Thursday Oct.24, 2019

Zuck & Elon. Huge day for both.

_Elon announcing Tesla's earnings_
_Elon announcing Tesla's earnings_

Hey Snackers,

Not blue. Not red. Zuck went with the strategic maroon tie for his big day on Capitol Hill.

Stocks inched up Wednesday on a ton of earnings reports — now we get to chew on Amazon's today.

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Testify

Zuckerberg tells Congress he won't launch Libra without US regulators' blessing

No-friend zone... Facebook's Zuckerberg put a suit on for like the 2nd time in his life, showed up in DC, and got poked by politicians on the House Financial Services committee. He should've worn body armor. The representatives scolded Facebook's political ad policies, misinformation on newsfeeds, and even discrimination at the company. Then, finally, they talked about Libra. For hours.

A digital-only currency for the billions of Facebookers worldwide... Mark tried to explain how his proposed cryptocurrency, Libra, should be regulated and how it'll operate. It was a struggle. But we did learn this:

  1. How Zuck's pitching this to skeptical politicians: Do goodyness. “There are more than a billion people around the world who don't have access to a bank account, but they could through mobile phones if the right system existed.”
  2. How Zuck plans to make money: Through ads. "Buy with Libra" is a powerful button that would increase the value of ads on Facebook, letting it charge more.
  3. How Zuck will launch Libra: This one's key — Only with US regulators' blessing.

That last promise could doom Libra... The majority of the un-banked Zuck wants to help? They live outside the US — but Libra is now at US regulators' mercy. That's totally different than Facebook's move fast and break things past, or Uber's entire expansion strategy. So far, politicians aren't impressed — the top Republican on the committee put it simply: "I’m not sure we learned anything new here as policy makers."

Ride

Six Flags stock drops 12% after sales barely budge in most important quarter

Fun fact... Six Flags' name is actually inspired by the real 6 flags that have flown over its home state of Texas. Less fun fact: Founded in 1961, Six Flags claims that it's the world's largest "regional" theme park (cut out the "regional" and it's #7 on the list). This week, Six Flags shared its earnings from a major moment:

  • Big year: It's aiming for a 10th consecutive year of record sales.
  • Biggest quarter: 40% of its sales come during the 3rd quarter — July through September — when school's out and parents realize camp doesn't cover every single summer day.

Must be this high for investors to be happy... Six Flags shares plummeted 12% after announcing that 14M visitors showed up, waited in lines, and then waited in more lines last quarter. That's just 3% growth in Six Flags attendees since last year, and revenues only inched up 1%.

This isn’t an industry problem — it’s a Six Flags problem... Disney's theme park revenues surged 7% last quarter — that's driven by splurge-worthy new attractions based on Star Wars and Avengers. Earth's #2 theme park, Universal Studios, just whipped up Harry Potter land and Jurassic World sections too. Their character ecosystems make them true theme parks — Six Flags is still a roller coaster park with 35-second-long thrills.

Cruising

Tesla unveils a surprise profit (and a bunch of things are "ahead of schedule")

Best-in-class PDF formatting... As frequent readers of Tesla earnings reports, we appreciate the company's new slide layout (the old earnings letters were impossible to read). Tesla shareholders appreciated the actual substance of the 3rd quarter earnings report, boosting the stock a whopping 20% on these key updates:

  1. Model Y is "ahead of schedule": The Goldilocks model is bigger than Model 3, smaller than Model X. Americans love this type of crossover SUV, and production's now expected to start summer 2020.
  2. China is "ahead of schedule": Tesla's building full production capabilities to serve the biggest market (by far) for electric vehicles. The gigafactory in Shanghai materialized in just 10 months, now ready for production.
  3. It's profitable (!): Tesla's yet to have a full year of profitability, and even quarterly ones are collectors items for Tesla stock owners.

Tesla's supposed to be setting records... It's 16-years-old, but company-wise it's still in puberty. Tesla's adding new plants and should be setting sales records each quarter. While the number of cars delivered did hit an all-time high, revenues actually dipped last quarter from $6.8B to $6.3B. Tesla says that's because more customers are leasing — apparently that satisfied investors.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Freebies: Spotify is dishing out Google Home speakers to its premium subscribers because it wants your ear-tention
  • Lovely: Tinder's new "Swipe Night" show worked — total Tinder matches jumped 26% on days when the episodes were released
  • 10010110: Google announces "Quantum Supremacy": a super-super computer that completes a problem in 3 minutes that would take existing supercomputers 10K years (IBM disagrees)
  • Indicator: Caterpillar's machinery already powers global construction — so its disappointing earnings are interpreted as a reflection of a slowing global economy
  • Revived: FAO Schwarz will open up 2 stores in Europe

Thursday

  • Earnings from Amazon, Visa, and Comcast
  • Europe's Central Bank decides its interest rate policy

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon and Tesla

ID: 992215

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Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

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Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.