Tuesday Aug.09, 2022

🦄 Softbank’s frowning unicorns

A frown quarter (STR/JIJI PRESS/AFP via Getty Images)
A frown quarter (STR/JIJI PRESS/AFP via Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

This may be the best summer job yet: British wine retailer Majestic says it’ll pay someone to determine whether wine really tastes better on vacation… by drinking wine… on vacation.

Stocks lost their early gains yesterday after Nvidia’s profit warning, ending the day barely changed. July’s consumer inflation numbers drop tomorrow, and investors have their fingers crossed for signs of deflation, which could calm the Fed’s rate-hiking crusade.

Frown

Softbank lost a record $23B last quarter as its formerly booming tech investments turned sour

Never disappoints on the quirky decks... Japanese investment giant Softbank is famous for its simple but poetic earnings decks, which include pictures of unicorns falling into the "Valley of Coronavirus" (slide 50) and a powerful slide that just says "Many Regrets" (11). To understand the mood of Softbank's latest earnings, check out this frown on slide 4.

  • Softbank reported its largest quarterly loss ever. The mind-numbing figure: $23.4B. Softbank's tech-centric Vision Fund alone lost nearly $22B.
  • Blame plunging tech stocks — from DoorDash to WeWork to Uber — which Softbank was heavily invested in. The Vision Fund has lost $50B in gains from its peak (#WeCrashed).
  • Losses were spread across Softbank’s portfolio of 300+ companies, including Klarna, DiDi (the Uber of China), and Singapore’s superapp, Grab.

The decks are still iconic... but Softbank’s investments have soured. Rising interest rates have crushed high-flying valuations, while China’s regulatory crackdown on tech pummeled Softbank’s investments in Asia. Now Softbank is selling to raise cash and soothe losses:

  • Softbank has sold its entire stake in Uber, Slack, Opendoor, Nvidia, and others. It says it made a $1.5B profit by selling its long-held Uber stake.
  • Cutting back: The Vision Fund approved just $600M in investments from April to June, down from a record $20.6B a year earlier, and job cuts could be coming.

It can be hard to see the downside… when the upside is so in your face. Softbank was riding high when tech was booming. For 2020, it posted a record $46B profit — the highest for a Japanese company, and $5B more than Google earned that year. CEO Masayoshi Son said he’d become "somewhat delirious" when prices soared, and regrets all the $$ he funneled into startups. Now Softbank is imposing discipline to weather the markets’ ups and downs.

#ads

As ride-hailing rebounds, Lyft’s launching an ad biz (feat. in-car tablets) to gain an edge over Uber

Forget the aux cord… Soon you’ll be able to control music in Lyft rides without nervously asking your driver — but you’ll have to watch ads. Yesterday, Lyft announced Lyft Media, a new unit focused on advertising. Ride-hailing demand has roared back to life, and Lyft wants to monetize users’ eyeballs:

  • Brands riding shotgun: Lyft is adding tablets to its drivers’ cars so that brands can serve ads on the go. Think: a Vita Coco ad in the app when you book, and another in the car to the supermarket.
  • New features: Riders will be able to choose music and tip drivers through the tablets. Lyft said drivers will make extra $$ from in-car ads.

Wienermobile ETA… Two years ago, Lyft bought Halo Cars, a startup that makes car-top screens. Since then, Lyft has grown its marketing biz by putting ads on car roofs, bike-sharing docks, and in its app. Think: Oscar Mayer Wienermobiles moving on the Lyft map instead of a car. It’s good timing to appeal to advertisers:

  • More rides = more eyes: Lyft’s stock soared 46% last week after it reported its biggest bump in active riders since the pandemic began. But the stock’s still down 55% this year.

The route less traveled by may make the difference… While Lyft has stayed narrowly focused on rides, Uber has grown its Eats biz into one of the largest food deliverers (and has expanded to everything-delivery). But now Lyft could capitalize on its strength: riders’ eyeballs. While Uber also sells ads, it hasn’t built an ecosystem like Lyft’s. But this month Uber said it planned to expand its ad biz — and that it could hit $1B in revenue by 2024.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Doc: Signify Health shares popped 11% on reports that CVS is trying to buy the healthcare platform. This month CVS announced plans to expand into primary care (think: doc appointments).
  • iLexa: Amazon’s buying Roomba maker iRobot for $1.7B. But regulators could stall the vacu-sition over privacy concerns given that the Zon (and Alexa) would get personal data on millions of homes.
  • Bid: YouTuber turned pro boxer Jake Paul raised $50M to grow his influence-fueled sports-betting startup, Betr, which specializes in “micro-betting” (think: betting on a touchdown vs. the final score).
  • Crunch: Shares of chipmaker Nvidia fell 8% after its quarterly sales came in way below Wall Street’s expectations. Nvidia has suffered from slower gaming-console sales and supply shortages.
  • Clog: Home-appliance maker Whirlpool paid $3B to buy waste-disposal biz Insinkerator (which has a 70% share of the sink market). The food-churning deal is a part of Whirlpool's strategy to drive high-growth businesses.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Marriott, Planet Fitness, Lemonade, Coinbase, Hyatt, and IAC

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Nvidia, CVS, IAC, Uber, Amazon, and Google

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter misstated that the consumer price index was dropping on August 9, 2022. It was set to drop on August 10.

ID: 2345879

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.