🏫 Biden's $1.8T social plan

Friday, April 30, 2021 by Robinhood Snacks | Disclosures
_The Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars intensify [izusek/E+ via GettyImages]_

The Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars intensify [izusek/E+ via GettyImages]

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Hey Snackers,

Amazon's latest delivery rival: Girl Scouts. They're dropping Thin Mints via drone — watch out, Bezos.

Yesterday, stocks closed out President Biden’s first 100 days in office with the best start to a presidential term since 1933. The S&P 500 is up 11% since Inauguration Day. Last week, jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic began.

1. Biden's third big spending proposal could reshape the role of US government

Hey Big Spender... It's a song from a 60s musical – and the chorus of President Biden's domestic policy. On Wednesday, the President delivered his first speech to Congress. Biden detailed an ambitious agenda that could transform the role of the federal government as we know it. The headliner was a $1.8T spending plan, the third of Biden's "big three" proposals.

  • $1.9T: Cost of the massive stimulus passed in March (aka: American Rescue Plan).
  • $2.3T: Cost of Biden's infrastructure makeover proposal (American Jobs Plan).
  • $1.8T: Cost of the social spending plan unveiled this week (American Families Plan).
  • $6T: The total tally, which would largely be paid for by raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy.

It's a big one... The American Families Plan features $1T in spending on things like: free pre-k and community college, and federal paid family and medical leave. $800M would go toward tax credits, including extending the Covid-era expanded child tax credit. The plan would be paid for by hiking the marginal income tax rate for the 1%, and raising investment-related tax rates for those making $1M+ per year.

  • Pros: It could boost consumer spending, increase education, and improve equality of opportunity.
  • Cons: It could reduce private investments and entrepreneurship, increase the national debt, and possibly spur inflation.

Biden’s trying to start a new ~40-year cycle... From 1933 when FDR took office, to 1969 when LBJ left office, the US government's role (and spending on social programs) expanded massively. Since Reagan became prez in 1981, the federal government's involvement in Americans' lives has shrunk. Biden is trying to kick off a new expansion — but that could be tough with Dems' slim majority in Congress.


McLovin' it... a Superbad reference for a pretty good quarter. McDonald's earnings are fresh out of the fryer: last quarter, US same-store sales soared 14% from 2020, as reopenings and vaccines encouraged eating out. Even better: total global sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The Big Mac has officially made a comeback — but chicken was the real star.

Nothing paltry about poultry... As interest in beef alternatives like plant-based meat grows, chicken continues to be the most popular meat in the US. Fast-food giants are capitalizing by putting a fresh spin on it. Enter: the Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars. Popeyes started the craze in 2019 with its viral sandwich. Now KFC, Wendy’s, and Burger King have joined the fray — and Taco Bell did the most with a fried chicken sandwich taco.

  • McDonald's was late to the FCS wars, launching three fried chicken sandwiches in February this year. Since it controls 30% of the fast-food market, all eyes were on McD's.
  • Result: McD's crushed its sales projections for the Crispy Chicken Sandwich line, while limited-time Spicy McNuggets drove excitement.
  • Fun stat: "Chicken" was mentioned 23 times in its earnings call ("burger" only twice).

Double down on the trend product... Trend products drive fresh sales for old companies — from Popeyes' Chicken Sandwich, to Starbucks' Brown Sugar Oat Milk Espresso. For McD's, the chicken sandwich isn't a sandwich... it's "the beginning of our multiyear chicken journey." McD's CEO said it will use everything in its "arsenal" to drive chicken sales in this fast-food war. And it's also doubling down on another trend product: Famous Orders. Its Travis Scott meal majorly drove digital sales, and a BTS partnership is up next.

What else we’re Snackin’
  • Zond: Amazon's sales surged a big 44% last quarter, and profit more than tripled as the ecomm boom keeps booming.
  • Recovery: Consumer and govt. spending fueled 6.4% GDP growth last quarter, the second-fastest pace for economic growth since 2003.
  • Control: China ordered 13 companies, including TikTok-owner ByteDance and Tencent, to follow much tighter regulation.
  • Crypto: Ether, the world’s second-largest digital currency, surged to a record high yesterday as Bitcoin's dominance declined.
  • IPO: UFC's parent company Endeavor saw its shares pop on its first day of trading (fun fact: Ari Gold from Entourage was based on Endeavor's CEO).
Snacks Daily Podcast

Amazon just had its best first quarter in history, and Jeff Bezos is getting emotional — he called Prime Video and AWS "our kids"...

Tune in to hear how the 'Zon pulled a Wayne Gretzky.

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  • Disneyland parks reopen in CA
  • Earnings expected from Exxon, AstraZeneca, and Chevron

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon and Starbucks

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