Monday Mar.30, 2020

🚗 Attack (the virus). Survive (the economic fallout).

_Meeting in the middle to rescue America_
_Meeting in the middle to rescue America_

Hey Snackers,

Influencers go to extreme lengths for the perfect pic, but some go even further to stop them: an English police force dumped black dye into a picturesque "Blue Lagoon" to discourage Instagrammers from gathering for pictures (and keep them home instead).

US markets ended an eventful week with all 3 major indexes up over 9%. The Dow and the S&P 500 had their best 3-day win streaks in over 80 years, fueled by Congress' approval of a $2T economic rescue bill (signed into law Friday).

Intervene

Government intervention intensifies: Attack (the virus). Survive (the economic fallout).

It's a two-way street.... Both directions are critical to America's coronavirus-fighting situation, but they run opposite each other. The Health Effort includes economic lockdowns and social distancing, but also redirecting certain sectors of the economy to support healthcare workers. The Economic Effort alleviates biz-killing side effects of the Health Effort. Last week, the US gov intervened big to support both sides:

  • The Health Effort: Corporations like 3M, Ford, and GE already mobilized to fill the massive ventilator and mask/respirator shortage that endangers healthcare workers. Then on Friday, the White House finally invoked the Defense Production Act — a wartime measure letting Presidents order private biz to produce stuff in short supply.
  • President Trump is forcing General Motors to manufacture ventilators. Many more invocations of the DPA will likely be necessary to effectively tackle this virus with the weapons we need.
  • The Econ Effort: Social distancing and stay-at-home orders literally shut down businesses — so the 3.3M Americans who filed for unemployment in just one week was shocking, but not a surprise.
  • In response, Congress passed $2T of government spending into law. The bill includes direct payments to around 90% of Americans, beefed up unemployment benefits, and huge amounts of loans/grants for large/small biz. Plus, $100B for hospitals and $150B for state/city governments to keep handling the crisis.

We need to plug the hole in the boat before adding another motor... This economic pain is a symptom of our health problem. The $2T spending bill will result in direct-deposit checks to Americans who made under $99K (or under $198K for couples) — for those who didn't give the IRS direct deposit info, you'll have to wait for a check.

  • The "stimulus" bill was really a "survive until the virus is contained" bill. Rent, groceries, and other essentials is likely where most of the money will go.
  • Today, the "15 Days To End The Spread" was scheduled to end. The President announced last night they will extend through April 30th, aka it's the "45 days (at least) to End the Spread".
Highs

Who's up...

Just Do It (online)... Nike stock jumped 28% last week after its online sales surged 36% last quarter. Buuut... overall sales in China fell for the 1st time in 7 years, ending a 22 quarter streak of double-digit percentage growth. Now 80% of Nike’s China stores are reopened as the outbreak has moved on to the rest of the world — We’ll have to wait for its next report to see if ecommerce can save it again while its stores in the US and Europe are closed.

High on social distancing... Pot producers are finally enjoying a sales boom, as lockdown-panicked shoppers stock up. Recreational weed sales in CA, CO and OR jumped 50% in one week, while Canada's gov-run online weed store saw a 100% spike in 2 weeks. After a couple years of post-legalization underwhelming demand, producers can now off-load piles of unsold pot. Tilray shares soared 125% over the week while Aurora Cannabis and Canopy jumped over 20%.

Lows

...and who's down

Being world famous ain't easy... Coca-Cola had to suspend almost all production at its India factories after a nation-wide lockdown of the country's 1.3B citizens. Coke's supply chain is "creaking around the world" as shutdowns make it harder to even get ingredients through borders. Plus, Coke's biggest customers (movie theaters, restaurants, sports arenas) are mostly closed for business, so it's expecting a 2020 sales slowdown.

So many eyes, so few dollars... Facebook and Twitter are cherishing massive usage surges in this viral distancing era (virtual communication = only communication). Messaging across FB's apps has jumped 50%, while daily Twitter fingers got 23% more active. But while people need social media more than ever, advertisers never needed it less. Companies won't waste precious marketing bucks on ads when no one's shopping. So FB and Twitter can't translate usage surge into their digital lifeblood: ad $$$.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Detach: 8 happy places to visit on the internet when you can't handle any more coronavirus-related content (apparently Flea has an IG book club)
  • Track: A nifty coronavirus dashboard to track the most affected sectors/stocks in real-time ("Stocking-up Stocks" is a thing)
  • Learn: Bear Markets — what they are, and how long they've lasted in the past
  • Accomplish: 8 tech projects you could tackle instead of finishing the entire Netflix catalog
  • Build: 5 (virtual) ways to learn new career skills for free during the pandemic — webinars have never sounded so good
  • Plan: Is there a good money plan for a recession? The Cut's financial advice columnist answers

This Week

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Twitter and Lululemon

ID: 1133917

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