storing it underground. Exxon created a new biz unit to commercialize carbon capture, which it says will be a $2T market by 2040. Oil giants like Occidental and BHP have also invested in the carbon-vacuuming tech. But most of Exxon's $$$ comes from oil and gas... and Engine No. 1 doesn't love that:

  • Last week, Exxon pitched a $100B carbon capture project to help the Biden admin hit its new emissions-slashing target by 2030. The admin reportedly passed.
  • Engine No. 1 said Exxon “touts its efforts in areas like carbon capture,” but they've “delivered more advertising than results.” Burn.

It's the "Blockbuster Alarm"... The call for an existential pivot to be made... before it's too late. Blockbuster clung to VHS and DVD rentals, even while streaming emerged as the future. Now it’s extinct, and Engine No.1 doesn’t want the same to happen to Exxon. If VHS tapes are oil, then streaming is clean energy. Governments will need clean energy (like wind and solar) to achieve their green goals. Engine No. 1 rang the "Blockbuster Alarm" to spur Exxon to go green.

Doggy

The Uber of dog-walking is going public in the furriest gig SPAC merger yet

5 stars for four paws... And throw in a special purpose acquisition corgi. Rover is like Uber, for dogs. "The world's largest" online pet care marketplace connects you to dog walkers, house sitters, groomers, and even play dates for your pooch (similar to Wag). In February, Rover revealed it's going public by merging with a SPAC called Nebula Caravel Acquisition Corp (claaassic SPAC name). And it just dropped some fresh stats.

Meet the pawrents... Pet adoptions soared last year as homebound Americans took in furry friends, boosting pet supply companies like Chewy. For Rover, it wasn't as cute: 2020 sales plunged 49% because a) you didn't need a home sitter, since you were always sitting at home and b) you didn't need a walker, since your dachshund was your only reason to leave the house. Now...

  • Things are looking pup: Rover just reported first quarter numbers that signal a post-pandemic recovery, as you leave your maltipoo for Miami.
  • New customer daycare bookings for puppies were up 64% from 2019, a record high.

We're in the "gig-ify anything" era... Independent workers' wages and participation soared 33% in 2020, as full-timers got laid off and the gig economy boomed (think: DoorDash, Instacart, Fiverr, Upwork). One in four workers are considering quitting their jobs post-pandemic — and many say it's because they want more flexibility (aka: exactly what gig work provides). From Rover's gig-ified pet care, to professional cuddling services (virtual and IRL) like Cuddlist... people are gig-ifying their interests and time at an unprecedented level.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • S3XY: Tesla posted a record quarterly profit of $438M, as sales jumped 74% from a year ago. But the stock fell after earnings.
  • Vax: The EU sues AstraZeneca for failing to deliver on its Covid vax contract, while the US preps to share millions of AstraZeneca doses with the world.
  • Lyfted: Lyft shares jumped on news that it's selling its self-driving division to Toyota for $550M.
  • Oh: The founder of Turkish crypto exchange Thodex has reportedly fled to Albania with $2B of investors’ funds.
  • Drugs: Psychedelic drug-maker MindMed — think: microdose (non-hallucinogenic) LSD — is expected to go public on the Nasdaq today.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Microsoft, Google, Starbucks, Pinterest, AMD, UPS, and General Electric

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Tesla

ID: 1622663

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.