Bust

With a pandemic Baby Bust looming, Huggies and Pampers go fancy-pantsy

Snacks / Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Hmmmm... You'd think eight months of being cooped up at home would lead to a baby boom, but experts are actually predicting a baby bust. They think the corona-conomy will lead to majorly declining birth rates.

  • Brookings estimates US births could shrink by as much as 500K next year, more than 10X last year's drop (and they're already at record lows).
  • That's bad news for Gerber-owner Nestlé, Pampers-owner Procter & Gamble, and Huggies owner Kimberly-Clark (yes, the TP dispenser one).

Designer Diapér... We're nine months out from the first lockdowns, so baby businesses are strategizing. As births have slowed in the US and China over the years, consumer giants have shifted focus to premium baby items. Parents are having fewer kids, but they're spending more on them.

  • Kimberly-Clark intro'd plant-based, paraben-free Huggies that cost 5X more than the cheapest diaper (#fashion).
  • P&G is selling pricier Pampers that fit like pants (the khakis of diapers). It also partnered with Google for app-connected smart diapers.
  • Nestlé launched a fancy infant milk powder in June (basically oat milk).

When the pie shrinks, raise the price... The baby market is shrinking, so companies are testing how much remaining customers are willing to pay. To make up for sales drops, they're raising prices — like Apple did with the $1,450 iPhone in 2019. How do they justify that? By upscaling products with fancier features. No one needs a four-eyed phone or a cloud-connected diaper. But companies don't care, as long as people will pay.

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