Monday May.24, 2021

🇨🇳 Big Tech: a tale of two internets

_Weekend mood: treasure hunting at Ross [Mordolff/E+ via GettyImages]_
_Weekend mood: treasure hunting at Ross [Mordolff/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Almost exactly 11 years ago, a hungry programmer traded 10K bitcoins for two Papa John's pizzas. Even with BTC's recent plunge, those would've been worth $350M+ today. We hope he got extra cheese.

Stocks ticked down for the week on continued inflation concerns (#flated), but the techy Nasdaq index snapped its four-week losing streak.

Down

Tech earnings are wrapping up for the US and China — but problems aren't over for tech cos

From NYC to Beijing... Big Tech earnings season is (almost) over. This month, Wall Street's "Big Tech 5" – Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebookdemolished results with back-to-back records. Still, the techy Nasdaq index is up just 6% this year — half of the S&P 500 and the Dow's gains. Now, we're looking at China, to see how the world’s other tech epicenter stacked up:

  • Alibaba (aka: the Amazon of China) posted its first loss ever as a public company, though sales soared 64%. Blame a record fine by China’s regulator. Shares are down 7% this year.
  • Tencent is the world's largest video games publisher, and the owner of WeChat (the app for everything). Despite impressive earnings growth, shares have barely budged this year.
  • Pinduoduo is the ecomm app that connects farmers/distributors with Chinese consumers. We'll see how it fared when it reports tomorrow. Shares have plunged 22% this year.

You've been warned... For years, Chinese tech titans were seen as untouchable sources of national pride. This year, China has been cracking down. China ordered 34 of the country's largest tech cos, including TikTok-owner ByteDance, to comply with anti-monopoly laws or face “severe punishment." The scrutiny is hitting companies where it hurts: their share prices and balance sheets.

  • Alibaba was fined $2.8B, while Pinduoduo, ride service Didi Chuxing, and others were each fined $200K for “improper pricing behavior.”
  • Fintech giant Ant Group will likely be overseen by China’s central bank, after regulators halted its mega IPO. Oh, and China wants companies to know that crypto services are still banned.

China is a window... Despite strong earnings, tech stocks are on the struggle bus. While Chinese and US regulation are very different, China's crackdown begs the question of how intervention might change in the US —  where it’s been much more light-handed. Antitrust scrutiny is rising, and President Biden’s FTC pick Lina Khan is a well-known tech critic. While US regulation isn’t likely to look like China’s, more intervention doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

Treasure hunt vibes... Retailers' sales rebounded last quarter, as you attended your first get-together without a virtual background (bye, clouds). TJ Maxx and Ross sales soared past pre-pandemic levels on the "affordable splurge." Target shined as you caved for the floral dresses in the front. Macy's sales jumped 56% from last year, and Kohl's crushed expectations. TBD if pent-up demand will continue as stimulus benefits run out. Macy's CEO thinks it isn't a fluke.

Tim Cook-ing in the kitchen... and it's getting heated. Apple CEO Tim Cook was grilled on Friday as the Epic-Apple trial wrapped up. Cook's testimony was highly anticipated — but anticlimactic. If Fortnite-maker Epic wins the suit, Apple could be forced to give up control of app distribution. Read: customers could be allowed to freely install software on iPhones (not just through the App Store). It could be a make-or-break moment for Apple's antitrust future.

Events

Coming up this week...

Anniversary of George Floyd's death... Tuesday marks the one-year anniversary of George Floyd's murder, which led to months of protests for racial justice across the US. Since then, American companies have pledged to spend $50B on racial equity initiatives. Yet only ~$250M has so far been spent or committed to specific initiatives, according to Creative Investment Research. Stay tuned for more coverage on whether companies have lived up to their pledges.

Buying the lip... Ulta, aka: Sephora's less flashy rival, reports earnings on Thursday. If Ulta's quarter was anything like Estée Lauder's, we can expect that skincare sales thrived, while makeup struggled (eye serum = new eyeshadow). But Walmart saw more sales of beauty products and teeth whitener last quarter. Since the CDC lifted mask mandates for fully vaxed peeps (FVPs), beauty companies are preparing for a "buy the lip" situation. Matte is already rallying.

ICYMI

Highlights from last week...

  • F-150 Lightning: Ford unveiled an electric version of the most successful car in American history (and President Biden took a joyride).
  • Daenerys: AT&T's big experiment in entertainment is over — it's breaking up with WarnerMedia (and GOT).
  • Crypto: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plunged last week — and it's related to Elon, China, and kitchen furniture.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Live: 50 (very short) rules for a good life, courtesy of the Stoics.
  • Learn: What happens to your eyes when you stare at screens all day.
  • Scroll: The world's top 50 influencers across social media platforms.
  • Explore: Leo Tolstoy on kindness and the measure of love.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Lordstown Motors and Nordson
  • Tuesday: 1st anniversary of death of George Floyd. Earnings expected from Nordstrom, Intuit, AutoZone, Urban Outfitters, and Zscaler
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Snowflake, Workday, Pinduoduo, Nvidia, Honeywell, and Dick's Sporting Goods
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Salesforce, Costco, Ulta, HP, Dollar Tree, and Best Buy
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Big Lots and Brookfield Property

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google

ID: 1659790

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Latest Stories

Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

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Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
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4/22/24

AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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