Thursday Sep.10, 2020

💍 Breakfast at Tiffany's: Canceled

_When you find out that breakfast is canceled_
_When you find out that breakfast is canceled_

Hey Snackers,

In case you ever wanted to own a piece of David Beckham: his esports company is going public on the London Stock Exchange next month.

The market jumped yesterday for the 1st time since last Wednesday. Tech stocks clawed back some of their losses after the big sell-off.

Bling

LVMH cancels its $16B wedding with Tiffany, conveniently blaming tariffs

Call the caterers and florists... Breakfast at Tiffany's is canceled, along with the whole wedding. French luxury giant LVMH just called off its $16.2B deal to acquire jewelry legend Tiffany. LVMH owns 75 luxie-luxe brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dom Pérignon, Dior, and Fenty. The wedding would've been the biggest ever for the luxury industry.

  • Almost a year ago, LVMH asked for Tiffany's hand. They signed engagement papers for a merger that was to happen no later than Nov. 24, 2020.
  • Then, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (classic) asked LVMH to delay the ceremony to Jan. 6, citing the threat of extra US tariffs.
  • Yesterday, LVMH used Drian's letter to tell Tiffany: "The deal cannot happen. We are prohibited from closing the deal." France says the request was just advice (awk). Now Tiffany is suing.

Très dramatique breakup... to be expected when $16B is on the line. The US has threatened tariffs on luxury French goods in retaliation for France’s taxes on big American tech companies. LVMH is using the possible hit to its sales from tariffs to justify dropping the pricey deal. If LVMH's breakup goes through, Tiffany will have to hop back on the luxury dating apps (Tinder Platinum Gold?).

This isn’t about tariffs - it’s about overpaying... LVMH couldn't have asked for better timing for the letter. It doesn't want to spend $16B on a corona-battered company: Tiffany’s global sales plunged 29% from April to July and 45% the previous quarter. Consumers weren't shopping in key luxury markets, while fewer weddings meant fewer $20K engagement rings. LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault had said Tiffany would “thrive for centuries to come” as part of his company. "Til Death Do Us Part" isn't panning out.

Ping

Slack stock tanks because no one is impressed with its growth

Changing status to "Snoozing"... Slack reported expectations-beating earnings, but investors yawned at the results. Slack's quarterly sales growth came in at 49% — just about the same as the previous two quarters. Investors think it's slacking on growth, so they plunged the stock 14% Wednesday.

The difference between a #channel and a DM... is almost as big as the difference between Slack and Zoom's pandemic growth. Zoom's sales more than quadrupled compared to the same quarter last year and quarterly profit soared 3,300%. They're both WFH winners, so why is Zoom crushing it? Slack has:

  • A longer buying process: Companies that want to switch to Slack are going through the whole buying/negotiation/pricing process with salespeople. Zoom is more plug-and-play — just figure out how to unmute and choose a tropical background.
  • A steeper learning curve: Employees have to learn about channels, pings, bots, DMs, threads, GIFs, emojis, and Slack etiquette. After 2 months Bill is still asking about VPN issues in the #General channel, and Cheryl still never responds in the thread.
  • TLDR: Adding Zoom is like buying a new freezer — adding Slack is like remodeling the whole kitchen.

Slack is the corona-conomy winner that wasn’t... Because of the WFH shift, everyone was expecting Slack to be a major pandemic success story. The stock soared 135% from mid-March to June — now it's back at March levels. Investors corrected for the "expectation vs. reality" disconnect, bringing the stock back to basically pre-pandemic levels.

Type

The next generation runs on Google thanks to Chromebooks

Forget TP and baking yeast... The most in-demand pandemic necessity is a Chromebook. Chromebooks, for the Mac-centric among us, are low-cost laptops that use Google's Chrome operating system and apps. The ~$300 laptops are made by computer OGs like HP and Lenovo. Now that students are schooling from home, Chromebooks are quickly becoming the unofficial laptop of COVID.

  • 5 months: How long some people are waiting to receive Chromebooks, according to a report from The Information.
  • +242%: Best Buy's sales nearly 3X'd last quarter, partly thanks to the fact that Chromebooks were constantly flying off the virtual shelves (still sold out).

Don't judge a Chromebook by its cover... While Apple's sleek MacBooks get a lot of the limelight, Chromebooks are winning in terms of volume. From May to June:

  • Chromebooks made up nearly 10% of all computers shipped globally — that's a 2 percentage-point bump from the same quarter a year ago.
  • Apple’s Mac OS laptops made up just 7%. Microsoft's Windows OS still dominated with an 83% share of shipments.

Google's getting them young(er)... 69% of all computers bought by K-12 schools last quarter were Chromebooks. The low price tag, coupled with Google's free offering of G Suite products like Google Classroom to schools, makes them the most attractive options. Kids are getting familiarized at an early age with Google's apps and ecosystem. By the time they hit the workforce, they probably won't know what an Excel spreadsheet is.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Pot: Aurora Cannabis stock slides on expected sales declines, delayed profits, and massive write-downs.
  • UberEV: Uber launches “Uber Green,” allowing you to request an electric vehicle for $1 extra, and pledges to go zero-emissions by 2030.
  • Battle: Apple countersues Fortnite-maker Epic Games for breaching its regulations on app payments.
  • Vax: AstraZeneca pauses its COVID vaccine trial because of a spinal cord issue in a volunteer. Dr. Fauci said a pause is "not uncommon."
  • Ballsy: Sports-news company The Athletic hits 1M subscribers and is growing faster than ever as the NFL kicks off today.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Peloton and Chewy

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Slack, Apple, and Alphabet

ID: 1327192

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.