Wednesday Jul.01, 2020

🧘‍♀️ Lululemon's $500M Mirror

_Uber rebounding from its European/Grubhub heartbreak_
_Uber rebounding from its European/Grubhub heartbreak_

Hey Snackers,

NASA needs your space doo doo ideas. The "Lunar Loo Challenge" is crowdsourcing space toilet designs from the public. In case you're interested: the lunar throne will have to work in weightless and low-gravity situations. Bonus points for seat heaters.

Stocks jumped again, despite another single-day record for new confirmed coronavirus cases in the US (46K). California, Texas, and Florida ordered bars to close again, and LA and Miami will close beaches over July 4th weekend. The Dow still enjoyed its best quarter since '87.

Marry

Uber could rebound from that Grubhub heartbreak with a $2.6B Postmates marriage

You can't hurry love... No, you just have to wait (until another acquisition target takes the bait). Back in June, Uber had its sights set on a marriage with Grubhub — until European stud Just Eat swooped in with $7.3B. Now, Uber may be learning to love again with much-smaller food delivery rival Postmates...

  • Rebound acquisition: Uber has made an offer to buy Postmates for $2.6B, according to #PFWTM (people familiar with the matter).
  • Intimate wedding: In the mafia-style territory split of the food delivery world, Postmates controls just 8% of the US market.
  • Limited options: There are only 4 big players in the US food delivery market. Don DoorDash leads (and just hit a $16B valuation), while Uber Eats is #3 with 22%.

Better than going solo... Uber wants consolidation because it needs to reduce the aggressive price competition it faces every day. "Promiscuous customers" have turned delivery into a profit-killing promo code battle. But Uber is not the only suitor courting Postmates' hand...

  • An unnamed acquisition company made an undisclosed offer (doesn't sound too sexy).
  • Public investors are potential suitors. Postmates has been busy prepping its IPO (which it filed for last Feb).
  • Now, Postmates has to decide whether to accept the proposal of a bigger corporate suitor, or go it alone on the public market.

In a commoditized market, merging is the best shot at profits... Customers aren't loyal to food delivery brands, so profit-burning promos have been critical for one app to stand out from another. But Postmates is barely competing, while Uber is struggling to keep up with DoorDash. Combining operations could allow Uber+Postmates to raise delivery fees and cut costs. We're having Sprint + T-Mobile marriage flashbacks.

Reflect

Lululemon drops $500M for futuristic home fitness Mirror — LULU+ could be next

Call it flexible hardwear... Or the protagonist of a Black Mirror episode. Lululemon has made the leap from fitness wear to fitness hardware. In its first acquisition ever, Lulu has snatched up home exercise startup Mirror for $500M. Mirror calls itself "The Nearly Invisible Interactive Home Gym." Here's why...

  • For $1.5K, you get a sleek vertical TV that's also reflective (hence, "mirror"). It's kind of like a Peloton for your wall (but without the bike... just the screen).
  • For $39/month (which you have to pay, if not it's literally just a mirror) you get access to live classes with trainers and on-demand workouts. Also: one-on-one live personal training via camera (you pay per class).
  • During lockdowns, home fitness soared. Peloton sales jumped 66% last quarter, and its stock more than doubled in the past 3 months. Lulu wants in on the hype because...

Retail isn't dead... bad retail is. As its stores reopen, Lulu can lure customers back with cool Mirror experiences. Imagine: Mirrors installed in Lulu's 25K sq ft Chicago store offer personalized workouts while you try on new leggings. Or: your Mirror at home lets you purchase your yoga instructor's Lulu top directly from the screen.

The most powerful use case could be LULU+... In addition to providing a more diversified biz model, the Mirror acquisition could be key to strengthening the Lulu "community."

  • Lulu has tested a loyalty program where members (who pay $100+ fee) get special benefits. Think: limited edition products and free expedited shipping.
  • Mirror could be incorporated to create a more attractive premium membership offering. Think: discounted Mirrors and free member-only live workout classes.
  • A Soul Cycle-style community could emerge for Lululemon fans thanks to a Mirror integration (along with recurring monthly revenues for Lulu).
Drop

Oil giants could be facing a big turning point as the energy transition accelerates

Speed up, gas pedal, gas pedal... What the corona-conomy is doing to the fall of the oil industry. At the beginning of the year, oil was trading above $60 a barrel. Then, coronavirus hit and oil demand plunged on a worldwide economic shutdown. Prices went negative for the first time ever in April. Yesterday it was back around $40. But oil giants are losing hope:

  • Shell is writing down the value of its oil assets by $22B. In April, it cut its dividend for the 1st time since WWII.
  • BP wrote down $17.5B of its assets, expecting oil prices to stay low, and Occidental Petroleum is writing down $9B.
  • Exxon is resisting a write-down — but it's getting heat from US authorities who say it's deceiving investors with false value.
  • Chesapeake Energy, the fracking giant, just filed for bankruptcy due to collapsed oil & gas prices (and a fancy hidden wine cave).

Why you gotta be so crude?... The massive write-downs suggest a lot of oil could be left in the ground as a result of the demand slump. They also suggest that its long-term value is in a questionable spot as cleaner energy gains ground. Shell and BP have set targets to transition to net-zero emissions. BP just sold its petrochemicals biz for $5B, meeting its $15B divestment target a year ahead of schedule.

This could be a big turning point for oil... BP says its oil assets are $17.5B less valuable — not because it thinks the economy won't bounce back for a long time, but because it thinks oil won't.

  • The pandemic is accelerating the transition to less carbon-emitting energy alternatives (like electric vehicles).
  • The EU is prepping a $2.5B stimulus package for buyers of eco-friendly vehicles, and Germany is spending billions on subsidies for electric cars.
  • If oil giants start to invest in the energy transition, they could secure a spot in the future of mobility.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Glassy: Alphabet acquires North, a company that makes "smart glasses" similar to the (flopped) Google Glass — the difference is discreet design.
  • Checked: Facebook agrees to an audit of its hate speech controls as pressure from the FB ad boycott mounts.
  • Party: Amazon launches a "Watch Party" feature for co-viewing on Prime Video — the "Netflix Party" made co-viewing popular.
  • iPO: JAMF, a partner that helps companies manage and connect their Apple devices, files to IPO (after 20 private years).
  • Streamed: Google raises the price of YouTube TV by $15/month — the cable streaming bundle will go for $64.99/month.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Uber, Amazon, and Lululemon

ID: 1231525

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative