Friday Apr.30, 2021

🏫 Biden's $1.8T social plan

_The Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars intensify [izusek/E+ via GettyImages]_
_The Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars intensify [izusek/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Amazon's latest delivery rival: Girl Scouts. They're dropping Thin Mints via drone — watch out, Bezos.

Yesterday, stocks closed out President Biden’s first 100 days in office with the best start to a presidential term since 1933. The S&P 500 is up 11% since Inauguration Day. Last week, jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic began.

Spend

Biden's third big spending proposal could reshape the role of US government

Hey Big Spender... It's a song from a 60s musical – and the chorus of President Biden's domestic policy. On Wednesday, the President delivered his first speech to Congress. Biden detailed an ambitious agenda that could transform the role of the federal government as we know it. The headliner was a $1.8T spending plan, the third of Biden's "big three" proposals.

  • $1.9T: Cost of the massive stimulus passed in March (aka: American Rescue Plan).
  • $2.3T: Cost of Biden's infrastructure makeover proposal (American Jobs Plan).
  • $1.8T: Cost of the social spending plan unveiled this week (American Families Plan).
  • $6T: The total tally, which would largely be paid for by raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy.

It's a big one... The American Families Plan features $1T in spending on things like: free pre-k and community college, and federal paid family and medical leave. $800M would go toward tax credits, including extending the Covid-era expanded child tax credit. The plan would be paid for by hiking the marginal income tax rate for the 1%, and raising investment-related tax rates for those making $1M+ per year.

  • Pros: It could boost consumer spending, increase education, and improve equality of opportunity.
  • Cons: It could reduce private investments and entrepreneurship, increase the national debt, and possibly spur inflation.

Biden’s trying to start a new ~40-year cycle... From 1933 when FDR took office, to 1969 when LBJ left office, the US government's role (and spending on social programs) expanded massively. Since Reagan became prez in 1981, the federal government's involvement in Americans' lives has shrunk. Biden is trying to kick off a new expansion — but that could be tough with Dems' slim majority in Congress.

FCS

McDonald's bounces back to pre-pandemic sales by leaning into fresh trends

McLovin' it... a Superbad reference for a pretty good quarter. McDonald's earnings are fresh out of the fryer: last quarter, US same-store sales soared 14% from 2020, as reopenings and vaccines encouraged eating out. Even better: total global sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The Big Mac has officially made a comeback — but chicken was the real star.

Nothing paltry about poultry... As interest in beef alternatives like plant-based meat grows, chicken continues to be the most popular meat in the US. Fast-food giants are capitalizing by putting a fresh spin on it. Enter: the Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars. Popeyes started the craze in 2019 with its viral sandwich. Now KFC, Wendy’s, and Burger King have joined the fray — and Taco Bell did the most with a fried chicken sandwich taco.

  • McDonald's was late to the FCS wars, launching three fried chicken sandwiches in February this year. Since it controls 30% of the fast-food market, all eyes were on McD's.
  • Result: McD's crushed its sales projections for the Crispy Chicken Sandwich line, while limited-time Spicy McNuggets drove excitement.
  • Fun stat: "Chicken" was mentioned 23 times in its earnings call ("burger" only twice).

Double down on the trend product... Trend products drive fresh sales for old companies — from Popeyes' Chicken Sandwich, to Starbucks' Brown Sugar Oat Milk Espresso. For McD's, the chicken sandwich isn't a sandwich... it's "the beginning of our multiyear chicken journey." McD's CEO said it will use everything in its "arsenal" to drive chicken sales in this fast-food war. And it's also doubling down on another trend product: Famous Orders. Its Travis Scott meal majorly drove digital sales, and a BTS partnership is up next.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Zond: Amazon's sales surged a big 44% last quarter, and profit more than tripled as the ecomm boom keeps booming.
  • Recovery: Consumer and govt. spending fueled 6.4% GDP growth last quarter, the second-fastest pace for economic growth since 2003.
  • Control: China ordered 13 companies, including TikTok-owner ByteDance and Tencent, to follow much tighter regulation.
  • Crypto: Ether, the world’s second-largest digital currency, surged to a record high yesterday as Bitcoin's dominance declined.
  • IPO: UFC's parent company Endeavor saw its shares pop on its first day of trading (fun fact: Ari Gold from Entourage was based on Endeavor's CEO).

Friday

  • Disneyland parks reopen in CA
  • Earnings expected from Exxon, AstraZeneca, and Chevron

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon and Starbucks

ID: 1628989

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.