Friday Feb.05, 2021

💵 Closing the gap

_When you realize Apple Car doesn't allow Spotify_
_When you realize Apple Car doesn't allow Spotify_

Hey Snackers,

The number of chicken wings consumed on Super Bowl Sunday is expected to hit a record 1.4B, according to the National Chicken Council. And Wingstop stock is popping (say it 5X fast).

Stocks hit record highs yesterday as weekly jobless claims fell.

iCar

Apple might release a self-driving EV — it's not the first, but could it be the best?

iPhone on wheels... but you prob won't need the AUX cord. The iCar has been rumored since 2015. Just like with the rest of its products, Apple isn't building/assembling it itself. Now we finally know who the manufacturer might be (spoiler: not Tesla).

  • The news: Apple is reportedly close to sealing a deal with Hyundai-Kia to make an Apple-branded, fully self-driving electric car. Tentative ETA: 2024. Secretive Apple didn't confirm.
  • The deets: The "Apple Car" would be designed in Cupertino... and manufactured at a Kia assembly plant in Georgia. But there's a chance the deal won’t happen.

2 Fast 2 Furious... Apple's first car attempt, "Project Titan," began in 2014 and crashed in 2019. So why is the Fruit trying again? To put it in marketing terms: the TAM is huge. Total addressable market = the total amount of money companies could make selling a specific product/service.

  • $500B: The annual TAM for smartphones. Apple controls more than a 30% share of that, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Katie Huberty.
  • $10T: The TAM for global mobility. Apple would need only a 2% share of that market to match the size of its iPhone biz (it made $66B in iPhone sales just last quarter).

Apple’s not a first mover. It’s a second shaker... Apple's working on a fully autonomous EV... but a bunch of other companies will probably get there first (Google's Waymo, GM's Cruise, and Tesla's Tesla are well on their way). But Apple cares more about being the best than being the first. BlackBerry came before iPhone, but iPhone won. Fitbit came before Apple Watch, but Apple Watch won. Bragi made the first truly wireless earbuds, but AirPods won. And Tesla came before Apple Car... but Apple doesn't care.

BHM

The racial wealth gap: how corporations are helping (in a very specific way)

Mind the gap... 2020 highlighted inequality in America, including one key element: the racial wealth gap. A legacy of slavery and discrimination contributes to the massive gap in generational wealth-building. Segregation affected educational and job opportunities for Black Americans. Redlining, a discriminatory practice that discouraged providing loans in areas with large Black communities, stunted Black home ownership. We’re still seeing the effects of those policies today:

  • Wealth: The typical white family has eight times the wealth of the typical Black family ($188K vs. $24K), and 5X that of a typical Hispanic family.
  • Ownership: Nearly 75% of white Americans owned their homes at the end of 2020, compared with less than half of Black Americans.
  • Income: White workers, on average, are paid more than Black and Latino workers at almost every education level.

Closing the gap... is good not only for society, but also for the American economy: Citi found that if these financial gaps are closed today, $5T would be added to the economy over the next five years. From 2016 to 2019, median wealth for Black Americans grew 33%, compared to 3% for white households. But there’s still much left to be done.

Since 2020... more companies have started to help, through everything from diversity hiring efforts to educational grants and donations. But many of these corporate initiatives aren’t cash giveaways: they’re loans and investments.

  • JPMorgan Chase pledged $30B over the next five years toward loans for Black, Latino, and underserved communities. Citi dedicated $1B to support home and business loans for communities of color.
  • Twitter is investing $100M in "community development financial institutions," which are dedicated to providing lending and banking services to low-income, underbanked customers — many of whom are people of color. Netflix launched a similar effort.
  • ServiceNow created a $100M racial equity fund to promote more lending within Black communities.

Equal access to capital is key... to narrowing the wealth gap. Homeownership has been one of the greatest contributors to wealth creation for families: the average homeowner in 2019 had a household wealth of $255K, compared to the typical renter, with ~$6K. But Black individuals and communities have traditionally been the most likely to be denied access to capital — and Black families are still much more likely to be denied mortgages. That's why lending to and investing in Black communities is crucial to closing the gap today.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Ghosted: Snap beat expectations on earnings and user growth last quarter. But the stock plunged after-hours on a projected loss for this quarter.
  • Pinning: Pinterest's sales soared 48% in 2020 as we mood-boarded our blues away. It grew to 459M monthly users.
  • Shutdown: Myanmar blocks Facebook access after its citizens protested the military coup that ousted the country's elected government.
  • DNA: Genetics testing company 23andMe is going public at a ~$3.5B valuation by merging with a SPAC set up by Richard Branson.
  • Contour: Affordable makeup company E.l.f. saw sales jump 10% last quarter, outperforming larger rivals like Coty and L'Oreal.
  • Rack: Nordstrom expects sales to rise 25% in 2021, and says online sales will make up half of its biz. Customers love the Rack treasure hunt.

Friday

  • January unemployment rate released

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple and Snap

ID: 1512994

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales