This week: Trade War's back

Monday, May 6, 2019 by Snacks
"_Mama always said, trade talks are like a box of chocolates_"

"Mama always said, trade talks are like a box of chocolates"

Last Week’s Market Moves
Dow Jones
26,506 (-0.14%)
S&P 500
2,946 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq
8,164 (+0.22%)
Bitcoin
$5,674 (9.83%)
10-Yr US Treasury
2.523%

All she wanted was a trade deal before Mother's Day.

Now Mom may not get it. Markets stayed at record highs last week on word the US added 263K new jobs in April. Now investors are focused on fresh US-China Trade War shots fired and the Uber IPO this week.

Highs

1. Who's up...

Influencers + Thrones = Champion... Adidas stock hit an all-time high courtesy of a 1-2 punch of numbers: China sales jumped 16% and online sales popped 40%. Now Nike's German rival is adding to its influencer partnerships to kick up shoe sales — a "Game of Thrones" collaboration is here, while the new Adidas athleisure partnership with Beyoncé gets launched this year.

Zuck-Fest 2019... Facebook announced that "the future is private" at the social network's 2-day F8 developers conference. So he focused on FB5 — The new, less-public, blue-free Facebook redesign. It's pushing your posts to Groups and private DMs instead of the public newsfeed. Plus the dating feature "Secret Crush" hits the US this year.

Will work for meat-less... Plant protein pioneer Beyond Meat became first of its breed to hit public markets with the biggest IPO day performance of any company since 2000. Shares soared 167% in its first two trading days on hopes its pea-based recipe will become menu standard (Burger King already features Beyond rival "Impossible Burger" nationwide). But first it faces beef industry lawsuits that claim it's technically not a "meat."

Lows

2. ...And who's down

Blame the sun... Shake Shack's sales jumped 3.6% in the first quarter and it popped out its first Shacks in China (and Rhode Island). But the CEO showed gratitude for the unusually "warm weather conditions" responsible for getting diners into Shacks. Investors weren't happy to hear a good quarter required Mother Nature's blessing.

Sobering... The amount of beer sold by Molson Coors fell nearly 5% last quarter. Amid shrinking beer sales (consumption fell 1% nationwide last year), the solo cup icon is trying to mature: It bought a kombucha company, invested in tea, and just confirmed its joint venture cannabis drinks will hit Canada by this fall (aka, when edibles are expected to be legalized).

Front row view... to concert-booking platform Eventbrite falling 20% last week (the stock is now below September's IPO price). The problem lies with headliner Ticketfly, which Eventbrite bought from Pandora for $200M. The two-year-old acquisition has become a "complex and consuming integration process" that's still not over. And that drama affects Eventbrite growth.

Bombs

3. Trade War shockingly escalates after months of talks

All quiet on the US-China trade front since December... Then this weekend happened. Yesterday, Trump announced two fresh trade war attacks:

  • $200B: The president is increasing the tax we impose on $200B worth of annual imports from China from 10% to 25% this Friday.
  • $325B: The rest of the Made in China stuff we import is currently excluded. But Trump tweet-warned that all that would get punished too "shortly, at a rate of 25%."

Quick reminder: Tariffs hurt importers, exporters, and everyone else...

  • Corporate winners: Made in USA companies that compete with foreign firms for sales to Americans. With tariffs, Whirlpool washing machines snag an advantage because Chinese rivals become more expensive.
  • Corporate losers: American companies that export to China (think Caterpillar's big rigs) suffer from China's retaliatory tariffs. And US companies that import raw materials like steel (like Ford) have to pay for steel + US tariffs now.
  • The next possible loser: Most Apple products are assembeled in China, but fall into the "not tariffed yet" category. Trump's threatened expansion would include your whole drawer of iPhones, Macs, and AirPods.
  • Everyone else (losers): You and us. US consumers pay for tariffs through higher prices on what's imported from China. Picture a "25% off" sale, but in reverse.
THE TAKEAWAY

You thought trade spring was coming?... Bam. It's winter again. One reason this update hurts is because investors were expecting a peace deal this week, based on signals from DC and Beijing — It's a key reason markets are at a record high. Now investors have to re-calculate how continued trade war pain will affect company profits.

  • Up next: A top Chinese trade negotiator was supposed to visit DC on Wednesday. Now he may cancel...

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Work: There are 3 types of office "social brokers" — Which one are you?
  • Life: The trick that helped 96% of WWII pilots fall asleep in 2 minutes
  • Money: Warren Buffett's investing advice: "Never listen to people like me"
  • Venture: 3 things Silicon Valley VC Benchmark Capital looks for in a startup
  • Crypto: 'Project Libra' — Facebook's secret plan to build a cryptocurrency network
  • Do: 6 days 'til Mother's Day. Get on it.

This Week

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Beyond Meat, Roku, and Amazon.

Subscribe to Snacks