Hoard

BJ's is the underdog outperforming Costco this year in the "Warehouse Wars"

Snacks / Monday, September 21, 2020

Day #182 of no free samples... Sigh. Wholesale clubs are able to offer cheap prices by cutting out the retail middleman, charging yearly membership fees, and selling in industrial-sized bulks. When you think of warehouse clubs, you're probably thinking Costco, Sam's Club, and 30-pound packs of bacon. But smaller East-Coast-based BJ's is outperforming both:

  • +24%: BJ's sales growth last quarter, compared to 3% growth over the past two years. BJ's grew faster than Costco and Walmart-owned Sam's Club.
  • 500K: The "unprecedented" number of new members BJ's has added so far this year. They're shelling out $55/year to be part of BJ's Club.
  • +82%: How much BJ's stock has surged this year — it's outperforming Costco, Walmart, and even Amazon (insert Bezos eye-roll).

BJ's is basically a wholesale grocery... Excellent thing to be during a pandemic/economic crisis. 72% of BJ's sales come from groceries — that's more than Costco and Sam's can say. BJ's stores are smaller, and it has only 200 locations compared to Costco's ~800. But it carries more than double the amount of items thanks to its food-focus (think: 10 varieties of choco milk compared to Costco's Kirkland).

Pandemic winners are recovery laggers... Unless your name is Zoom, pandemic growth spurts likely mean slower sales as things "normalize." Last quarter, people were eating home more, saving up more, and shopping in bulk for fewer grocery trips. BJ's got lucky with its existing business. But now grocery sales are falling as restaurants reopen, and grocery competitor Walmart+ just launched. The bar is higher for BJ's stock gains to continue.

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