Tuesday Apr.27, 2021

đź“€ Exxon's Blockbuster moment

_The pawrents should leave more often [Robbie Augspurger via GettyImages]_
_The pawrents should leave more often [Robbie Augspurger via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Tinder just introduced plant-based dating. Nothing sparks a connection like tempeh.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index hit a fresh record yesterday, its first since February. Investors are looking forward to earnings from the "Big Tech 5" this week. Meanwhile, Tesla posted its seventh-straight quarterly profit.

Busted

Exxon faces the “Blockbuster Alarm” on oil — change or go extinct

Shots fired... Exxon reportedly was just dealt a major warning by its activist investor, hedge fund Engine No. 1. Activist investors = Wall Street's aggro helicopter parents. Engine No. 1 said Exxon faces an “existential business risk” from tying its future to fossil fuels. Unlike Shell and BP, Exxon hasn't vowed to transition away from oil and gas, arguing they'll remain key.

  • Warned: Engine No. 1 thinks Exxon's lack of an energy transition plan jeopardizes its future (and its dividends) in a lower-carbon economy.
  • 110+ countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. Major governments (including CA, Japan, and the UK) said they'll start banning sales of new gas vehicles in the 2030s.

Why you always in the news?... Exxon has been making headlines for its carbon capture efforts. Carbon capture = removing carbon dioxide from the air, then storing it underground. Exxon created a new biz unit to commercialize carbon capture, which it says will be a $2T market by 2040. Oil giants like Occidental and BHP have also invested in the carbon-vacuuming tech. But most of Exxon's $$$ comes from oil and gas... and Engine No. 1 doesn't love that:

  • Last week, Exxon pitched a $100B carbon capture project to help the Biden admin hit its new emissions-slashing target by 2030. The admin reportedly passed.
  • Engine No. 1 said Exxon “touts its efforts in areas like carbon capture,” but they've “delivered more advertising than results.” Burn.

It's the "Blockbuster Alarm"... The call for an existential pivot to be made... before it's too late. Blockbuster clung to VHS and DVD rentals, even while streaming emerged as the future. Now it’s extinct, and Engine No.1 doesn’t want the same to happen to Exxon. If VHS tapes are oil, then streaming is clean energy. Governments will need clean energy (like wind and solar) to achieve their green goals. Engine No. 1 rang the "Blockbuster Alarm" to spur Exxon to go green.

Doggy

The Uber of dog-walking is going public in the furriest gig SPAC merger yet

5 stars for four paws... And throw in a special purpose acquisition corgi. Rover is like Uber, for dogs. "The world's largest" online pet care marketplace connects you to dog walkers, house sitters, groomers, and even play dates for your pooch (similar to Wag). In February, Rover revealed it's going public by merging with a SPAC called Nebula Caravel Acquisition Corp (claaassic SPAC name). And it just dropped some fresh stats.

Meet the pawrents... Pet adoptions soared last year as homebound Americans took in furry friends, boosting pet supply companies like Chewy. For Rover, it wasn't as cute: 2020 sales plunged 49% because a) you didn't need a home sitter, since you were always sitting at home and b) you didn't need a walker, since your dachshund was your only reason to leave the house. Now...

  • Things are looking pup: Rover just reported first quarter numbers that signal a post-pandemic recovery, as you leave your maltipoo for Miami.
  • New customer daycare bookings for puppies were up 64% from 2019, a record high.

We're in the "gig-ify anything" era... Independent workers' wages and participation soared 33% in 2020, as full-timers got laid off and the gig economy boomed (think: DoorDash, Instacart, Fiverr, Upwork). One in four workers are considering quitting their jobs post-pandemic — and many say it's because they want more flexibility (aka: exactly what gig work provides). From Rover's gig-ified pet care, to professional cuddling services (virtual and IRL) like Cuddlist... people are gig-ifying their interests and time at an unprecedented level.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • S3XY: Tesla posted a record quarterly profit of $438M, as sales jumped 74% from a year ago. But the stock fell after earnings.
  • Vax: The EU sues AstraZeneca for failing to deliver on its Covid vax contract, while the US preps to share millions of AstraZeneca doses with the world.
  • Lyfted: Lyft shares jumped on news that it's selling its self-driving division to Toyota for $550M.
  • Oh: The founder of Turkish crypto exchange Thodex has reportedly fled to Albania with $2B of investors’ funds.
  • Drugs: Psychedelic drug-maker MindMed — think: microdose (non-hallucinogenic) LSD — is expected to go public on the Nasdaq today.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Microsoft, Google, Starbucks, Pinterest, AMD, UPS, and General Electric

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Tesla

ID: 1622663

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Latest Stories

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

Go Deeper with Market Depth

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

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Crypto

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees. 

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees. 

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped

2024-04-17-ai-capabilities-site

AI is getting good at a lot of different tasks

Business

The monkey’s paw curls on endless shrimp

Red Lobster’s shrimp promotions may have contributed to jumbo problems for the company.

The seafood chain is considering a bankruptcy filing to deal with cash flow problems, Bloomberg reports.

Red Lobster has been weighed down by pricey leases and labor costs, but it’s important to remember that it also blamed an $11M operating loss last fall in part on too many people going crustacean-mode on its Ultimate Endless Shrimp deal.

“The proportion of the people selecting this promotion was much higher compared to expectation,” said Red Lobster owner (and seafood supplier) Thai Union Group last year. The chain bumped the price of infinite shrimp by 25%, but Lobsterfest and Cheddar Bay Biscuits may not be enough to save it from Chapter 11.

“The proportion of the people selecting this promotion was much higher compared to expectation,” said Red Lobster owner (and seafood supplier) Thai Union Group last year. The chain bumped the price of infinite shrimp by 25%, but Lobsterfest and Cheddar Bay Biscuits may not be enough to save it from Chapter 11.

Power
Rani Molla
4/17/24

Elon Musk’s car company pays for Elon Musk’s security company

Elon Musk is a rich man who owns a lot of companies. One way he keeps those companies and himself rich is by making his companies support his other companies. Left pocket, meet right.

TechCrunch’s Sean O’Kane dug into Tesla’s latest annual proxy statement to find out the value of these relationships.

Musk’s Tesla bought ads on Musk’s X, aka Twitter, to the tune of $200,000 just through February this year. Tesla also paid X another $200,000 this year and a million in 2023 for “commercial, consulting and support agreements.” Musk’s SpaceX has also advertised on X, presumably helping prop up some of the budget the company has lost from non-Musk advertisers Musk seems hell-bent on driving away. Musk’s Tesla paid Musk’s SpaceX $800,000 to use a private jet and paid Musk’s The Boring Company more than a million dollars for “commercial agreements.”

It also turns out that Musk owns a security company, whose job it is to protect Musk. Naturally Musk’s Tesla paid Musk’s security company nearly $3 million since entering into a service agreement in December 2023. Apparently that represents just a “portion of the total cost of security services concerning Elon Musk,” so presumably Musk’s other companies will be left to foot the rest of the bill.

Musk’s Tesla bought ads on Musk’s X, aka Twitter, to the tune of $200,000 just through February this year. Tesla also paid X another $200,000 this year and a million in 2023 for “commercial, consulting and support agreements.” Musk’s SpaceX has also advertised on X, presumably helping prop up some of the budget the company has lost from non-Musk advertisers Musk seems hell-bent on driving away. Musk’s Tesla paid Musk’s SpaceX $800,000 to use a private jet and paid Musk’s The Boring Company more than a million dollars for “commercial agreements.”

It also turns out that Musk owns a security company, whose job it is to protect Musk. Naturally Musk’s Tesla paid Musk’s security company nearly $3 million since entering into a service agreement in December 2023. Apparently that represents just a “portion of the total cost of security services concerning Elon Musk,” so presumably Musk’s other companies will be left to foot the rest of the bill.

Tech

A social app, but it’s just voice notes on 2X speed

Airchat is basically X meets Clubhouse, and Silicon Valley types are all over it. The social app consists of a feed of audio snippets that plays continuously on 2X speed until you press pause. The speed makes sense: chugging a cold brew and plowing through podcasts on 2X speed is a rite of passage for modern multitaskers.

A surge of new users joined Airchat over the weekend, joining entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk and Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan.

If users don’t want to inhale voice notes at hyper speed, there is a somewhat hidden way to adjust Airchat’s cadence, but it’s an intriguing feature. User-generated audio has struggled to break out of a niche, so targeting the personality that wants to listen to a podcast at twice the speed is one way to make the user experience more efficient.

A surge of new users joined Airchat over the weekend, joining entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk and Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan.

If users don’t want to inhale voice notes at hyper speed, there is a somewhat hidden way to adjust Airchat’s cadence, but it’s an intriguing feature. User-generated audio has struggled to break out of a niche, so targeting the personality that wants to listen to a podcast at twice the speed is one way to make the user experience more efficient.