Thursday May.09, 2019

Roku owns your living room

_Hogwarts professors appreciate the Times print edition_
_Hogwarts professors appreciate the Times print edition_

Hey Snackers,

The Snuggie (2009). The RompHim (2017). The beach blazer (now a thing). The jacket/towel combo almost distracted Wall Street from trade war drama Wednesday.

Stocks barely budged yesterday as investors awaited today's US and Chinese trade negotiation (it's still on).

Read

The New York Times is almost halfway to its 2025 10M subscriber goal

Above the fold news: Profits for the Times... The New York Times' quarterly earnings were politely reported in a totally fair way by crosstown WSJ. Profits rose 38% to $30M, driven by higher subscription revenue and... rental income from its giant headquarters building. When people are getting news from Facebook, you make money where you can.

User metrics matter... 500K people pay NYT for just its crossword puzzles and cooking recipes. But NYT is a news institution, so let's look at how many humans get all the news that's fit to print:

  • 💻 3.6M pay for the Times digital.
  • 🗞 0.9M still go old fashioned newspaper.
  • 🏆 10M total subscribers is the goal by 2025 (ambitious).
  • 🎧 Bonus episode: 2M people listen to the Times' podcast, "The Daily," daily.

What's black and white and dead all over... The Times' newspaper. Emphasis on "paper." Revenues for digital advertising rose 19%, while ads on huge fold-out pages fell 12%. And it's spending a lot to continue printing those for a declining userbase. Maybe it's for symbolic/historic value — our grandkids should experience a lovely morning stroll through the Sunday Times in its original, unpleasant newsprint paper form.

Partner

Stamps.com plummets 45% because of a breakup

Wasn't meant to be... Stamps.com dropped 45% after cutting its profit forecasts for the rest of the year by nearly half. Blame it on the big breakup between Stamps and the US Postal Service. News of the two moving on from each other was revealed in February, but now we know the financial fallout. It's big.

Wasn't meant to be... Stamps committed to an exclusive relationship with USPS back in 1996 to let you print postage at home with its software. It was good while it was good. But Amazon's 2-day shipping makes USPS 3-7 days look bad. Stamps apparently asked USPS to be more competitive, but USPS wasn't up for it. So Stamps wants to see other people. Here's how it will rebound:

  • The good: It can finally print postage for customers shipping through FedEx, UPS, or DHL, who already deliver your ecommerce everything.
  • The bad: Stamps said yesterday its post-breakup pains are real — it expects sales to fall 8% this year. Analysts thought ending exclusivity with USPS would boost sales, not shrink them.

The real victims here are FedEx/UPS/DHL... Stamps ended things with USPS because Amazon is making moves to become the future of delivery. Jeff Bezos' monster ecommerce platform is leasing 50 cargo jets right now (expected to hit 100) and has capacity for 10,000 branded tractor-trailers. Stamps' affection reveals Amazon's ambitions.

Stream

Roku reveals Disney+ is its cord-cutting buddy

Roku embraces the little guy mentality... It literally subleases office space from Netflix. But it tossed up big numbers Wednesday, with revenues up 51% and the number of active Roku customers jumping 40% from last year to 29M. The best part — The CFO welcomed Disney and others to video streaming: "When they win, we win."

Cord-cutters print money... Roku's direct competitors are Apple TV, Amazon Fire Stick, and Google Chromecast. Those all make TVs smart and streamable. Here's how Roku makes bank:

  1. Ads: Its Roku Channel streams movies and shows free, with ads.
  2. Subscription: The Roku dongle and its Smart TVs watch Netflix more than anything else. When you subscribe to Netflix (or HBO) through your Roku, the dongle takes a cut.
  3. Hardware: The infamous purple dongle and the software it licenses to TV companies.

Roku owns top real estate: Your TV... Americans spend a shocking 4 hours a day watching live TV. Anything that gets more people cord-cutting helps Roku shift that time from live TV to Roku TV that it can monetize. When Disney+ rolls out this fall with classics, Star Wars, Fox, and Marvel for $6.99/month, it could crank cord-cutting up a notch.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • ID'd: Walmart ups its tobacco-buying age from 18 to 21 (failing some FDA compliance checks had something to do with it)
  • Surprise: Workhorse, a small Ohio electric truck-maker, surged 200% (and its website crashed) after Trump tweeted that GM will sell it a factory (GM confirmed it was true)
  • Pivot: Bird, the scooter-share unicorn, is now selling some of its scooters for $1,299
  • Entertaining: Disney earnings beat expectations — and they didn't even include Avengers: Endgame
  • Crypto: Bitcoin — $40M worth — was just stolen from one of the biggest exchanges by hackers
  • Paper: Amazon's newest cashier-free Go store isn't cashless (and it's emphasizing that)

Thursday

Disclosure: An author of this Snacks owns shares of Amazon and Roku

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Tech

AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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Business

What’s on your mind?

Meta is rolling out a new chatbot, Meta AI, to its 3 largest social media properties: Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

On Facebook the usual search bar for some users has been replaced with “Ask Meta AI anything” — a prompt that could give millions of people their first ever interaction with an AI chatbot.

Meta has been increasingly focused on AI ever since ChatGPT exploded into the mainstream in late 2022. In earnings calls, the focus has never been clearer: Facebook execs made ~10x more references to artificial intelligence than the Metaverse, the company’s previous primary focus which prompted its rebrand in October 2021.

Metaverse mentions

Meta has been increasingly focused on AI ever since ChatGPT exploded into the mainstream in late 2022. In earnings calls, the focus has never been clearer: Facebook execs made ~10x more references to artificial intelligence than the Metaverse, the company’s previous primary focus which prompted its rebrand in October 2021.

Metaverse mentions

When the chips are down

Super Micro Computer, which produces the kind of servers fueling the AI boom, declined to pre-announce earnings. This spooked investors and rattled the entire chips-producing sector. That sent Super Micro plunging 23%, and dragged down lots of their customers and suppliers down with it.

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World

Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.