Washington

The US dollar hits its strongest level in decades, creating a win-lose situation for global markets

Snacks / Saturday, October 01, 2022
Pieces of the dollar puzzle (John Lund/Getty Images)
Pieces of the dollar puzzle (John Lund/Getty Images)

Great to be a greenback… When you exchange US dollars for euros, you’re going to get a lot more bang for your buck — literally. The USD is the strongest it’s been in two decades relative to other currencies. The British pound hit a record low against the USD last week, and as of Friday the dollar was stronger than the euro (which had been more valuable for decades).

  • Driving dollar domination: The Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes have made the USD even more attractive to hold, since investors can earn higher returns.
  • The USD's stable rep means it’s historically been viewed as a safe haven, especially during tumultuous times (cough, like now).

Two sided-coin… The USD has long been used as the world's reserve currency for international purchases (~40% percent of transactions are done in $$). That’s why its strength has global implications:

Good for…

  • American tourists: Europe is “on sale.” It’s cheaper for Americans to frolic around Rome, London, and Bali. On the flip side, a strong dollar discourages tourism to the US.
  • US importers: Foreign imports are "on sale” for American companies (think: cheaper Chardonnay in Kansas). Lower prices on Chinese imports are starting to help cool US inflation. On the flip side: it’s bad for US exporters (pricier Pop-Tarts for Paris).

Bad for…

  • Multinationals: S&P 500 companies earned 29% of their sales abroad last year — now foreign earnings are worth less in USD. S&P tech giants earn ~60% of their revenue from abroad (for Apple, it’s nearly two-thirds of sales). Last quarter, IBM , Netflix, J&J, and Philip Morris together lost billions in revenue on the strong dollar.
  • The rest of the world: It’s raising the cost of imported food, medicine, and fuel — hitting emerging economies like Nigeria and Somalia especially hard. It’s making debt pricier (since many countries have to pay back IOUs in USDs). Debt-laden Argentina and Egypt are closer to default.

A strength can cause weakness… While the dollar’s strength is helping tamp US inflation, it’s feeding global inflation and raising the likelihood of financial crises. Still, most economists say the global pain would be worse if the Fed failed to cool inflation at home.

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