Thursday Apr.16, 2020

📱 Return of iPhone SE

"_Look, I can type with one hand_"
"_Look, I can type with one hand_"

Hey Snackers,

A 99-year-old British WWII vet set a goal to raise $1.2K for the National Health Service by his 100th birthday (April 30) — he's now raised over $6M by walking daily laps of his garden.

Stocks dipped on weak bank earnings and some concerning econ data: Retail sales plummeted a record 8.7% last month (clothing/accessories alone fell over 50%), while NY's manufacturing activity plunged to an all-time low.

Release

Welcome (back) iPhone SE — but did Apple just cannibalize itself?

Don't judge an iPhone by its cover... Remember iPhone SE? It's that little rectangle which you could actually operate one-handedly without spraining a finger. Apple released it in 2016, then stopped selling it in 2018. Now, it's shockingly resurrecting iPhone SE for 2020, starting at the (relatively) lower price of $399.

  • Looks: Pretty much the same as the iPhone 8 — a 4.7-inch screen with a frame around it and a home button with Touch ID. The real change lies on the inside...
  • Specs: Better camera equipped with 4K video and portrait mode. Also boasts a more powerful processor with the new A13 Bionic chip (sounds legit). Apple says it put "the brains" of iPhone 11 Pro in the body of SE.

What interested us most was the timing of this launch... Given the COVID-19 crisis, this might not seem like the best time to ship a new product. Apple thinks it's a great time:

  • With the economy in shambles, it makes sense to introduce a lower-cost phone. The new SE is $200 cheaper than the next "cheapest" iPhone (and many Android models). A low-cost, high-performance phone could thrive right now.
  • With most Apple stores closed, people can't try before they buy. Buying iPhones online becomes more attractive with a lower price and newer product — Apple's trying to drive excitement for online orders with this launch (people get hyped on pre-orders).

Is Apple cannibalizing itself?... Cannibalization occurs when a new product is so irresistible it steals sales from your other (often higher-priced) products. Tesla's Model 3 stole sales from its Model S. But Apple probably did a lot of research on this risk and decided that:

  • More Upgrades: iPhone users might be more likely to upgrade from their old phones after the launch of SE, with that volume covering lost sales from pricier models.
  • More Market Share: With this lower-priced option, Apple might convert some Androiders — Google's Android still controls 70% of the world's cell phones.
  • But if fancy new iPhone users change to the lower-priced SE instead, that's a problem for Apple.
Bailout

Airlines finally get their $25B bailout — now you (kind of) own 10 airlines

The "B" word has been thrown around a lot... But now airlines are finally getting their Big B: a $25B bailout from the US government. 10 airlines — including Delta, United, and JetBlue — will share the $25B to pay their hundreds of thousands of employees. Here's what this bailout looks like:

  • 70% grants (aka, free money): The airlines won't have to repay this. By taking the money, airlines are agreeing not to layoff workers until at least September, which means the gov doesn't have to spend taxpayer money on unemployment checks for them — instead it gets to continue collecting income tax on those paychecks.
  • 30% loans: 30% of the package will have to be repaid over 10 years. Airlines wanted only grants (duh) and the gov wanted loans, so this is a compromise.
  • The Treasury also gets stock in the airlines, so Americans collectively (kind of) own around 1% of those companies.

Many (or all) airlines would likely go bankrupt... Without this bailout, that is. That's why it was a key part of the $2.2T stimulus package. With near-zero travel demand and high fixed expenses, airlines are quickly burning through the small cash cushions they have:

  • 96% of the cash generated from airlines' profits over the last decade was returned back to shareholders through dividends and stock-boosting buybacks — now airlines won't be allowed to do buybacks until September 2021.
  • In February, Delta generously dished out $1.6B (or 33% of its 2019 profit) in bonuses to employees. But now, passenger volume for airlines in the US is down 95% from a year ago — airlines are expected to lose $314B this year in global sales.

It's not necessarily bailout or bust... Even when airlines go bankrupt (no bailout), they can bounce back — 66 American airlines have gone bankrupt since 2000, including United Airlines in 2002 and Delta in 2005. But bankruptcy is a big hit to investors, since the stocks usually go to zero. If airline employees lost their jobs, the government would have to pay unemployment benefits — so it's shelling out $$$ either way.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Chatty: Epic Games-owned video chat app Houseparty added an impressive 50M new users over the month — that's 70X larger than its typical monthly gain in some markets.
  • Legit: A Pentagon watchdog says Microsoft's $10B JEDI Contract cloud win over Amazon seems legit, months after Amazon sued saying the decision was biased.
  • Check: This new IRS website lets you check the status and expected delivery date of your stimulus check — the IRS has already begun sending $1.2K checks to Americans.
  • Sad: Best Buy furloughs 51K employees after a virus-driven surge in home and appliance sales ends — meanwhile, JCPenney might file for bankruptcy.
  • L'Owned: Goldman Sachs' profit plummets 46% as it preps for losses from defaulted loans — but its trading biz snags a 28% bump thanks to a rollercoaster stock market.

Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple, Blackstone, and Delta

ID: 1153854

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.